Pizzaflation is creeping through the nation. Inflation is slow, and subtle, and making our favorite things like Pizza unaffordable. Pizzaflation explains the deterioration of the US Dollar in something we all love; Pizza.
The bond market selloff of the past month or so, which has apparently fizzled just as Alan Greenspan was assuring the world it was only getting started (once more preserving for posterity how little he knows about bonds, interest rates, and money, as if knowing anything about any of those would be useful to a central banker). There is no bond market riddle. As each curve gets squashed by righteous pessimism, they together indicate nothing good about the near-term future.
Trump's attack on the Fed chairwoman during this week's presidential debate was so vicious that Paul Ashworth, chief US economist at Capital Economics, now thinks it's possible Yellen will have to resign if Trump ends up becoming president.
Alan Greenspan is confused – again. The man who admitted to the world a decade ago he didn’t know much if anything about interest rates is now trying to change that reputation by suggesting yet again interest rates are set to rise.
Unwittingly, the Fed has now become co-dependent on the markets. If they move to tighten monetary policy, the market sells-off impacting consumer confidence and pushes economic growth rates lower. With economic growth already running below 2%, there is very little leeway for the Fed to make a policy error at this juncture. Therefore, the Fed remains trapped between keeping the financial markets happy and trying to resolve their monetary dilemma. The problem is that eventually something has to give and it will likely not be the outcome the Fed continues to hope for.
"I’m now firmly in the camp that not only will the Fed not raise this year – they may not raise again for years. For they are not only “painted into a corner” via their own misdoings – they are chained there by Wall Street. They’ve missed the window..."
Over the years, the “wealth effect” has been taken as a core component of monetary policy. Central bankers will not admit it, of course, but particularly stock prices are a central element of their strategy. But no matter how high especially stock prices go, there is no wealth effect – NONE.
"It is very unclear at this time exactly how the BOJ intends to “control” the yield curve in the future. The question is how it will control the overall level and shape of the curve when financial and economic conditions change in the future."
A Clinton Presidency would assuredly mean a continuation of the ruinous policies of Greenspan and his successors. The election of Donald Trump could not only mean a new direction in monetary policy, but the public demotion of the likes of Alan Greenspan who will hopefully fade into the sunset never to be heard or seen from again.
Ken Rogoff is by all accounts a brilliant man. The Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist is a chess grandmaster. His thesis committee included current Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer. But like many survivors of Ivy League hoop jumping, the poor fellow appears to have emerged punch drunk. That’s the only conclusion to be drawn from Rogoff’s new book, The Curse of Cash , which, in effect, proposes a ban on paper currency.
It is time for central banks to start acknowledging their limitations, and doing so by acting and not talking about their future intentions. It is also time for investors to stop believing that central banks had the answers to begin with.