Bank Lending Survey

Bond Yields Break Out Around The World As Japan's Record Stock Rally Ends

S&P futures are fractionally in the red while traders await President Trump’s pick for Fed chair and more clues on the fate of tax reform; Asian stocks slide, European shares are little changed ahead of tomorrow's ECB tapering announcement as US 10Y yields finally break out of their multi-month range below 2.40%.

What Selloff: Futures Rebound, Nikkei Extends Record Winning Streak

European shares are modestly lower as investors monitor fluid events in Spain and as focus turns to Thursday’s ECB meeting; US equity futures have rebounded from yesterday's sharp but shallow selloff and are in the green amid rising odds of U.S. tax reform and the imminent unveiling of the next Fed chair while Asian shares rise and Japan extends its winning streak to a record 16 days.

Key Events In The Coming Week: ECB Taper, Q3 GDP And Durables

The main even this week will be the ECB's taper announcement on Thursday where consensus expects the ECB to announce a QE extension of €30bn per month for 9 month until Sep-18, with potential extension after. Net purchases between now and Dec-17 will continue at €60bn per month as planned. To cope with rate hike expectations, the ECB is also expected to strengthen forward guidance.

Global Stocks Hit Record High, Set For Longest Winning Streak Since 2015

With the USD just off 10-month lows, there continues to be an easing of loosening of financial conditions for emerging markets which also supports equities. After decent gains in Asia on the back of positive signs from China this week, MSCI's world stocks index looked set for a ninth day of gains which would mark its longest winning streak since October 2015.

Dollar Tumbles, Euro Soars After Obamacare Repeal Dies; China Intervenes To Halt Rout

The Bloomberg Dollar Index tumbled to a fresh 10-month low after two more Republican defections on Monday night doomed the proposed GOP healthcare plan in the Senate. And while Treasuries rose on concerns about inflationary pressures and the viability of the Trump stimulus agenda, S&P futures rebounded gingerly from session lows, and were up 0.1%

Key Events In The Coming Week: The Summer Doldrums Arrive

With little on the US economic docket in the coming days, this week's focus is on the ECB and BoJ meeting along with minutes from the RBA and the Riksbank. In the US The key economic release this week is housing starts on Thursday. There are no scheduled Fed speaking engagements this week.

Sleepy Overnight Session Interrupted By Chinese Market Turmoil

While it was indeed a generally quiet session (with Japan markets closed), US equity futures continued their run into record territory (ES up 0.1% to 2,458.50), and Europe fractionally lower, the early Monday focus was on the previously discussed turmoil for Chinese markets where despite a solid set of Chinese data small caps tumbled, selling off into the close after further warnings of regulatory scrutiny and deleveraging,

Euro Spikes On Upbeat Draghi Comments, Then Drops On Muted Inflation Outlook

Well that didn't last long:moments after the EUR spiked on Draghi's upbeat economic comments, it has since filled the entire gap and is back to session lows after Draghi talked down Eurozone inflation saying there is no sufficient evidence to alter inflation outlook, and no evidence of a self-sustaining inflation move.

World Stocks Hit All Time High, S&P Futures Rise To Within 1% Of Record

World stocks hit a new record high on Tuesday, with investors still cheering Macron's victory in the first round of the French presidential election, supported by speculation about U.S. tax reform and the overnight report that Trump has conceded on the border wall, eliminating a government shutdown as a potential risk.

Euphoria Returns: European Stocks Soar, Dax Hits Record; S&P Futs Surge In "French Relief Rally"

Risk is definitely on this morning as European shares soar, led by French stocks a new record high in Germany's Dax, and S&P futures up 1.2% after a "French relief rally" in which the first round of the country’s presidential elections prompted investors to bet that establishment candidate Emmanuel Macron will win a runoff vote next month. Asian stocks also surged, expect for China, which suffered its biggest drop of the year, down 1.4%, ending the streak of losses no greater than 1% going back to December.

Will Thursday's Final TLTRO Finally Spark Carry Trades?

On Thursday, the ECB will hold its fourth tender under the TLTRO-II (Targeted Long-Term Refinancing Operations) programme. A large take-up is expected. A poll published by Reuters had a  median forecast of EUR 125bn net borrowing, with estimates as high as EUR 300bn. From a rates perspective, what matters is whether these funds will trigger flows into the bond or swap markets as banks set up carry trades.

"Everything Is A Partial Reversal Of Yesterday" - Stocks, Dollar Rebound Following Trump Scare

European shares decline led by a plunge in Pearson shares, S&P futures were modestly in the green as Asian and EM stocks gained. The dollar rebounded against most major currencies after retreating 1.3% on Tuesday to the lowest in a month following Trump's "strong dollar" comments and halted a seven-day drop against the yen. "Everything is just a partial reversal of the price action yesterday," RBC Capital Markets currency strategist Adam Cole said.