"The EU as we know it now will not exist, the Euro as we know it will not exist... This is going to be worse than any bear market that you've seen in your lifetime. 2008 was pretty bad because of debt, well the debt all over the world is much, much higher now..."
Brexit is the biggest electorate riposte yet to The Age Of Inequality created by policymakers to save (some) of the world, and as BofAML's Michael Hartnett warns, investors must anticipate a shift to an increasingly populist policy response. The backdrop of Quantitative Failure nonetheless means a renewed bull market in risk assets is impossible unless fiscal policy can quickly arrest the downside in GDP & EPS forecasts.
The Fed provides us with an illustration of how institutionalized cowardice has become worldwide. Rather than own up to the mess it has made, it hides behind a silly and superficial myth - that it can protect the economy with centrally planned interest rates. And now, thanks largely to its own mismanagement, the world is deep in debt, with far too many people all over the world who earn far too little income to support it.
The last two-quarters of economic growth have been less than exciting, to say the least. However, these rather dismal quarters of growth come at a time when oil prices and gasoline prices have plummeted AND amidst one of the warmest winters in 65-plus years. Why is that important? Because falling oil and gas prices and warm weather are effective “tax credits” to consumers as they spend less on gasoline, heating oil and electricity. Combined, these “savings” account for more than $200 billion in additional spending power for the consumer. So, personal consumption expenditures should be rising, right?
"Because this is a bear market in global terms, we need to position ourselves accordingly; that is we shall increase our short derivatives positions today in our own retirement funds while we reduce our long positions, sufficient to get ourselves into a small net short position by mid-day. The world is a much more frightening place than it was only a few days ago."
"We’re following the European model which is to maintain the status quo: Don’t let competition damage or disrupt existing businesses. The politics of fairness create anti competitiveness...What we really need is the politics of hope: Let’s figure out how to make it easier to start a business."
For your daily dose of daily Gartman zen (and humor), we provide the following update, according to which the commodity expert, who just two days after flipping from net short to "marginally net long", once again proclaims it to be a "bear market then"... as he then proceeds to report that he is "net long."
"As for our own positions in our retirement fund, for the year-to-date we are +3.3% and are thus beating the year-to- date returns of both our International Index and of the S&P. We are marginally net long as of last night’s close although we became marginally net less so early in the session as we added a bit to our short derivatives position."
For over a hundred years, it’s been theorised that author L. Frank Baum wrote his 1900 book, “The Wonderful Wizard of Oz”, as a fanciful way to explain the economic situation at the time and that the Yellow Brick Road was a reference to the path created by gold ownership. Whether or not the theory is correct, for many people today, “Follow the Yellow Brick Road” might serve as a mantra for alleviating economic woes.
"The cure for the crisis — for the debt crisis, the financial crisis — has been deemed by the developed world governments to be more debt. There has not been a deleveraging. And after seven and a half years and counting of this mix of policies, at the moment we’re either in a stage of stagnation or rollover, possibly in the early stages of a global recession. So I think it’s a very dangerous time in the financial markets."
“Everyone has a plan until they are punched in the face.” This famous Mike Tyson quote spells out the outlook for investors in the years ahead according to SocGen's Albert Edwards, who warns that investors will not only be punched in the face, they will also get knocked to the floor and kicked repeatedly in the ribs.
Mark Yusko pours cold water on whatever bullishly warm feelings the most optimistic folks may have clung to, warning "it's year 2000 all over again." Here are four major parallels he pointed out that make it clear we are heading for another ugly recession—or are already in one without realizing it.