Bank of Japan

Fitch Cuts Japan's Credit Outlook To Negative

Following Abe's decision to delay the April 2017 increase in the consumption tax, warnings about Japan's rating (recall that Japan's consolidated debt/GDP ratio is the highest in the world at 400%) were inevitable, and moments ago Fitch was the first to come out and while "affirming" Japan's AA rating, it was the first major agency to cut its outlook from Stable to Negative. Expect the other two big agencies to do the same, followed inevitably by downgrades.

Hedge Fund CIO Explains How "This Year's Money Will Be Made"

"This year’s money will be made when the cycle breaks." A stubbornly hawkish Fed could break the cycle, raising rates in a determined fashion, enduring a dollar rally, weaker equities. A persistently dovish Fed could interrupt the cycle, letting asset prices run, supported by a weaker dollar. Or an exogenous shock, like Brexit, could break the cycle too, reorienting the world.

Pictet: "The Pricing And Valuation Of Bonds No Longer Reflects Fundamentals" - Why This Matters

"Wicksellians believe that in today’s climate, where markets are being swamped with money pumped in by central banks via QE, long-term sovereign bond yields need to rise steeply to revert to their ‘natural’ rate of interest. An unexpected spike in inflation might be the trigger for this upward movement. According to proponents of this scenario, bonds would then be sent crashing. Conversely, the Fisherian camp believes that low government bond yields essentially reflect the anaemic state of the economy. Wicksellians are duly offloading their positions in government bonds, whereas Fisherians are building up theirs."

Global Stocks Sharply Lower As Bond Yields Hit New Record Lows; Oil Slides Below $50

Global stocks, U.S. index futures are sharply lower pressured by fears of another day of record low bond yields, as investors start to worry about numerous risk catalysts in the coming weeks, from the Brexit vote to Fed meeting. The Dollar spot index rose for the second day in a row, pushing commodities lower for their first two-day decline since May 24, while WTI has dipped back under $50.

"Deliberately Overblown" Brexit Fears Backfire

As the June 23rd BREXIT (the UK-wide referendum to leave the EU) vote draws near, the polls indicate a close result. Those urging a vote for the UK to remain inside the EU are suggesting increasingly dire economic consequences that would follow a yes vote by the British people to leave. Voices from London, Brussels, and Washington have all put immense pressure on British voters to bend to the will of the elites. To listen to their commentary one would think that apocalypse was just around the corner. But is there any substance to their warnings?

Toyota Issues Bond At A 0.001% Coupon, Japan's Lowest Ever

Overnight a Toyota Motor unit sold yen bonds with the lowest coupon ever for a Japanese company. Toyota Finance Corp issued 20 billion yen ($186 million) of notes at a yield of 0.001%, according to a filing with the nation’s Finance Ministry. That’s the lowest coupon ever for a regular bond by a domestic company that isn’t backed by the government

Bank Of Japan Board Member Warns Of "2003 Shock" Historic Bond Market Collapse

In a somewhat shocking break from the age-old tradition of lying and obfuscation, Bank of Japan policy board member Takehiro Sato raised significant concerns about global financial stability in a speech last week. In addition to raising concerns about Japanese economic fragility, Sato warned that due to the impact of negative interest rates, he "detected a vulnerability similar to that seen before the so-called VaR (Value at Risk) shock in 2003."

Historic Milestone: Negative Yielding Debt Surpasses $10 Trillion For The First Time

The world passed a historic milestone in the past week when according to Fitch negative-yielding government debt rose above $10 trillion for the first time, which as the FT adds envelops an increasingly large part of the financial markets "after being fuelled by central bank stimulus and a voracious investor appetite for sovereign paper." It also means that almost a third of all global government debt now has a negative yield.

Why The G7 May Be Hastening Helicopter Money

Faced with a sharply appreciating yen, and lacking G7 support, Japan may need to take extreme measures. More than three years into Abenomics, and with policymakers running out of options on how to reverse the economy's trend, the Bank of Japan may be forced to intervene with unorthodox and untested policy, such as “helicopter money.”

Global Markets Flat, Coiled Ahead Of Today's Risk Events: OPEC And The ECB

There are just two drivers setting the pace for today's risk mood: the OPEC meeting in Vienna which started a few hours ago, and the ECB's announcement as well as Mario Draghi's press statement due out just one hour from now. Both are expected to not reveal any major surprises, with OPEC almost certainly unable to implement a production freeze while the ECB is expected to remain on hold and provide some more details on its corporate bond buying program, although there is some modest risk of upside surprise in either case.

Abenomics "Death Cross" Strikes As Japan PMI Plunges To 40-Month Lows

Since Abenomics was unleashed on the world (with QQE starting in April 2013), things have not worked out as the smartest men in the Japanese rooms predicted. In fact, with April's final manufacturing PMI printing at 47.7, operating conditions in Japan worsened at the sharpest pace in 40 months... since Abe began his three arrows. Output tumbled at the fastest pace in 25 months and new orders are the worst since Jan 2013. This is the death cross for Abenomics...