Bank of Japan
The media trashes Gold all the time... but they never explain why.
“This is just the beginning of a new bull market in the metals...” Ultimately, Boockvar believes that the 2011 highs of around $1,900 for gold are not only reachable, but surpassable, as he reasoned that bull markets historically exceed the previous bull market peak at some point.
Morgan warns about the importance of owning physical gold coins and bars rather than paper or digital proxies for gold and silver bullion and money.
Given the history of intervention and “stimulus”, and more so when it occurs and really re-occurs, any impartial observer would be forgiven if they believed that QEs were actually constant impediments to growth. The proliferation of “stimulus” after the Great Recession correlates only with this downshift in the Japanese economy that cannot be due to demographics. At best, QEs have accomplished nothing at all positive, leaving no trace of something actually being stimulated for all the sustained “stimulus”; at worst, QE is the cause of Japan’s further nightmarish descent.
Negative interest rates are all the rage at central banks, a symptom of the deflation that is slowing spreading worldwide. Explicit or not, negative rates have odd and counterintuitive consequences. Imagine the entire banking system trying to stand on its head, and that's kind of how a deflationary, NIRP-driven world will look. Here are three early signs.
While it most likely is just the usual Friday (past) midnight trial balloon by the Nikkei, a media outlet that has promptly become the BOJ's mouthpiece (recall a week ago the new owner of the FT reported that Abe would delay his 2017 sales tax increase, only to see the premier backpedal when the reaction in the USDJPY was not quite as desired), moments ago the Japanese publication reported that the Bank of Japan will "likely set aside funds for the first time to prepare for losses on its huge holdings of Japanese government bonds should the central bank end its monetary easing policy in the future."
Since the beginning of the year, the greenback has shown it's not almighty after all; and gold - the barbarous relic as some have called it - may be en vogue again? Where are we going from here and what are the implications for investors?
The self-described "magic people" who "give to the markets" are facing a mutiny this morning as Raghuram Rajan, the head of the Indian central bank, admits central banks and governments of rich countries are running out of ammunition for stimulating their economies... but they can never admit as much. Crushing the dreams of "extreme monetary policy"-setters, Rajan goes on to discuss the sanity of 'helicopter money' warning that people will not be 'stimulated' to spend but will question: "What kind of world are we in when the central bank prints money and throws it out of the window?"
Never before have central bankers done so much to achieve so little... and yet they continue to propagandize more of the same...
Another week goes by and another gaggle of Fed guffaws pukes out the same old 'we are data-dependent' meme, the same old 'everything is on track' narrative, and the same old 'bonds are wrong, stocks are right' idiocy. Do they not see what this constant nonsense has done to Kuroda and The Bank of Japan's credibility - propagandizing in the face of overwhelming facts. In order to help those who just can't seem to shake off the "well The Fed said it so it must be true" denial pysche, we offer the following chart...
We have referred to the June 2003 FOMC meeting many times before and we suspect that we will continue to do so long into the future. It was one of those events that should be marked in history, truly relevant to the future developments that became panic and now sustained economic decay. It’s as if the committee members at that time anticipated their current powerlessness – yet did nothing about it. Their preferred course from that moment until August 2007 was relieved ignorance, as Greenspan admitted at the time, " I don’t think we know enough about how the private financial system works under these conditions [sub-1% rates], I don’t believe, that we can construct an effective preemption strategy. Well, we can construct a strategy, but I’m fearful that it would not be very useful."
One day after the biggest jump in stocks in two months on what has still been an undetermined catalyst, overnight global equities did a U-turn with European stocks falling toward a one-month low and U.S. stock index futures declining, as crude oil dropped toward $44 a barrel. A driver the move lower was a sharp reversal in the USDJPY which dropped 100 pips from yesterday's highs which took places just as Goldman predicted the USDJPY has finally bottomed, facilitated by a weaker dollar (also following a Goldman report yesterday forecasting the USD was about to surge).
Japanese banks may soon pay borrowers to accept loans if they can raise funds at even cheaper rates. Negative interest-rate lending is increasingly becoming a reality since the Bank of Japan started levying charges on idle cash. Lenders can now borrow for three months in the Tokyo interbank market at a record-low 6 basis-point annualized rate, versus 17 basis points since the BOJ move in January. They may eventually be able to be paid to borrow and then profit by paying less to lend, according to Credit Suisse Group AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. This is also known as shoving money down people's throats... and then paying them for it.
This Is What The "Main Street Serving" Fed's Wall Street Advisors Told It To Do About Future Rate HikesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/10/2016 15:57 -0400
"U.S. economic recovery remains fragile, and downside risks to the economy are still present. Provided the data improve, the Council believes one or two well-timed and well-communicated increases in the federal funds rate between now and year-end would be prudent to accomplish the Fed’s mandates, enhance central bank credibility, and create policy latitude in the event of an unexpected economic downturn."