Bank of Japan

Mutiny Among The "Magic People" - India Central Banker Admits "The Ammo Is Almost Gone"

The self-described "magic people" who "give to the markets" are facing a mutiny this morning as Raghuram Rajan, the head of the Indian central bank, admits central banks and governments of rich countries are running out of ammunition for stimulating their economies... but they can never admit as much. Crushing the dreams of "extreme monetary policy"-setters, Rajan goes on to discuss the sanity of 'helicopter money' warning that people will not be 'stimulated' to spend but will question: "What kind of world are we in when the central bank prints money and throws it out of the window?"

Chart Of The Day: Bonds Vs Stocks Vs Reality

Another week goes by and another gaggle of Fed guffaws pukes out the same old 'we are data-dependent' meme, the same old 'everything is on track' narrative, and the same old 'bonds are wrong, stocks are right' idiocy. Do they not see what this constant nonsense has done to Kuroda and The Bank of Japan's credibility - propagandizing in the face of overwhelming facts. In order to help those who just can't seem to shake off the "well The Fed said it so it must be true" denial pysche, we offer the following chart...

June 2003 - The Fed's Brief Moment Of Clarity

We have referred to the June 2003 FOMC meeting many times before and we suspect that we will continue to do so long into the future. It was one of those events that should be marked in history, truly relevant to the future developments that became panic and now sustained economic decay. It’s as if the committee members at that time anticipated their current powerlessness – yet did nothing about it. Their preferred course from that moment until August 2007 was relieved ignorance, as Greenspan admitted at the time, " I don’t think we know enough about how the private financial system works under these conditions [sub-1% rates],  I don’t believe, that we can construct an effective preemption strategy. Well, we can construct a strategy, but I’m fearful that it would not be very useful."

US Futures, European Stocks Drop As USDJPY Tumbles

One day after the biggest jump in stocks in two months on what has still been an undetermined catalyst, overnight global equities did a U-turn with European stocks falling toward a one-month low and U.S. stock index futures declining, as crude oil dropped toward $44 a barrel. A driver the move lower was a sharp reversal in the USDJPY which dropped 100 pips from yesterday's highs which took places just as Goldman predicted the USDJPY has finally bottomed, facilitated by a weaker dollar (also following a Goldman report yesterday forecasting the USD was about to surge).

Japan Banks May Soon Pay Borrowers To Take Out Loans

Japanese banks may soon pay borrowers to accept loans if they can raise funds at even cheaper rates. Negative interest-rate lending is increasingly becoming a reality since the Bank of Japan started levying charges on idle cash. Lenders can now borrow for three months in the Tokyo interbank market at a record-low 6 basis-point annualized rate, versus 17 basis points since the BOJ move in January. They may eventually be able to be paid to borrow and then profit by paying less to lend, according to Credit Suisse Group AG, JPMorgan Chase & Co. and SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. This is also known as shoving money down people's throats... and then paying them for it.

This Is What The "Main Street Serving" Fed's Wall Street Advisors Told It To Do About Future Rate Hikes

"U.S. economic recovery remains fragile, and downside risks to the economy are still present. Provided the data improve, the Council believes one or two well-timed and well-communicated increases in the federal funds rate between now and year-end would be prudent to accomplish the Fed’s mandates, enhance central bank credibility, and create policy latitude in the event of an unexpected economic downturn."

The Twilight Of The Gods (aka Central Bankers)

The current financial market volatility increasingly reflects loss of faith in policy makers. Celebrity central bankers are learning that they must constantly produce new miracles for their followers. For the moment, the volatility is confined to financial markets and the effect on the real economy is limited. The ever present risk is of a doom loop where financial market problems lead to banking system weakness which, in turn, feeds a credit crunch and a contraction in economic activity. That familiar movie does not have a happy ending.

The Bank Of Japan Begins Selling ¥1.3 Trillion In Stocks Acquired Over The Years

In a stark reminder, that what central banks buy they eventually have to sell, Japan's Nikkei writes that the Bank of Japan has begun selling equities it bought from commercial banks in the previous decade to ease anxiety over the financial sector. But before some interpret the move as a risk to Japan's stock "market" as the biggest equity backstopper now becomes a seller, concurrent with the BOJ's liquidations Kuroda will offset these divestments with extra purchases of exchange-traded funds, in effect netting out selling with even more stock buying.

Innoculation From The Big Narrative Lie

The following exercise in truth-seeking is intended to inoculate you from the Big Narrative Lie coming soon to a status quo media megaphone near you, that this resurgence in risk assets is caused by a resurgence in fundamental real-world economic factors. We know you want to believe this is true. It’s unpleasant, 8 years after the crisis, to accept the reality that we are mired in a policy-controlled market.

Futures Sink Ahead Of Payrolls, Capping Worst Week For Stocks Since February

Ahead of the most important macro economic event of the week, US nonfarm payrolls (Exp. +200,000, down from 215,000 despite a very poor ADP report two days ago), the markets have that sinking feeling as futures seem unable to shake off what has been a steady grind lower in the past week, while the Nasdaq has been down for nine of the past ten sessions, after yet another session of jawboning by central bankers who this time flipped to the hawkish side, hinting that the market is not prepared for a June rate hike. Additionally, sentiment is showing little sign of improvement due to concerns over global-growth prospects as markets seek to close the worst week since the turmoil at the start of the year.

Has The Long Yen Trade Run Its Course?

Despite an unprecedented amount of monetary easing taking place at the Bank of Japan, the yen has - since the middle of 2015 - been on a consistently strengthening trend versus the USD. As paradoxical as it may seem in a period when the Fed talked about, and then did raise interest rates coincident to the BOJ firing off ever more arrows, the strengthening yen has been the reality. That reality may be about to take a breather, though, as too many investors have moved to the same side of the boat in betting on yen appreciation while the “smart money” is net short the yen.