Bear Market

Today we get some more on the ground perspective on the abysmal (second) reign of Abe, where the stock market may be approaching bear market territory (after everyone was convinced the Nikkei was set to soar in 2014), but it is really the economy which is about to get it, most likely resulting in Abe's second premature evacuation stage left (with the now traditional Imodium scapegoat) well before the work of Abenomics is completed, in the process sending the USDJPY once again back into double digit territory. The bottom line: “I don’t have an optimistic view about consumption in Japan,” Yanai told reporters yesterday in Tokyo. He said he had yet to see an effect on sales from the tax increase. He will quite soon, and he won't be happy with what he sees.

The market is facing an increasingly negative environment. Historically speaking April and May have not been big months for crises, but the number of negatives the market is facing today is rather unique.

The Nikkei 225 is down over 700 points from the post-FOMC minutes exuberance with major volume hitting the open in Japan. Japanese stocks are now down 15% from their high and trading at six-month lows (and the cheapest to the Dow in 15 months). USDJPY is tumbling further (though the standard opening knee-jerk stop-run is being attempted). Within the broader Topix index, Japanese bank stocks have just hit a bear market (down over 20% from their highs) at 10-months. When asked how he felt about this, we suspect Abe said "depends."

Someone was in a hurry - paging Waddell & Reed? The volume surge occurred right as VIX broke above 16 and the Biotech Index (-6.25% today) has hit bear market territory. The Nasdaq is getting slayed- down over 3% and all but Trannies are red YTD.

Yesterday's "best day in a year" was the ultimate Fed cat bounce as Nadaq Biotech stocks are collapsing today - approaching the crucial 20% bear market drop. With a loss of over 5.5%, this is the biggest drop since August 2011 and has the index very close to the critical 200-day moving-average support. The Biotechs are now down 2% year-to-date at new 4-month lows.

We all know what will eventually unfold: another collapse, this one even worse than that of 2008. Until then, the fraud and fiction will continue. Everyone with a vested interest in stocks moving up will do everything they can to perpetuate this.

Market tops usually feature something called rotation. This occurs when investors move out of former top performing companies or market leaders, into safer investments.

UPDATE: V-shaped recovery in stocks as 103 USDJPY marks line in the sand...

BTFD failed and momentum has broken. Growth stocks and Biotech dreams are lying shattered in a pool of margin calls once again this morning. Nasdaq being dragged by another more-than-1% drop in Biotechs (now negative year-to-date) and nearing the 20% high-to-low drop of a bear market. Bonds are bid as JPY carry unwinds drag broad US equity markets lower... The USD is weaker (led by EUR strength) and precious metals are down modestly (gold at $1300)

The whole situation is very reminiscent of the computer trading, which led to the 1987 Crash.

The reasons to hold gold (and silver), and we mean physical bullion, are pretty straightforward. So let’s begin with the primary ones:

1. To protect against monetary recklessness
2. As insulation against fiscal foolishness
3. As insurance against the possibility of a major calamity in the banking/financial system
4. For the embedded 'option value' that will pay out handsomely if gold is re-monetized

The punch line is this: Gold (and silver) is not in bubble territory, and its largest gains remain yet to be realized; especially if current monetary, fiscal, and fundamental supply-and-demand trends remain in play.

UPDATE: Nasdaq negative year-to-date; Biotechs 3-month lows. AMZN, FB, TWTR, NFLX, P all in Bear market territory

Shortly after 946amET, the stock of The Nasdaq OMX Group suddenly dropped in a mini-flash-crash from from 35.98 to 35.00 in just over 2 seconds on approximately 100,000 shares. As Nanex notes, this is what high-frequency-trading liquidity looks like. But now, an hour or so later, the Nasdaq index and most especialy its Biotech and high-growth names are being crushed. Biotechs are near 3-month lows, Momos are down 16 to 18% since FOMC, and Nasdaq is about to go negative for the year.

Contrary to most consensus views (including Citi's FX technical group) EURUSD has failed to move lower in 2014. Why?

French auctioneers are disappointed (but the elites may not be). Having sold for 193,000 Euros in 2011 (but unable to be shipped to its Russian buyer due to export license issues) this 'slightly used' Second Empire guillotine failed to reach its minimum bid of 40,000 Euros in an auction today in Nantes, France. Perhaps one glance at the glaring divergence in the following chart... will raise the demand for guillotines once again.

Following the default of 2 more corporations last night, Hang Seng's index of China Enterprises plunged to 8-month lows and officially entered bear market territory. Overnight angst in the Chinese currency markets (which saw the Yuan trade back to 1-year lows) has sparked broad commodity weakness (as CCFD unwinds en masse) with copper giving back most of yesterday's major short squeeze gains back. Chinese corporate bond prices also tumbled to one-month lows.

When we started discussing the upcoming onslaught of corporate defaults in "Minsky Moment" China, now that the bankruptcy seal has been broken, we warned that the worst is about to come. Well, it's coming. Overnight, Hong Kong's The Standard reported that in addition to the solar, coal and real-estate developer companies that are on everyone's radar as potential future bankruptcy candidates, one can also add steel makers to the list, with its report that Highsee Group, the largest private steel makers in Shanxi province has defaulted on CNY3 billion of debt, unable to repay its bonds on time.