Bear Market

Howard Marks Sounds The Alarm On ETFs And Passive Investing, Again

"If funds ever flow out of equities and thus ETFs, what has been disproportionately bought will have to be disproportionately sold.  It’s not clear where index funds and ETFs will find buyers for their over-weighted, highly appreciated holdings if they have to sell in a crunch."

Cryptocurrencies Are Crashing Again

The largest cryptocurrencies are under presure again today - Bitcoin, Ethereum down around 10% - as it seems some anxiety remains ahead of the August 1st scaling decision deadline, chatter about Russian Bitcoin viruses, and a new report from BofA has raised more questions than answers about the future of virtual currencies.

Breaking Down The Bull Market Thesis

"Considering that forward estimates are generally overstated by 33% on average, the risk is high of disappointment... The risk for investors is “willful blindness” that builds when complacency reaches extremes. It is worth remembering that the bullish mantra we hear today is much the same as it was in both 1999 and 2007."

John Mauldin Warns "Prepare For Turbulence"

"I’d love to be wrong. Nothing would make me happier than having to eat all these words. But without significant changes, and soon, the economy will drift sideways and down... Any outside shock – and several may be in the offing – could push us into recession."

Adventures In 'Quantitative Tightening'-Lane

"Here, in the spirit of modest contemplation, we offer several hunches, inklings, conjectures, and guesses as to what quantitative tightening might mean. These are not predictions. They’re merely a starting point from which you can extend out your own visions into the future..."

Weekend Reading: Yellen Lets Doves Fly

The problem for the Fed remains the rising risk of a monetary policy error against a backdrop of an over valued, over leveraged and overly bullish financial market. Historically such combinations have tended not to turn out well.