Bear Market

Trump Vs China: Credit Cycles & Gold

As all experience from the past clearly demonstrates, it is a mistake to believe that the gold price is set solely by dollar interest rates, or its relative strength in other currencies. This being the case, the current weakness of the gold price is simply a reflection of temporary dollar shortages, and nothing more.

Silver Enters Bear Market As Hedgies Flee

After tagging $19 the night of Trump's victory, Silver prices have tumbled 15% (the biggest drop since Summer 2013's taper tantrum). However, as large speculators dumped their longs en masse, this week also marked another milestone as Silver drops 24% from its post-Brexit peak (above $21) and entered a bear market once again.

Welcome To The "Melt-Up"

As Wile E. Coyote always discovers as he careens off the edge of the cliff, “gravity is a bitch.”

"Everything Is Not Awesome" - Don't Be The Turkey

"Things have not suddenly become awesome over the course of the past week... It is very easy to be sucked into the gushingly positive narratives and often unsupported narratives put forth by the financial media. This is particularly true when the move in asset prices can make minutes seem like days and hours seem like months. Excessive market valuations, weak internal measures, and a deteriorating backdrop has historically been a “wicked brew” for investor outcomes."

Brace For A Year Of "Peak Everything, Big Rotations" - Here Is BofA's Guide How To Trade It

1) Peak Liquidity: era of excess liquidity is over; 2) Peak Inequality: more fiscal stimulus to address inequality; 3) Peak Globalization: free movement of trade, labor, capital ending; FX wars starting; 4) Peak Deflation: low point in bond yields now behind us; 5) Trough Volatility: era of “flash volatility” and “pain trades” continues; 6) Peak Passive: active investors to outperform passive; 7) Transforming World: robotics, eCommerce constrain inflation upside

3 Things: Retail Sales, Recurring Ignorance, & Return Reality

There was an awful lot of cheering about the recent retail sales report which showed an uptick of 0.8% which beat the analyst’s estimates of 0.6%. However, if we dig deeper behind the headlines more troubling trends emerge for the consumer which begins to erode the narrative of the "economy is doing great" and “there is no recession" in sight.

Axel Merk On Gold - What Happens Next?

After an initial surge in the hours after Donald Trump’s election, the price of gold has been under pressure. To gauge what’s ahead for the yellow metal, we dissect the forces that may be at play...

Bond Vigilantes Stir As Trump Team Hints At "Infrastructure Bank"

As part of Donald Trump's "fluid" proposals and trial balloons on how to implement his economic policies, adviser Steven Mnuchin told reporters on Wednesday that the Trump transition team is weighing an "infrastructure bank" to make investments in America's aging infrastructure. Mnuchin said that a "very big focus is regulatory changes, looking at the creation of an infrastructure bank to fund infrastructure investments” which to Wall Street was pure poetry as it heard just two words: "more debt.