Bank of Japan
That the world’s central bankers get a lot of things wrong, deliberately or not, and have done so for years now, is nothing new. But that they do things that result in the exact opposite of what they ostensibly aim for, and predictably so, perhaps is. And it’s something that seems to be catching on, especially in Asia.
There are times you try to connect the dots. There are others where those connections warrant adorning your trusted tin-foiled cap of choice; for you just can’t get there unless you do. This I believe is one of those times. And if correct? What at first might appear apocryphal, may in fact, be down right apocalyptic. And besides, what good is a tin-foil capped conspiracy theory anyhow if it doesn’t have the potential for doom, correct? The implications for everything we now take for granted such as: money, enterprise, global commerce, and a whole lot more may be far closer to a “Minsky moment” than any of us dared to imagine.
Propped up by the Chinese central bank and by a generous Chinese finance ministry, with further hopes a backsliding European economy will mean even more easing by Draghi, the risk on mood is back: "People are willing to take risk again,” Karl Goody, a private wealth manager at Shaw and Partners Ltd. in Sydney told Bloomberg. “People are looking at the selloff this year and saying: enough is enough, there’s been enough pain now."
If the Benjamin is killed, it will “deter illicit activities” they say, apparently taking us all for complete idiots. Very organized criminals all over the world could be heard rolling on the floor laughing their heads off at this pronouncement.
In what could well be a final act of desperation, central banks are abdicating effective control of the economies they have been entrusted to manage. First came zero interest rates, then quantitative easing, and now negative interest rates – one futile attempt begetting another. Just as the first two gambits failed to gain meaningful economic traction in chronically weak recoveries, the shift to negative rates will only compound the risks of financial instability and set the stage for the next crisis.
Shinzo Abe promised the Japanese people a glorious economic recovery, but the economy sucks. Nevertheless, Shinzo Abe wants to stay in power as long as possible and the best way for him to achieve this is to call for snap elections this summer. This presents quite the dilemma. How does Abe prevent his popularity from slipping further in order to give himself a chance of winning early elections? It seems he found his answer. Crackdown on the media by ensuring anyone who dares criticize him or him idiotic, failed polices is fired.
“Leave a million dollars with a bank, and in a year, you get only something like $990,000 back,” Marc Faber, respected publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom Report, told Bloomberg by phone yesterday. “I would rather want to own some solid currency, in other words ... gold” warned Faber.
Seriously - how many more times can a central bankers' policies be exposed for the total sham that they are? After three years (let alone fifteen), there is no basis anymore for “stimulus.” None.
ALL of the so called, “economic recovery” that began in 2009 has been based on the Central Banks’ abilities to rein in the collapse.
Volatility, loss of confidence and central bank impotence stalk the capital markets. Gold pulls back in an expected retrenchment. Equity markets are still digesting what the world looks like. Absence of a strong Chinese domestic economy. A developing economy losing its easy credit. Oil prices adjusting to demand levels indicative of economic activity and, most tragically, the continuing proxy wars fought in the middle east as warmongers continue to slaughter innocent civilians.
We just cannot wait for the next time either Abe or Kuroda utter the following string of words "[stimulus - insert any combination of equity buying, bond buying, money printing, and NIRP] is having the desired effect." For the sixth time in the last 6 years, GDP growth has once again turned negative and while the BoJ balance sheet continues to balloon, so the nation's economy (as measure by GDP) is now shrinking as Peter Pan policy is officially dead.
In response to questions that took issue with the Fed paying banks on excess reserves The Chair seemed not only defensive, but rather perplexed, as to why they were even questioning it to begin with. This line of questioning in my view opened up, and brought to light, the Pandora’s box of Keynesian insight and thought processes now emanating from the Fed. In fact, we're quite sure Ms. Yellen herself didn’t realize just how far she threw the lid open.
"I trust that many of you are familiar with the story of Peter Pan, in which it says, the moment you doubt whether you can fly, you cease forever to be able to do it. Yes, what we need is a positive attitude and conviction. Indeed, each time central banks have been confronted with a wide range of problems, they have overcome the problems by conceiving new solutions."
"not a surprise but everyone should be in gold"... "$1500+ by Memorial dAY"... "With gold minus storage cost becoming greater than cash returns could be a long rally. what else is there, bitcoins? think about it"... "Plus Psychology For Gold index growing with euro bank mess, nirP, falling oil, tanking stock markets, yellens slowdown hints."