Bear Market

S&P Nears All Time High, Global Stocks Rally As Dovish Yellen Unleashes Animal Spirits

Stock whisperer Yellen said all the right things yesterday, when she sounded more optimistic than pessimistic on the economy but while the economy is "strong" it is most likely not strong enough to weather a rate hike in the immediate future. As a result, the S&P 500 climbed toward a record on Monday (and continued rising overnight) after Yellen said she expects to raise interest rates only gradually and held off from specifying any timeframe, a shift from her May 27 stance that a move was probable “in the coming months.” This was interpreted that both a June and July rate hike are now off the table, with September odds rising modestly.

The Global Bear Market In Freedom

Americans will be celebrating Memorial Day this weekend, to honor those who fought and died for the values they have traditionally cherished the most as a nation: life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. The world has changed dramatically in recent decades. The geopolitical situation is much more complex, with rising powers challenging America's supremacy. The intractable war on terror seems interminable. Old foes appear to spring back to life even more powerful than before. And things at home look dicey in terms of politics and economics. As we reflect upon the ultimate sacrifice that others have made‎, it is an opportune moment to consider a very important question: is the US winning the fight for freedom?

"The Stock Market Won't Crash, Yet" - The Barron's Cover Strikes Again

When it comes to Wall Street cover page superstitions, nothing beats the Barron's front page article jinx: just when you think something will never happen, Barron's confirms it on the cover, virtually assuring that it does. In which case, be afraid bulls, be very afraid, because if past is prologue Barron's just green-lit the next crash.

Death By A Theta Cuts

Implied volatility should remain structurally elevated into and through an eventual recession (and likely bear market) before subsiding once the next sustained recovery has begun. That is precisely why we have struggled with the idea that the high-volatility regime intact since last August may truncate at less than a year. If our reasoning is correct and volatility remains structurally elevated, it follows that the recent three-month cyclical trough, as the longest such period on record, is statistically unlikely to last much longer.

Detroit, Fresh Out Of Bankruptcy, Discovers $195M Pension Shortfall

On December 10, 2014 the city of Detroit exited bankruptcy. It was the largest municipal bankruptcy in US history. The bondholders were totally screwed in favor of the pensioners (not that I generally like bondholders). Regardless, everything was supposed to be fixed. It wasn’t.

Are Investors Idiots?

Statistically, the likelihood of a crash coming on any given day is small. But that is a little like telling a turkey not to worry because the likelihood of Thanksgiving is only 1 out of 365.

Warning Signs Everywhere

You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready, you won’t do well in the markets.”

SEC - Do Your Job!!

It looks like the SEC is finally ready to put a stop to accounting shenanigans.

Palisade Research's picture

What goes up, must come down... is a correction in the cards for gold? 

Looking at previous gold bull markets, a pullback normally occurs four months into a full fledged rally.

Are we seeing the beginnings of one right now? The chart below provides compelling evidence for an imminent correction, but an even more compelling reason to hold on and weather the storm.

Chicago Pension Liabilities Jump 168%, Understated By $11.5 Billion

New accounting rules show Chicago has understated its pension liabilities by $11.5 billion. At the end of 2015 the stated liability was $7.1 billion. Today it’s $18.6 billion. That’s a jump in net liabilities of 168%. Mayor Rahm Emanuel has hopes pinned on union concessions and help from the state legislature. Neither is likely. Let’s stop pretending there is another solution, because there isn’t.

Two Things Are Bothering A Bearish Dennis Gartman

"We are net short of equities here in our account, although we are not materially so. We’ve only a few positions on: we are long of gold in EUR and Yen terms via GEUR and GYEN; we are long of a small bullish derivative of gold in US dollar terms and we are “short” of the market via derivatives positions. There are only two things that bother us..."