Bear Market

Shiller's CAPE – Is There A Better Measure?

Currently, valuation measures are clearly warning the future market returns are going to be substantially lower than they have been over the past eight years. Therefore, if you are expecting the markets to crank out 10% annualized returns over the next 10 years for you to meet your retirement goals, it is likely that you are going to be very disappointed.

Frontrunning: March 23

  • U.S. stock futures slip as concerns mount over delays to Trump tax cuts (Reuters)
  • Global Markets Follow U.S. Stocks Lower (WSJ)
  • Gorsuch, Avoiding Pitfalls, Moves Closer to Approval (WSJ)
  • Trump, Koch brothers at odds over 'Trumpcare' vote (Reuters)
  • Manafort's plan to 'greatly benefit the Putin Government' (AP)

Global Stocks Tumble; Gold, Safe Havens Jump On Doubts Trump Tax Cuts Will Pass

Global stocks tumbled amid growing doubts President Trump will be able to deliver on a promise of tax cuts that has powered stocks markets to record highs pushed shares lower on Wednesday and drove investors to seek safety in government debt, gold and the yen. As DB put it: "Warning! US equities can occasionally go down as well as up a lot."

Credit Suisse "Climbs The Wall Of Worry", Raises S&P Target To 2,500 From 2,350

"Following the reaching of our mid-year S&P 500 target, we raise both our mid-year and year-end S&P targets to 2,400 and 2,500, respectively (from 2,350 and 2,300). We continue to see a clear-cut risk that we get an overshoot to the upside in equities that then reverses later on; more realistically, this reversal is likely to be a very late-2017 or 2018 event." - Credit Suisse

Goldman Downgrades Stocks One Day Before The Fed: "Asymmetry For Equities Is Getting Worse"

"With growth momentum nearing its peak and rates increasing further with a hawkish Fed, the asymmetry for equities is turning increasingly negative. This also means more vulnerability to potential shocks, e.g., from European politics, US policy, commodities and China. Given the asymmetry for equities is getting worse, we downgrade equities to Neutral for 3m."