Belgium
Shuffle Rewind 19-23 Nov " The Only Way Is Up " (Yazz, 1988)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/24/2012 08:38 -0500If we lacked Direction last week, this week was a strong case for “The Only Way is Up!” with Risk assets soaring. Quite a cleansing process over the last weeks: weak longs stopped out, weak shorts stopped out. Volatility crushed nevertheless.
"The Only Way Is Up" (Bunds 1,44% +12; Spain 5,60% -26; Stoxx 2552 +4,8%; EUR 1,296 +260)
23 Nov 2012 – “ Fly Like an Eagle ” (Steve Miller Band, 1976)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/23/2012 12:03 -0500Yet another light ROn close of the day, crowning a ROn of a week. Worries put aside on Greece (and Cyprus) and the Periphery (and the Fiscal Cliff). Sentiment data all for the better. Last week’s nightmare obviously obliterated. It’s not like things have really changed, though.
Fly like an Eagle – for those “Free Bird” of yesterday that made it through the night…
"Fly Like An Eagle" (Bunds 1,44% +1; Spain 5,6% -4; Stoxx 2552 +0,7%; EUR 1,296 +80)
22 Nov 2012 – “ Free Bird ” (Lynyrd Skynyrd, 1974)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/22/2012 12:04 -0500US closing fine, Asia closing fine. PMIs a tick better than expected. Fine. Spanish auction fine. Greek bonds fine. All fine. Slight Risk On. Fine. Fine, fine, fine… All is good. Free that Bird – or Eat it!
"Free Bird" (Bunds 1,43% +0; Spain 5,64% -6; Stoxx 2534 +0,6%; EUR 1,288 +60)
21 Nov 2012 – “ Rise To The Occasion” (Climie Fisher, 1987)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/21/2012 11:56 -0500Greece? Sorry, what’s with Greece? French downgrade. Unexpected, but then again not that much. So what? Fiscal Cliff? As no one speaks about it, it can be ignored. Risk? If it doesn’t fall, it has to rise.
"Rise To The Occasion" (Bunds 1,43% +2; Spain 5,7% -9; Stoxx 2518 +0,4%; EUR 1,282 +10)
Tell Me Again... Which Of These Nations Is Communist?
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/20/2012 15:54 -0500
Tax policy really tells you a lot about a government... what politicians’ values and priorities are. People can SAY anything, but in a way, tax policy is putting their money where their mouths are. For example, politicians like to talk about technology, efficiency and transparency. US tax code is so massive, in fact, that the Government Printing Office charges $1,028 just to print a copy of it! And for most taxpayers, it’s still virtually impossible to file online. Then there are the rates themselves. Again, the message they’re sending is quite clear– citizens, even in death, are dairy cows for the government to milk. Ironically, the new government of the People’s Republic of China has decided the REDUCE their tax on dividends. Years ago it was 20%, then dropped to 10% in 2005. Effective January 1st, though, the dividend tax rate in China will drop to a mere 5%.
20 Nov 2012 – “A Tout Le Monde (Set Me Free) ” (Megadeth, 1995)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/20/2012 11:57 -0500Uh… Very uncomfortable French downgrade. Not surprising per se, but uncomfortable. Ask the EFSF… Brings back the question of “Who’s Next”? European Risk (Equities & Credit), however, oblivious and taking rising yields as a sure sign for Risk On. I’d see the risk of France (and everyone else) starting to count contingent costs.
"A Tout Le Monde" (Bunds 1,41% +6; Spain 5,79% -9; Stoxx 2509 +0,6%; EUR 1,281 unch)
Citi Has First Reaction To Moody's Downgrade: Not Surprising But More EURUSD Downside
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2012 17:54 -0500"With EUR now at 1.2773 versus 1.2816 just before the announcement there is probably more downside till the kneejerk reaction is out of the way. But on the whole it seems likely that this more reflects an already existing reality than new information for the market so the downside should be relatively limited, and nothing that could not be cured by an aggressive Fed indication on balance sheet expansion."
19 Nov 2012 – “ Rip And Tear” (L.A. Guns, 1989)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/19/2012 12:02 -0500European equities ripping and squeezed after Friday’s dismal close. Credit the same and, as more often than not lately, overdoing the equity move. EGBs rather muted with the Core pretty much where it stood throughout last week – with exception of Friday afternoon. Spain back on the radar. Europe still under US influence. Huge relief. From what and why exactly still needs to be seen. In the meantime: Rip & Tear!
"Rip And Tear" (Bunds 1,35% +3; Spain 5,88% +2; Stoxx 2495 +2,7%; EUR 1,281 +110)
Shuffle Rewind 12-16 Nov " No Direction " (Simply Red, 1985)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/17/2012 09:00 -0500While the prior week was marked by some kind of awakening, this week was more about finding a direction. Eventually mostly downwards, but always in jumps, marked by tentative rebounds. Europe mostly lost, so unused not to be the focal point anymore, waiting for US input. If it wasn’t for the Fiscal Cliff, and in absence of further news out of the Periphery, we seem to have
"No Direction" (Bunds 1,32% -2; Spain 5,86% +5; Stoxx 2429% -2,1%; EUR 1,27 -10)
Guest Post: Europe In the Grip of Anti-Austerity Protests
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/16/2012 14:44 -0500
As if we needed more proof that the course implemented by the eurocracy becomes increasingly untenable politically, millions decided to strike in several European countries this week. The demonstrations have, as they are wont to do these days, turned violent in a number places. The protests were most intense in Spain, where unemployment is at over 25% and desperation over the collapse of the bubble economy is growing by the day. This is what happens when after decades of socialism, the money to pay for the freebies finally runs out. What the protesters don't seem to get: the status quo ante cannot be recreated by decree. There is no magic wand for anyone to wave. The protesters have every right to be enraged, but they are raging against something that cannot be changed at the flick of a switch – the wealth is gone.
16 Nov 2012 – “That's the Way (I Like It) ” (KC and the Sunshine Band, 1975)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/16/2012 12:06 -0500Europe mostly boring. Several inconclusive downside tests in European equities. Static bonds, unwilling to tighten further. More US equity weakness, more downside. Way is shown by US equity dump. Periphery? What Periphery? What problem? Credit, EGBs, most commodities just watching. Dismal close.
"That's the Way (I Like It)" (Bunds 1,32% -2; Spain 5,86% -3; Stoxx 2429 -1,2%; EUR 1,27 -90)
15 Nov 2012 – “ Are You Gonna Go My Way? ” (Lenny Kravitz, 1993)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/15/2012 11:57 -0500The US crashing close yesterday was cushioned in Europe by better than expected (backward-looking) GDP figures in Germany and France. EZ in recession nevertheless. Limited fall-out, albeit lower (equity) levels tested. Periphery okay’ish, then good on better Italian GDP. Spain tag along with limited own dynamics, mainly trailing Risk assessment. EGBs difficult to move lower from here. Watching the US. Someone. Please. Show the way.
"Are You Gonna Go My Way? " (Bunds 1,34% +0; Spain 5,89% -3; Stoxx 2459% -0,6%; EUR 1,279 +50)
14 Nov 2012 – “ Way Down ” (Elvis Presley, 1977)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/14/2012 12:03 -0500See-sawing – and still looking for direction. Open weaker, in line with the US close. Some exuberance ahead of the Italian auction, despite negative figures. Awakening that nothing was justifying this. Re-correction while awaiting the US take of things. With the US opening flattish plus, Europe had a light lift and started tagging along, tick for tick, stuck in a loop. Some more European gloomy news to end the day. Way Down. For the moment mostly an equity move. And cut.
"Way Down" (Bunds 1,34% unch; Spain 5,92% +9; Stoxx 2475% -0,8%; EUR 1,274 +20)
13 Nov 2012 – “ That’s The Way ” (Led Zeppelin, 1970)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/13/2012 11:58 -0500As Greek discussions overnight revealed a spat between Europe and the IMF, and given yet another closing slump in the US, Risk started on a weak footing with Risk nearing Friday lows, before being ramped up by rumours, showered again and finally supported by the US opening in negative, albeit tame manner, before moving into positive territory and taking everything along. Given the noon despair, the afternoon relief seems…exuberant. Especially as the US still lead the way.
"That's The Way" (Bunds 1,34% unch; Spain 5,83% -5; Stoxx 2494% +0,8%; EUR 1,272 +1)
12 Nov 2012 – “ Show Me The Way ” (Peter Frampton, 1975)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/12/2012 11:54 -0500Rather quiet. Verdict still out, whether we’ll get a real rebound or whether the last days were already the dead cat bounce, before heading lower. Periphery on the soft side, but with restricted own dynamics and trailing general Risk sentiment. Waiting. For the US to show the way. Or something to happen.
"Show Me The Way" (Bunds 1,34% unch; Spain 5,88% +7; Stoxx 2473% -0,3%; EUR 1,271 unch)
