Bank of Japan
"I trust that many of you are familiar with the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it. Yes, what we need is a positive attitude and conviction. Indeed, each time central banks have been confronted with a wide range of problems, they have overcome the problems by conceiving new solutions."
"not a surprise but everyone should be in gold"... "$1500+ by Memorial dAY"... "With gold minus storage cost becoming greater than cash returns could be a long rally. what else is there, bitcoins? think about it"... "Plus Psychology For Gold index growing with euro bank mess, nirP, falling oil, tanking stock markets, yellens slowdown hints."
First, it was The BoJ's utter collapse from omnipotence to impotence. Then came the collapse of The Fed's credibility in the short-term.... and the longer-term. And now it is the turn of Mario Draghi's ECB to face total failure, as the European banking system - the prime beneficiary of "whatever it takes" - has crashed back to pre-Draghi levels.
Negative interest rates act effectively as a hidden tax funneled directly to banks. They are inherently unhealthy. Currently, they could indicate also a measure of unease among two of the four most powerful central banks. If so, that could well escalate.
Central Banks Are the PROBLEM, Not the Solution ... the DISEASE, Not the Cure
Because so much is riding on what so few decide,once the faith in the Central Banks fail, the chances of us getting out of this diminish every second...
Just like two days ago, when for the first time since 2011 the BOJ intervened directly in the USDJPY market, moments ago Kuroda's trading desk once again decided to sell a boatload of Yen, with the key carry pair trading at 111.25 and threatening to take out the 110 support, in the process sending the USDJPY higher by 175 pips in a matter of seconds to just above 113.
"There is excessive debt everywhere and negative interest rates are dangerous... My number one fear? That’s the same as asking me where it will start. When you view the economy as a complex, adaptive system, like many other systems, one of the clear findings from the literature is that the trigger doesn’t matter; it’s the system that’s unstable. And I think our system is unstable... Central Bank models are just wrong"
"The Fed doesn't have a clue!" - We allege that not only because the Fed appears to admit as much, but also because our own analysis leads to no other conclusion. With Fed communication in what we believe is disarray, we expect the market to continue to cascade lower - think what happened in 2000. To understand what's unfolding we need to understand how the Fed is looking at the markets, and how the markets are looking at the Fed.
JPM estimates that if the ECB just focused on reserves equivalent to 2% of gross domestic product it could slice the rate it charges on bank deposits to minus 4.5%. In Japan, JPM calculates that the BOJ could go as low as -3.45% while Sweden’s is likely -3.27%. Finally, if and when the Fed joins the monetary twilight race, it could cut to -1.3% and the Bank of England to -2.69%.
Just as we detailed last week, and it appears Rep. Hensarling has been reading, when pressed on The Fed's legal authority to take interest rates negative, Janet Yellen gushed that "Fed authority for negative rates is still a question." This appears to have been taken as bad news by the market (cutting off the potential easing paths of the future in a world of NIRP), and stocks, crude, USDJPY have all tumbled.
No real buyer guns the markets 20+ points higher in a matter of minutes. Central Banks are getting desperate.
The year continues to be bruising for risk assets and recent attempts at stabilisation have been unsuccessful. After a mild rebound, equities and US credit spreads are again close to their year’s worst levels. In addition to the initial concerns about China and energy, two new issues further weigh on risk sentiment: the slowdown in US growth momentum and the tightening of financial conditions especially in European financial credit.
“Let me be clear with you. YES, it is time to worry, and it may be time to worry a lot. ...something wicked this way comes.”
How the Chinese central bank derailed the yuan and help Donald Trump rose to power.