"As I look back, it now seems that, with all the thought and work and good intentions, which we provided, we achieved absolutely nothing… nothing that I did produced any good effect – or indeed any effect at all except that we collected money from a lot of poor devils and gave it over to the four winds."
Donald Trump will face his moment, like it or not. Barack Obama faced it and decided to kick the can down the road and opt for yet more “stimulus.” How Trump deals with it will determine whether or not the US economy recovers from bad policies, or goes the way of Japan and Europe.
This “powder keg” may not wait until then. For “then” (March) may be a moment too late. (Just ask Caesar).Circumstances are now showing this “powder keg” could in fact become – self-combusting. All courtesy of The Fed’s own words whether, stated, implied, written, or imagined.
"If markets don’t get the message or a gradual message isn’t gradual enough, traders won’t wait. They will want to get ahead of the curve and that could lead to a surge in yields. Some analysts predict yields will rise 15 to 20 basis points, but a fixed-income trader I spoke with said that may just be the reaction on the first day."
The Central Bank Strategy seems to be to just dance until the music stops, and Come What May when the shit hits the fan. Well in my book, that isn`t going to cut it after the financial crisis of 2008...
"The best approach is to allow a passive runoff of maturing assets, without attempting to vary the pace of rundown for policy purposes. Even with such a cautious approach, the effects of initiating a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet are uncertain. Accordingly, it would be prudent not to initiate that process until the short-term interest rate is safely away from the effective lower bound."