Barack Obama

Al Qaeda confirmed the death Osama bin Laden on Friday in an Internet message that vowed revenge on the United States and its allies, including Pakistan, according to the SITE monitoring service. The note concludes with: "We call upon our Muslim people in Pakistan, on whose land Sheikh Osama was killed, to rise up and revolt to cleanse this shame that has been attached to them by a clique of traitors and thieves ... and in general to cleanse their country from the filth of the Americans who spread corruption in it."

And now for a contrarian view on the fate of crude, and the Obama administration, from Oil Price: "The nation has about eight months of supply of crude oil saved in salt domes, in what is called the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. There is more oil available in the Naval Petroleum Reserve, a set-aside of oil in the ground. Obama needs to say that we are going to start using this oil as soon as it can reach the refineries. He has to go the whole hog – to set the machinery of using our special reserves in motion. That will counter-spook the market and humble the traders." Alas, any article that discusses the price of oil and ignores the possibility of another trillion or so in free liquidity courtesy of the Fed, which will immediately make its way to crude and the entire commodity complex, is woefully inadequate in our view.

In his virtually daily oped, which comes from Time today, Pimco's El-Erian looks at the transitory impact from the bin Laden news, and how even as it has come and gone, nothing has really changed: "One of the most notable outcomes of the dramatic news that Osama bin Laden has been killed is the feeling of unity across the American political and social spectrums. The event has triggered a shared sense of achievement, pride and common purpose. It is a mood that the U.S. has not felt for years as increasingly polarized political debates, on both serious and trivial issues, gradually gutted the operational middle of the country's political system...After initial excitement, this moment of unity has largely been shrugged off by global markets as investors worry about the immediate risk of terrorist backlash and, more generally, the continued sense of malaise in the American economy...Unemployment remains stubbornly high. Youth joblessness is at alarming levels, with too many of the country's teenagers getting close to the point where they go from being unemployed to being unemployable. Various budget constraints have limited the scope for easy solutions, even if these were desirable. The debt and deficit dynamics are bad and deteriorating at both state and federal levels. A major rating agency, Standard & Poor's, has already taken the previously unthinkable step of placing the country's AAA credit rating on negative outlook. And Americans can no longer rely on their central bank for yet another round of imaginative pump priming to buy them time, options and flexibility. In effect, America can't buy itself out of its economic problems, nor can it again kick the can down the road for much longer. Meanwhile, the rest of the world continues to outpace the U.S. in growth, competitiveness and wealth creation."

In my worst nightmares, when the lights are swallowed by the smog of some nefarious gloom and the air itself becomes a stale sarcophagus into which I am entombed, and the grim hands of putrefied fate sink their wretched grip into the thick of my neck and all seems irrevocably lost, I merely recall that soon I will awaken to the horror of a terminal America infested by career criminals and certifiable morons, and suddenly, my off color dreams don’t seem so bad. Ultimately, there is nothing worse to me than a public majority that takes everything they hear from the mouths of political warlocks at face value. Even the fear of death is truly a pittance compared to the threat of being enveloped by a stampeding herd of frightened, stupid, human cattle. Is this melodramatic? Not at all. When a man is aware, and by aware I mean honest with himself, he inevitably suffers the pain of being certain while the rest of the world enjoys the bliss of false assumptions. We live in a culture that inflicts great punishment on those who know, and lavishes enticing but short lived rewards on those who ignore. In such a place as this, meaning disappears, and countries die.

The helicopter carrying Navy SEALs malfunctioned as it approached Osama bin Laden’s compound at about 3:30 p.m. ET Sunday, stalling as it hovered. The pilot set it down gently inside the walls, then couldn’t get it going again. It was a heart-stopping moment for President Barack Obama, who had been monitoring the raid in the White House Situation Room since 1 p.m., surrounded by members of his war cabinet. “Obviously, everyone was thinking about Black Hawk Down and Desert One,” a senior administration official recalled. The SEALs disembarked. “The assault team went ahead and raided the compound, even though they didn’t know if they would have a ride home,” an official said. The special forces put bombs on the crippled chopper and blew it up, then lifted off in a reinforcement craft just before 4:15 p.m., capping an astounding 40 minutes that gave the United States a tectonic victory in the 10-year war on terror touched off by 9/11. The sick chopper turned out to be a tiny wrinkle in an astounding military and intelligence triumph. Bin Laden was shot in the face by the SEALs during a firefight after resisting capture. He was buried at sea less than 12 hours later. He was 54.

Major strains in the U.S.-Pakistani relationship have rested on the fact that the United States is extraordinarily dependent on Pakistan for intelligence on al Qaeda and Taliban targets and that Pakistan in turn relies on that dependency to manage its relationship with the United States. Following the Raymond Davis affair, U.S.-Pakistani relations have been at a particularly low point as the United States has faced increasing urgency in trying to shape an exit strategy from the war in Afghanistan and has encountered significant hurdles in eliciting Pakistani cooperation against high-value targets. Now that the United States has a critical political victory with which to move forward with an exit from the war in Afghanistan, Pakistan now faces the strategic dilemma of how to maintain the long-term support of its major external power patron in Washington.

It is difficult to understand what this means at this moment, but it permits the Obama administration to claim victory, at least partially, over al Qaeda. It also opens the door for the beginning of a withdrawal from Afghanistan, regardless of the practical impact of bin Laden’s death. The mission in Afghanistan was to defeat al Qaeda, and with his death, a plausible claim can be made that the mission is complete. Again speculatively, it will be interesting to see how this affects U.S. strategy there. Equally possible is that this will trigger action by al Qaeda in bin Laden’s name. We do not know how viable al Qaeda is or how deeply compromised it was. It is clear that bin Laden’s cover had been sufficiently penetrated to kill him. If bin Laden’s cover was penetrated, then the question becomes how much of the rest of the organization’s cover was penetrated. It is unlikely, however, that al Qaeda is so compromised that it cannot take further action.

Probably the only piece of economic news that matters today, and possibly all year, no scratch that, since the "End Of The Recession" (NBER ^TM) - according to Reuters: "The April 20-23 Gallup survey of 1,013 U.S. adults found that only 27 percent said the economy is growing. 29 percent said the economy is in a depression and 26 percent said it is in a recession, with another 16 percent saying it is "slowing down," Gallup said." That means that more Americans think the country is in a Depression, let alone recession, than growing. Cue crickets and a Bernanke press conference where he discusses alien abductions and 8 toed mutant Madagascar lemurs.

Today, the world has replaced Messrs.. Cleese, Chapman, Palin, Gilliam, Idle and Jones with a new ‘Flying Circus’. Their names are, for the most part, equally well-known and, sadly, becoming ever-more identified with high comedy as they try to convince the world that the dollar is, actually, in rude health. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you ‘Ben Bernanke’s Flying Circus’ - starring Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geithner, Janet Yellen, Bill Dudley, Charles Plosser, Richard Fisher & featuring Barack Obama.

Now that the Obama approval rating has hit a plateau where it correlates only with the inverse average price of gas instead of the Russell 2000, the AAA brings some more ominous news for the man who last week launched a crusade to wipe out all oil speculators (and witches) from the face of the earth. While last week the average price at the pump was $3.81, it has since surged once again to hit a new multi year nominal high of $3.86, getting dangerously close to the all time high record price of $4.114 recorded on July 17, 2008. Incidentally premium is already above that mark,currently averaging $4.128. The number is also a nearly 10% increase from a month ago when the average price was $3.561. Seven states reported an average gas price above $4 with Hawaii once again leading the pack at a $5 rounding up $4.534. And of course, instead of focusing on the real cause of surging commodity prices, the administration's response: the creation of a "working group" to battle manipulation.

Gold has breached the $1500 level and reached new record nominal highs at $1,505.65/oz. Since yesterday it has gradually risen in all currencies and is approaching record nominal highs in all major currencies. $2,400/oz is the inflation adjusted (CPI) high of 1980 and given the very uncertain macroeconomic climate of today and concerns about the dollar and all major currencies, arguably even more uncertain than the 1970’s, the real high remains a very viable target. It is important to remember that while gold has risen some 6 times in 11 years ($250 to $1500) it rose by 24 times in 9 years in the 1970’s – from 1971 to January 1980 ($35 to $850). This puts the recent reasonably gradual increase in gold prices in perspective and should give gold bears and top callers pause for thought.

Things are certainly speeding up, and it is my conclusion that we are not more than a year away from the next major financial and economic disruption. Alas, predictions are tricky, especially about the future (credit: Yogi Berra), but here's why I am convinced that the next big break is drawing near. In order for the financial system to operate, it needs continual debt expansion and servicing. Both are important. If either is missing, then catastrophe can strike at any time. And by 'catastrophe' I mean big institutions and countries transiting from a state of insolvency into outright bankruptcy.

Gold and silver closed higher yesterday (+0.45% and +0.65%) after S&P, somewhat belatedly, cut its outlook for the US from stable to negative. While the move seemed to surprise some, many market participants have been warning that this was inevitable for some time. Despite somewhat sensationalist reporting, gold did not surge, nor did equities “plummet”. However, both acted as they are expected to with more risky equities selling off internationally and safe haven gold rising marginally in all currencies. Gold was particularly strong in euros due to eurozone contagion fears and rose from €1,035/oz to over €1,050/oz. In dollar terms, soon after rising nearly $20 per ounce, gold gave up the gains with very determined selling seen at the $1,500/oz level. $1,500/oz will likely be reached in the coming days and the question is do we see profit taking and a correction at this level or does gold surprise most market participants again by continuing to rise to the $1,600/oz level.

But by launching his campaign with outrageous demagoguery, Pres. Barack Obama “made it clear” he will avoid fundamentals. He counts on emotional appeals to self interest – private and corporate welfare recipients, elderly who make old age a profession out of human tragedy, all interests vying for favor at the public trough.

The negative outlook on our rating on the U.S. sovereign signals that we believe there is at least a one-in-three likelihood that we could lower our long-term rating on the U.S. within two years. The outlook reflects our view of the increased risk that the political negotiations over when and how to address both the medium- and long-term fiscal challenges will persist until at least after national elections in 2012. Some compromise that achieves agreement on a comprehensive budgetary consolidation program--containing deficit reduction measures in amounts near those recently proposed, and combined with meaningful steps toward implementation by 2013--is our baseline assumption and could lead us to revise the outlook back to stable. Alternatively, the lack of such an agreement or a significant further fiscal deterioration for any reason could lead us to lower the rating.