Bank of New York

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Frontrunning: January 9

  • A Bold Dissenter at the Fed, Hoping His Doubts Are Wrong (NYT)
  • China and Japan step up drone race as tension builds over disputed islands (Guardian)
  • How Mario Draghi is reshaping Europe's central bank (Reuters)
  • Merkel Economy Shows Neglect as Sick Man Concern Returns (BBG)
  • US oil imports to fall to 25-year low (FT)
  • China Loan Share at Record Low Shows Financing Risks (BBG)
  • Dimon Says Some JPMorgan Execs ‘Acted Like Children’ on Loss (BBG) - children that reveleased who 'excess reserves' are truly used
  • Fed injects new sell-off risk into Treasuries (FT) - really? So the Fed will stop monetizing the US deficit some time soon?
  • Obama aide presses Republicans to accept more tax revenues (Reuters)
  • Ex-SAC analyst named 20 alleged insider traders (FT)
  • BOJ easing bets help dollar regain ground vs yen (Reuters)
  • Goldman Sachs Said to Be Part of Fed-Led Foreclosure Settlement (BBG)
  • Venezuela postpones inauguration for cancer-stricken Chavez (Reuters)
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Deja Broke: Presenting The Treasury's Options To Continue Pretending The US Is Solvent

The debt limit was formally reached last week, and we expect the Treasury's ability to borrow to be exhausted by around March 1 (if not before) and while CDS are not flashing red, USA is at near 3-month wides. Like the previous debt limit debate in the summer of 2011, the debate seems likely to be messy, with resolution right around the deadline. That said, like the last debate we would expect the Treasury to prioritize payments if necessary, and Goldman does not believe holders of Treasury securities are at risk of missing interest or principal payments. The debt limit is only one of three upcoming fiscal issues, albeit the most important one. Congress also must address the spending cuts under sequestration, scheduled to take place March 1, and the expiration of temporary spending authority on March 27. While these are technically separate issues, it seems likely that they will be combined, perhaps into one package. This remains a 'very' recurring issue, given our government's spending habits and insistence on its solvency, as we laid out almost two years ago in great detail.

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A Record $2 Trillion In Deposits Over Loans - The Fed's Indirect Market Propping Pathway Exposed

Perhaps one of the most startling and telling charts of the New Normal, one which few talk about, is the soaring difference between bank loans - traditionally the source of growth for banks, at least in their Old Normal business model which did not envision all of them becoming glorified, Too Big To Fail hedge funds, ala the Goldman Sachs "Bank Holding Company" model; and deposits - traditionally the source of capital banks use to fund said loans. Historically, and logically, the relationship between the two time series has been virtually one to one. However, ever since the advent of actively managed Central Planning by the Fed, as a result of which Ben Bernanke dumped nearly $2 trillion in excess deposits on banks to facilitate their risk taking even more, the traditional correlation between loans and deposits has broken down. It is time to once again start talking about this chart as for the first time ever the difference between deposits and loans has hit a record $2 trillion! But that's just the beginning - the rabbit hole goes so much deeper...

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The Complete Politicization Of The Fed

There have been very few times where in my 40+ years of capital markets participation that I’ve strongly believed that we have witnessed a significant, material, public but seemingly under-discussed, under appreciated watershed event that will over the next several years, impact capital markets in a profound manner.  The recent announcement by the Fed that they were to pursue the future course of monetary policy with direct regard to a specific, numerical level of unemployment in my mind, represents exactly one of those rare events. While the optics of the recent decision to accept an active target of the unemployment rate might be well meant, socially responsible and politically correct, the dependency upon the single datum construct already of a highly controversial nature may well likely reduce further the credibility of the Federal Reserve’s monetary efforts, thereby leading to slower economic growth, hiring and economic well being as adverse unintended consequences. Indeed, another triumph of form over substance wherein appearances of a literally wondrous intent might soothe the fevered brows of the public but remain entirely within the manipulative province of the data managers.

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Frontrunning: December 19

  • Republicans put squeeze on Obama in "fiscal cliff" talks (Reuters)
  • Inquiry harshly criticizes State Department over Benghazi attack (Reuters)
  • Banks See Biggest Returns Since ’03 as Employees Suffer (BBG)
  • Italy president urges election be held on time (Reuters)
  • Bank of England Says Sterling Hurting Economy (WSJ) - there's an app for that, it's called a Goldman BOE chairman
  • China slowdown hits Indonesian farmers (FT)
  • China dispute hits Japanese exports (FT)
  • Market to get even more monopolized by the HFT king: Getco wins Knight with $2 bln sweetened offer (Reuters)
  • MF Global Cases Focus on 'Letters' (WSJ)
  • UBS fined $1.5 billion in growing Libor scandal (Reuters)
  • Spotlight swings to interdealer brokers (FT)
  • China Widens Access to Capital Markets (WSJ)
  • With Instagram, Facebook Spars With Twitter (WSJ)
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10 Things You Didn't Know About Gold

With gold and silver down this morning - following a mysterious vertical plunge last night (once again) - we thought ConvergEx's Nick Colas' timely discussion of gold was worthwhile. As he notes, Gold is the ultimate personality test for investors.  Some hate it, excoriating its adherents for their lack of faith in human ingenuity – gold has been valuable since before humans could write. And some swear by the yellow metal, in the belief that it is the last vestige of rationality in a world of financial assets manipulated by central banks and opaque trading venues.  What gets lost in the wash is that gold is a commodity and can be analyzed as such. On that basis, here is the 'Top 10' list of real-world fundamentals for gold.

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Head Of The Fed's Trading Desk Speaks On Role Of Fed's "Interactions With Financial Markets"

In what is the first formal speech of Simon "Harry" Potter since taking over the magic ALL-LIFTvander wand from one Brian Sack, and who is best known for launching the Levitatus spell just when the market is about to plunge and end the insolvent S&P500-supported status quo as we know it, as well as hiring such sturdy understudies as Kevin Henry, the former UCLA economist in charge of the S&P discuss the "role of central bank interactions with financial markets." He describes the fed "Desk" of which he is in charge of as follows: "The Markets Group interacts with financial markets in several important capacities... As most of you probably know, in an OMO the central bank purchases or sells securities in the market in order to influence the level of central bank reserves available to the banking system... The Markets Group also provides important payment, custody and investment services for the dollar holdings of foreign central banks and international institutions." In other words: if the SPX plunging, send trade ticket to Citadel to buy tons of SPOOSs, levered ETFs and ES outright. That the Fed manipulates all markets: equities most certainly included, is well-known, and largely priced in by most, especially by the shorts, who have been all but annihilated by the Fed. But where it gets hilarious, is the section titled "Lessons Learned on Market Interactions through Prism of an Economist" and in which he explains why the Efficient Market Hypothesis is applicable to the market. If anyone wanted to know why the US equity, and overall capital markets, are doomed, now that they have a central planning economist in charge of trading, read only that and weep...

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Europe's Depression, Japan's Disaster, And The World's Debt Prison

Together, the market and democracy are what we like to call "the system." The system has driven and enticed bankers and politicians to get the world into trouble. One of the side effects of the crisis is that all ideological shells have been incinerated. Truths about the rationality of markets and the symbiosis of market and democracy have gone up in flames. Is it possible that we are not experiencing a crisis, but rather a transformation of our economic system that feels like an unending crisis, and that waiting for it to end is hopeless? Is it possible that we are waiting for the world to conform to our worldview once again, but that it would be smarter to adjust our worldview to conform to the world? At first glance the world is stuck in a debt crisis; but, in fact, it is in the midst of a massive transformation process, a deep-seated change to our critical and debt-ridden system, which is suited to making us poor and destroying our prosperity, social security and democracy, and in the midst of an upheaval taking place behind the backs of those in charge. A great bet is underway, a poker game with stakes in the trillions, between those who are buying time with central bank money and believe that they can continue as before, and the others, who are afraid of the biggest credit bubble in history and are searching for ways out of capitalism based on borrowed money.

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Guest Post: Start Your Own Financial Media Channel with This Template

You've probably noticed the cookie-cutter format of most financial media "news": a few key "buzz words" (fiscal cliff, Bush tax cuts, etc.) are inserted into conventional contexts, and this is passed off as either "reporting" or "commentary" depending on the number of pundits sourced. Correspondent Frank M. kindly passed along a template that is "officially deny its existence" secret within the mainstream media. With this template, you could launch your own financial media channel, ready to compete with the big boys. Heck, you could hire some cheap overseas labor to make a few Skype calls to "the usual suspects," for-hire academics, hedge fund gurus, etc. and actually attribute the fluff to a real person.

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Exclusive: Bank Of England To The Fed: "No Indication Should, Of Course, Be Given To The Bundesbank..."

"Recently, Johnson Matthey have put 172 “bad delivery” U.S. Assay Office bars into good delivery form for account of the Deutsche Bundesbank. These bars formed part of recent shipments by the Federal Reserve Bank to provide gold in London in repayment of swaps with the Bundesbank. The out-turn of the re-melting showed a loss in fine ounces terms four times greater than the gross weight loss... No indication should, of course, be given to the Bundesbank, or any other central bank holder of U.S. bars, as to the refiner’s views on them."

May 1968

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Frontrunning: November 9

  • Greek Aid Payment Call Won’t Be Made Next Week, EU Official (Bloomberg)
  • Eurozone faces brinkmanship on Greece (FT)
  • Pressure Rises on Fiscal Crisis (WSJ)
  • The JC Penney massacre continues (BBG) - In other news, any minute now Bill Ackman will get that 15x return...
  • SEC left computers vulnerable to cyber attacks (Reuters) cue "back door Trojan" jokes
  • Former Goldman trader accused of fraud (FT)
  • Elizabeth Warren's Inadvertent Best Friends: Wall Street and Republicans (BusinessWeek)
  • Zurbruegg Says Managing SNB Currency Reserves Is Major Challenge (BBG)
  • Obama ally leads push on fiscal cliff (FT)
  • Britain threatens to block banking union (FT)
  • PBOC’s Zhou Says China’s Economy Improving as Data Due (Bloomberg)
  • China slaps duties on steel tube imports (FT)
  • Obama to Make Statement on Economic Growth, Cutting Deficit (Bloomberg)
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