If the world’s economies were really out of intensive care, why would ultra-radical monetary policies like helicopter money be increasingly debated at the highest level of governments? Also, how come 70% of Americans believe the US economy is on the wrong course? And why do almost half of US citizens admit they couldn’t come up with $400 to meet an unexpected need? Yes, I know why ask why? And it is what is, and a bunch of other clichés. But this isn’t normal, it isn’t healthy, and - at least in the opinion of this author—it isn’t going to end well.
“If the weather forecast suggests it might rain, wouldn’t you carry an umbrella?”
"The riskiest things are now stocks and other investments perceived to be safe. One of the most popular categories in US investing are low volatility stock funds. But there is no such thing! If you think that a stock like Johnson & Johnson can’t go down, you’re wrong.. If you are waiting for the confirmation of a recession before taking actions to protect your investment portfolio, it will likely be far too late.”
Coming months will give us a far better clue as to how far the trend is entrenched. All we know right now is that the general investing public, and mainstream media, remain out of the picture.
It's official: as of today the bull market that has been mocked as fake, doomed and history’s most-hated just earned a new title: the second-longest ever. And it only took $14 trillion in central bank liquidity, a global, coordinated central bank "put", central banks purchases of Treasuries, MBS, ETFs and corporate bonds, and nearly 700 rate cuts in the past 7 years to achieve it.
A favorite question during the bear market was: what will it take to bring mining back to life?
"We Are Disappointed" - Goldman Removes Apple From "Conviction Buy" List, Cuts Price Target From $155 To $136Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/27/2016 06:51 -0400
The tide has finally turned on what until recently was every sellside analyst's favorite stock.
The gold market will soon be very different than from what we see today - largely due to the current developments in China. China’s influence will impact not just gold investors but everyone who has a vested interest in the global economy, stock markets, and the US dollar. After all, China will be a dominant force in all, as most analysts project. Here are the five trends in China that will change the gold market forever...
"The physical market dog is starting to wag the paper market tail. Anyone trading paper-centric historical patters is driving forward while looking in the rear view mirror."
Shortly after the close today, Apple will report its much watched earnings which will be closely watched for several reasons. The biggest one is that since Q1 2014 AAPL has contributed 25% of the S&P’s 4.2% growth rate (excluding the EPS benefit of the company's massive buyback program). Furthermore, roughly 40% of the nearly 9% jump in Tech margins since 2009 is attributable to Apple alone. However, that was all in the past: this quarter Apple is actually forecast to subtract 0.7% from the S&P's bottom line.
"The Men Behind The Curtain Are Being Revealed" – CEO Says Real-World Pricing To Return To Gold & Silver MarketsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/25/2016 22:33 -0400
"They are being revealed, most certainly... whether anybody actually takes a fall for it is a whole other discussion... It’s good someone is being held accountable in some form or fashion and at least we understand what we’re dealing with... If you start getting some of the manipulation to come out of the market for fear that people are going to get called out on it, then you can allow the fundamentals to play out... and the real world pricing is being seen in the precious metals space..."
Outside of an exogenous geopolitical event - which given the way the world is tilting is becoming an increasingly likely occurrence - BofAML believes a bear market case is strongly supported by the probability of an economic shock most likely be tied to credit where signs of stress are building the most.
Today, looking at the technical evidence that, so far, suggests that there is zero evidence to suggest that we are in a bull market. In fact it appears there is risk building that this is a completely broken market in its final inning. Yes we’ve had a massive rally off of the February lows, but the technical evidence is mounting that this may still be a bear market rally. Why? Because key charts remain decisively bearish and any sizable pullback could literally kill any notion of a bull market...
Does it smell the same as 2015’s A share market? But wait, the leverage in the commodities market (easily 10x) is much higher than that in the A share market (normally 2-4x). If the investors still remember the lesson in 2015, they should pay extra attention now. When the music stops, the collapse of price can be faster and steeper than the pace of going up. 2009 already showed us a real example in the Rebar market.
The “bullish case” is currently built primarily on “hope.” Hope the economy will improve in the second half of the year; Hope that earnings will improve in the second half of the year; Hope that oil prices will trade higher even as supply remains elevated; Hope the Fed will not raise interest rates this year; Hope that global Central Banks will “keep on keepin’ on.” Hope that the US Dollar doesn’t rise; Hope that interest rates remain low; Hope that high-yield credit markets remain stable.