• Tim Knight from...
    12/21/2014 - 09:37
    The five remaining equity bears on Earth are all saying the same thing: "We'll get 'em in 2015." To which I ask: why? What's going to change?

Barack Obama

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SAC's Real Gross Exposure: Up To $44 Billion





While the conventional way of looking at hedge fund assets has traditionally been to simply add up the assets under management to estimate gross exposure, as so often happens conventional wisdom is wrong. Because what the "traditional" approach simplistically looks at is merely a fund's equity and ignores all leverage through assorted generic and "shadow" conduits such as repo, loans, rehypothecation, "hedging" and others. Luckily, as a result of Dodd-Frank, hedge funds were required to present their full market exposure when netting leverage as per an annual SEC form known as Form PF. It is here that we learn that SAC's market exposure, something very relevant now that the firm is facing an imminent or eventual winddown, is likely orders of magnitude above what the market believes.

 
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Frontrunning: July 25





  • The Department of Justice has opened an initial probe into the metals warehousing industry (WSJ)
  • Obama Says Budget Debate a Battle for Middle Class Future (BBG)
  • Death Toll From Spanish Train Crash Hits 77 (WSJ)
  • ‘Fabulous Fab’ takes to witness stand (FT)
  • Banks Said to Weigh Suspending Dealings With SAC as Charges Loom (BBG) - what about Anthony Scaramucci?
  • How the Muslim Brotherhood lost Egypt (Reuters)
  • German Business Confidence Rises for a Third Month (BBG)
  • Fraternities Lobby for Tax Break Without Hazing Penalties (BBG)
  • China charges Bo Xilai with corruption, paves way for trial (Reuters)
  • Airbus Pushes Higher-Density A380 to Counter Luxury Image (BBG)
 
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Obama Delays Sale Of F-16 Fighter Jets To Egypt, Lockheed Martin Unhappy





Several days after Schrodinger's Egyptian coup, which is both a particle and a wave, but certainly not a coup in the eyes of the Muslim Brotherhood-backing Obama administration, the Pentagon decided that it would go ahead and proceed with a previously planned sale of several F-16 fighter jets to the country, even though it was unclear just who the recipient would be: the revolutionary forces or the previous administration. Moments ago AP reported that this sale has now been "delayed" for reasons unknown.

 
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How Much is the Royal Baby Worth?





As the Duchess of Cambridge goes into labor (finally after the press has been camping out in London in front of St Mary’s Hospital for more than two weeks now) the question that springs to mind is how much will the royal baby bring in to the country in terms of spin-offs.

 
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25 Facts About The Fall Of Detroit That Will Leave You Shaking Your Head





It is so sad to watch one of America's greatest cities die a horrible death.  Once upon a time, the city of Detroit was a teeming metropolis of 1.8 million people and it had the highest per capita income in the United States.  Now it is a rotting, decaying hellhole of about 700,000 people that the rest of the world makes jokes about. Detroit is only just the beginning.  When the next major financial crisis strikes, we are going to see a wave of municipal bankruptcies unlike anything we have ever seen before. All over the nation, our economic infrastructure is being gutted, debt levels are exploding and poverty is spreading.  We are consuming far more wealth than we are producing, and our share of global GDP has been declining dramatically. We have been living way above our means for so long that we think it is "normal", but an extremely painful "adjustment" is coming and most Americans are not going to know how to handle it. So don't laugh at Detroit.  The economic pain that Detroit is experiencing will be coming to your area of the country soon enough.

 
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Most Transparent Administration Ever Discloses The US Will Continue Telephone Surveillance Program





It wasn't exactly like rubbing salt into the wounds of a US population that over the past month has learned it has no electronic communication privacy left, but it was close, when last night the US government's Office of the Director of National Intelligence announced that it was granting the secret FISA court - the same 11 people who decide behind closed doors whose email, phone or browser history is of national interest and thus subject to further "examination" - an extension of its telephone surveillance program. This is one of the two data surveillance efforts by the US (in conjunction with all major private telecom and internet companies) that Snowden leaked about. Why do we know this? Because the Obama administration is suddenly serious about being the most transparent ever: "The ODNI said in a statement it was disclosing the renewal as part of an effort at greater transparency following Snowden's disclosure of the telephone data collection and email surveillance programs." In short: "we will continue spying, but at least we are fully transparent about it."

 
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Everything Is Fine, But...





Everything is going to be just great.  Haven't you heard?  The stock market is at an all-time high, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke says that inflation is incredibly low, and the official unemployment rate has been steadily declining since early in Barack Obama's first term.  Of course we are being facetious, but this is the kind of talk about the economy that you will hear if you tune in to the mainstream media.  They would have us believe that those running things know exactly what they are doing and that very bright days are ahead for America.  And it would be wonderful if that was actually true. Unfortunately, as I made exceedingly clear yesterday, the U.S. economy has already been in continual decline for the past decade.

 
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Frontrunning: July 19





  • Detroit ‘Gut Kick’ Poses New Test for Long Suffering City (BBG)
  • Florida lawmakers urge overhaul of 'Stand Your Ground' law (Reuters)
  • Investors pour huge sums into US equity funds (FT)
  • Snowden Standoff Threatens Obama-Putin Moscow Summit (BBG)
  • China, U.S. companies' great hope, now a drag (Reuters)
  • Morgan Stanley stock traders rebuild burned bridges (Reuters)
  • Huawei spied for China, claims ex-CIA head Michael Hayden (FT)
  • Gorilla Flipping Homes as Rebound Revives Rapid Trades (BBG)
  • BRICS joint action at G20 summit may be wishful thinking (Reuters)
 
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Guest Post: Will Central Asia Replace The Middle East As Prime Oil Source?





One of the prime reasons why the Middle East holds such importance to the West is partiality because it is the main supplier of oil and natural gas to countries in the West. Over the past several decades Western countries had few, if any, options other than to purchase its oil and gas from Middle Eastern oil producing nations despite the headaches that came with it. Headaches, for example, that’s included political unrest, turmoil and strife. But now with the newly found fields of oil and gas in Central Asian countries that are only the beginning of what may lie in these vast oil fields of the steppes and the Caucuses, there may be options.

 
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40 Stats That Show The U.S. Economy's Real Collapse Over The Past Decade





The "coming economic collapse" has already been happening.  You see, the truth is that the economic collapse is not a single event.  It has already started, it is happening right now, and it will accelerate during the years ahead.  The statistics in this article show very clearly that the U.S. economy has fallen dramatically over the past ten years or so. The mainstream media will continue to scoff knowingly, "An economic collapse is never going to happen.  We can consume far more wealth than we produce forever.  We can pile up gigantic mountains of debt forever.  There is no way that the party is over.  In fact, the party is just getting started.  Woo-hoo!"Anyone with half a brain should be able to see what is coming.  Just open your eyes and look at the facts...

 
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"I Refused To Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" - Barack Obama, October 2012





Just nine short months after proclaiming victory on his plan to save Detroit by throwing taxpayer money at the 'problem' of over-levered, over-unioned, and under-demanded auto manufacturers, it seems the ball is back in President Obama's court once again. He "refused to throw in the towel and do nothing. We refused to let Detroit go bankrupt. We bet on American workers and American ingenuity, and three years later, that bet is paying off in a big way." Of course, what the rest of the unsuspecting US citizenry is likely unaware of yet is that once again the municipal workers' pension plans (that face 90% losses) will be bailed-out via the Pension Benefits Guaranty Corporation (PBGC) - A US Government (ponzi) Agency. But of course, that's for the good of the whole nation...

 
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US Prepares For "Kinetic Strikes" Against Syria





There is a very simple and elegant solution to declining defense spending, one which has been used time and again in US history when the US government needed to provide the Fed with more securities (i.e. deficit) to monetize: war. According to RT that, or rather its more politicall correct equivalent "kinetic strikes", is what may be just over the horizon. RT reports that President Barack Obama is considering using military force in Syria, and the Pentagon has prepared various scenarios for possible United States intervention.  Army Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the Obama administration is deliberating whether or not it should use the brute of the US military in Syria during a Thursday morning Senate hearing. Gen. Dempsey said the administration was considering using “kinetic strikes” in Syria and said "issue is under deliberation inside of our agencies of government,” the Associated Press reported from Washington.

 
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Inflation Is Too Low? Are You Kidding Us Bernanke?





Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said this week that inflation in the United States needs to be higher. It almost seems as if Bernanke is trying to purposely hurt the middle class. But what Bernanke will never admit is that the official inflation rate is a total sham.  The way that inflation is calculated has changed more than 20 times since 1978, and each time it has been changed the goal has been to make it appear to be lower than it actually is. If the rate of inflation was still calculated the way that it was back in 1980, it would be about 8 percent right now and everyone would be screaming about the fact that inflation is way too high...

 
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Frontrunning: July 8





  • Greece's Economic Future 'Uncertain,' Creditors Say (WSJ)
  • Secret Court's Redefinition of 'Relevant' Empowered Vast NSA Data-Gathering (WSJ)
  • Thomson Reuters Halts Early Peeks At Consumer Data (WSJ)
  • Larry Summers Circles as Fed Opening Looms (WSJ)
  • S&P to Argue Puffery Defense in First Courtroom Test (BBG)
  • Geithner joins top table of public speakers with lucrative appearances (FT)
  • Losing $317 Billion Makes U.S. Debt Safer for Mizuho to HSBC (BBG)
  • Pilot Error Eyed in San Francisco Plane Crash  (WSJ)
  • Investment group sues U.S. over Fannie, Freddie bailout terms (Reuters)
  • Egypt officials 'order closure of Islamist party HQ' (AFP)
  • Heinz Kerry Transferred to Boston Hospital for Treatment (BBG) - a boating accident?
 
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