Beige Book

Fed's Beige Book Warns Of Declining Auto Sales, Sees Rising Benefit Costs Limiting Wages

While the Fed's traditionally drab Beige Book is routinely ignored by the market, this time there were several notable highlights in the just released July edition, not least of all the apparent downgrade in the overall economic activity which for the first time described the pace of growth as "slight to moderate" versus its staple "modest to moderate" classification. 

All Eyes On Yellen As Dollar Slumps On Trump Revelations, Stocks Rebound

The dollar was broadly weaker after dovish comments from Fed Governor Lael Brainard amid reverberations from reports of Donald Trump Jr.’s contact with a Russian lawyer; European equities rebounded with oil while S&P futures were 0.2% higher at 2,428 as traders eagerly await Janet Yellen’s Congressional testimony for further clues on the trajectory of monetary policy while the Bank of Canada is expected to hike rates later.

Fed Or Fed? Why One Trader Is Watching Wimbledon Closer Than The Market

Markets have had a quiet start to the week as we await Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress and then the Fed’s Beige book. While both events have potential to cause some short-term volatility, there’s some historical evidence that investors might be better off watching the other Fed’s performance at Wimbledon.

Global Stocks Rise Amid Strong Economic Data; Yen Drops To 2 Month Low As Oil Resumes Slide

In a quiet overnight session, S&P 500 futures are fractionally in the green (2,426, +0.2%) with European and Asian stocks as oil drops second day after an initial ramp higher amid speculation that LIbya and Nigeria may be asked to cap their production. Nasdaq 100 Index are again higher, following the biggest daily advance in more than a week, up 0.4% as of 6:20 a.m. in New York.

May Payrolls Preview: The Tiebreaker

After a poor March jobs report, followed by an April scorcher, the May payrolls report due at 8:30am on Friday will be the tiebreaker, not only for the current state of the economy where both soft and hard data have been deteriorating in recent weeks, but perhaps also for the June rate hike decision, which as the Fed noted in its May FOMC minutes, may not take place without "evidence" that the recent "transitory weakness" in the economy is over.

Global Stocks Rise As Oil Rebounds; Yuan Soars

S&P futures are little changed this morning, while Asian shares rise and European stocks (+0.5%) are poised to snap a five-day losing streak amid a broad-based rally. The pound declined as better-than-expected manufacturing data failed to offset political risk before the impending election, while crude oil gained.

Beige Book Finds Raising Wages Results In More Qualified, Motivated Workers

"Attracting qualified applicants for low-skilled manufacturing jobs is difficult, and many newly hired workers prove to be unreliable... Several contacts observed that applicants for some low-skilled positions did not meet the minimum job requirements or were unable to pass pre-employment screenings such as drug tests."

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: US Payrolls; Eurozone Inflation And Fed Speakers

Focus in this holiday-shortened week will turn to US data, especially NFP, Fed speakers and Eurozone inflation. UK PMIs will also draw attention as elections approach. We also get GDP data from Canada, Sweden and Switzerland. On Monday, Euro FX and bond markets will be on Mario Draghi alert on Monday as the ECB president speaks to the European parliament.

Seven Years Of College Down The Drain

How many of your coworkers have a college degree?  If the answer is “Most” or “all”, you might assume that most American adults have one.  And that would be...  Wrong.