• GoldCore
    01/24/2015 - 05:15
    So who pays? Someone has to, you can not just create money out of thin air. The answer is “we do, you and I”, in the form of a devalued: currency, diminished savings and devaluing pensions. You are...
  • Marc To Market
    01/24/2015 - 10:27
    I have told you the US dollar was going up for months.  Some mocked me.  Others insulted me.  So what?  I tell you the dollar's bull market remains intact.  

Beige Book

Tyler Durden's picture

Initial Jobless Claims Surge Above 300k, Highest Since June 2014





Tumbling retail sales and now surging jobless claims... perhaps the "low oil is awesome" narrative is not true after all. Initial Jobless claims surged to 316k (smashing expectations of 290k) and has not been higher since June 2014.  The BLS reports no unusual activity - so economists can't hust shrug this one off. Details on state-by-state job losses are lagged a week so we will not know if this is Shale Oil region-related but yesterday's Beige Book and day after day of announced job cuts by the energy sector suggest it is.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Fed's Beige Book Shows Widespread Concerns Over Oil's Impact





The standard modest or moderate growth comments of the Fed's typically boring Beige Book were awkwardly interspersed with a narrative-interrupting 45 mentions of concerns about oil's price plunge impact...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 14





  • U.S. Index Futures Decline on Commodities Slump, Growth Concerns (BBG)
  • Al Qaeda claims French attack, derides Paris rally (Reuters)
  • Charlie Hebdo With Muhammad Cover on Sale With Heavy Security Precautions (BBG)
  • How an Obscure Tax Loophole Brought Down Obama's Treasury Nominee  (BBG)
  • ECB’s bond plan is legal ‘in principle’ (FT)
  • Charlie Hebdo fallout: Specter of fascist past haunts European nationalism (Reuters)
  • DRW to acquire smaller rival Chopper Trading (FT)
  • Oil fall could lead to capex collapse: DoubleLine's Gundlach (Reuters)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Market Wrap: Copper Plummets; Euro Plunges To 9 Year Low On Euro-Court's OMT Ruling, Futures Down





'After two days of sharp intraday and vicious reversals, the BTFD algos are suspiciously missing overnight, when as reported earlier, a bout of margin calls and stop loss selling meant not crude but copper would crash in today's episode of "guess the crashing commodity", on what Goldman dubbed a Chinese demand collapse which for those confused is different than an OPEC supply glut, and is also the reason why the entire commodity complex is trading at a decade plus low. As a result copper plunged to a five and a half year low, in the process halting the market due to the severity of the plunge. But the big event overnight was the farcical announcement by the European top court, which as everyone expected, rejected the German rejection of the OMT as illegal, stating it was not only legal (with certain conditions) but greenlighting the way for the ECB's QE in one week, a move which sent the EURUSD crashing to a fresh 9 year low!

 
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Stocks Bounce On Daily ECB QE Rumor Regurgitation, Oil Plunges On Goldman Downgrade





If you, like the BIS, are sick and tired of central bankers, and in this case the ECB's endless jawboning and now daily QE threats, determining the level of stocks, well then today is a good day as any to take your blood pressure medication. Because first it was ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco who told German newspaper Welt am Sonntag that the risk of deflation in the euro zone should not be underestimated and urged the bank to buy government debt, and then, yet another regurgitated story, came from CNBC whose "sources" reported that the ECB QE would be based on contributions from national central banks and paid in capital. And while otherwise the cross-correlation trades would have at least pushed the crude complex modestly higher, today it was Goldman's energy analyst Jeffrey Currie finally throwing up all over oil, with a report in which he said that "because shale can rebound quickly once capital investments return, we now believe WTI needs to trade near $40/bbl for most of 1H15 to keep capital sidelined."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Chart That Terrifies The Fed





"... investors are so certain about inflation that there is no insurance value in breakeven contracts. If the liquidity premium hasn’t changed, then current breakevens are consistent with 1.8% expected PCE inflation. In other words, either the market believes that even five years from now, the Fed will not achieve its target or the liquidity premia has jumped to 30bp."

 
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Futures Soar On Swiss NIRP Stunner, "Considerably Patient" Fed





After drifting unchanged for much of the overnight session, US futures exploded higher shortly after the previously noted SNB's NIRP announcement, which took place at 2 am eastern, which made it explicit that yet another banks will herd the bouncing dead cats right into new all time stock market highs, and following the European open, were carried even higher as the global "risk-on" momentum ignition algos woke up, spiking all recently depressed assets higher, including energy as Brent rose almost 3% despite Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali al-Naimi once again saying "it is difficult if not impossible" for OPEC and his kingdom to reduce output.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Beige Book: "Lower Oil Prices A Concern For The Oil Industry"





While superficially the November Beige Book, which is chronically bad at spotting actual trends as was the case in the 2005-2007 period when it came to the housing bubble and the BB had absolutely no warnings about what only in retrospect would be a glaringly obvious bubble, was among the more optimistic ones seen in recent months (there were only 13 instances of "weather" in the document), here is what the Fed's assessment had to say about the only thing that matters currently for the US economy (in addition to the soaring US Dollar of course): oil. One example: 'Energy and mining activity was higher on net, though lower oil prices were a concern for the oil industry in the Atlanta and Dallas Districts."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Today's Market-Boosting Disappointing Economic News Brought To Your Courtesy Of Euroarea's Service PMIs





Those wondering why European stocks are higher but off earlier highs, the answer is simple: the latest Service ISM was bad but it wasn't a complete disaster. And while RanSquawk notes that "the particularly disappointing slew of Eurozone Service PMI’s from France and Spain capped any potential upside seen across the European indices" stocks are clearly green on hopes Europe's ongoing economic devastation accelerates enough for the ECB to finally start buying Stoxx 600 and various other penny stocks. This is what happened, in Goldman's words: the November Euro area final composite PMI came in at 51.1, 0.3pt below the flash (and Consensus) estimate. Relative to October, the composite PMI fell by 0.9pt. The weaker final composite PMI was driven by flash/final downward revisions to the German manufacturing PMI and the French services PMI. Today’s data also showed some improvement in the Italian services PMI, and a deterioration in its Spanish counterpart.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Key Events In The Coming Week





Following last week's holiday-shortened week, which was supposed to be quiet and peaceful and was anything but thanks to OPEC's shocking announcement and a historic plunge in crude prices, we have yet another busy week of macroeconomic reports to look forward to.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Macro Mauling Continues: Germany Contracts, Japan Downgraded, Copper Tumbles, WTI Lowest Since 2009, Gold Up





Another day full of global macroeconomic disappointments is certain to send the S&P500 to all time-higherest records as 100,000 or so E-mini contracts exchange hands between central banks and Citadel's algos.

 
Marc To Market's picture

Dollar Positive Investment Themes Set to Strengthen





Unvarnished analysis as if people were not stupid, easily manipulated, or subject to false consciousness.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

What Americans Are Thinking (And Asking) About The Fed





When will the Fed... Raise rates? Stop buying bonds? End quantitative easing? Common questions, those, from Wall Street to Main Street. And – apparently – the online world as well, because they also reflect (literally) what Google autofills when individuals pose inquiries about future monetary policy action in the famously simple Google search box.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Everything Breaks Again: Futures Tumble; Peripheral Yields Soar, Greek Bonds Crater





Yesterday afternoon's "recovery" has come and gone, because just like that, in a matter of minutes, stuff just broke once again courtsy of a USDJPY which has been a one way liquidation street since hitting 106.30 just before Europe open to 105.6 as of this writing: U.S. 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD DROPS 15 BASIS POINTS TO 1.99%; S&P FUTURES PLUNGE 23PTS, OR 1.2%, AS EU STOCKS DROP 2.54%.

Only this time Europe is once again broken with periphery yields exploding, after Spain earlier failed to sell the maximum target of €3.5 billion in bonds, instead unloading only €3.2 billion, and leading to this: PORTUGAL 10-YR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD CLIMBS 30 BPS TO 3.58%; IRISH 10-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DECLINE; YIELD RISES 20 BPS TO 1.90%; SPANISH 10-YEAR BONDS EXTEND DROP; YIELD JUMPS 29 BPS TO 2.40%.

And the punchline, as usual, is Greece, whose 10 Year is now wider by over 1% on the session(!), to just about 9%.

 
GoldCore's picture

“Secret Scheme To Manipulate The Price Of Silver” - Lawsuits Against Banks Proceed





Banks abused their position of controlling the daily silver fix to reap illegitimate profit from trading, hurting other investors in the silver market who use the benchmark in billions of dollars of transactions, according to the suit. 

 
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