Bear Market

Everyone Is Still Selling: Biggest Monthly Outflow From Global Stocks Since US Downgrade

One recurring question over the past few weeks has been "who is buying" stocks in a world in which not only the smart money, but everyone else too is selling. The latest Lipper data will not provide the answer because as BofA reports, in the latest week there was another $7.4bn in outflows (the 5th straight week) driven by $4.8bn in mutual fund outflows and $2.7bn ETF outflows, leading to a $44bn equity exodus past 5 weeks, which as Michael Hartnett points out is the "largest redemption period since Aug’11", or when the US downgrade sent US stocks into a bear market tailspin.

Why Hedge Funds Have Rarely Been More Bearish: Highlights From The SALT Conference

Following last week's Sohn Conference, where the overarching theme was one of prevailing bearishness topped by Stanley Druckenmiller's near-apocalyptic forecast that only gold will be left standing after all confidence evaporates in the "magic people" known as central bankers,  yesterday some 1,800 hedge fund industry executives gathered in Las Vegas at the SkyBridge Alternatives Conference or SALT, where the prevalent concern about the future of the world continued, driven primarily by worries about China.

Peter Boockvar Warns "If Central Bankers Get Their Way, The Global Bond Market Will Blow Up"

"My fear is that central banks are now taking this too far through negative interest rates in particular and that they’re going to literally destroy their own banking systems. If they’re actually successful in generating higher inflation, then they’re going to destroy their own bond markets... our government officials, and I will include the Federal Reserve in that, have failed the American people."

Saving Is Dumb... Say The Central Bankers

Central bankers have been waging a war against savers. What those central bankers want you to do is either (1) spend money to increase demand, or (2) buy stocks to increase capital. Well, it sure looks like American consumers are not doing the former...

"Bored" Chinese Workers Created "Uncontrollable Bubble" In Commodity Futures

With the collapse of China's smoke-and-mirrors commodity bubble comes the post-mortem as the horde of Chinese gamblers flood from one government-appointed market to another as the American dream of get-rich-quick schemes appears to have been adopted by the burgeoning middle classes now disillusioned with real work. As Bloomberg reports so shockingly, from the Dutch tulip craze of 1637 to America’s dot-com bubble at the turn of the century, history is littered with speculative frenzies that ended badly for investors; but rarely has a mania escalated so rapidly, and spurred such fevered trading, as the great China commodities boom of 2016..."you have far too much credit, money sloshing about, money looking for higher returns."

Iron Ore, Rebar Crash Into Bear Market, Baltic Dry Dead-Cat-Bounce Dies

Real demand for steel in China dropped at least 7% in April from the year before, according to Citigroup’s Tracy Liao estimates, so it should not be a total surprise that the frenzied speculative buying in Iron Ore, Rebar, and various other industrial metals in China has crashed back to reality as volumes plunge, dragging The Baltic Dry Freight Index with it as yet another government-manipulated 'signal' collapses into a miasma of malinvestment and unintended consequences.

Albert Edwards: "Let Me Tell You How This All Ends"

The dollar's recent rapid slide has been accompanied by a constant backdrop of dovish cooing from the Fed. Until this week, SocGen's Albert Edwards notes that both equity and commodity markets had embraced the weak dollar as the elixir to solve all their ills. That relief, however, has now proved fleeting as fear of weak economic activity has reasserted its influence on investors. The weak dollar, Edwards warns, should be seen as merely a shuffling of deckchairs on the Titanic before the global economy sinks below the icy waves.

"If..."

If the world’s economies were really out of intensive care, why would ultra-radical monetary policies like helicopter money be increasingly debated at the highest level of governments? Also, how come 70% of Americans believe the US economy is on the wrong course? And why do almost half of US citizens admit they couldn’t come up with $400 to meet an unexpected need? Yes, I know why ask why? And it is what is, and a bunch of other clichés. But this isn’t normal, it isn’t healthy, and - at least in the opinion of this author—it isn’t going to end well.

Still Looks Like A Trap

“If the weather forecast suggests it might rain, wouldn’t you carry an umbrella?

Earnings "Beats" & The Warning In Today's GDP Data

"The riskiest things are now stocks and other investments perceived to be safe. One of the most popular categories in US investing are low volatility stock funds. But there is no such thing! If you think that a stock like Johnson & Johnson can’t go down, you’re wrong.. If you are waiting for the confirmation of a recession before taking actions to protect your investment portfolio, it will likely be far too late.”

Key Gold Index Doubles In 2016 (But Nobody Noticed)

Coming months will give us a far better clue as to how far the trend is entrenched. All we know right now is that the general investing public, and mainstream media, remain out of the picture.

2.607 Days Later, The "Most Hated Bull Market Ever" Is Now The Second Longest In History

It's official: as of today the bull market that has been mocked as fake, doomed and history’s most-hated just earned a new title: the second-longest ever. And it only took $14 trillion in central bank liquidity, a global, coordinated central bank "put", central banks purchases of Treasuries, MBS, ETFs and corporate bonds,  and nearly 700 rate cuts in the past 7 years to achieve it.