• Pivotfarm
    04/18/2014 - 12:44
    Peering in from the outside or through the looking glass at what’s going down on the other side is always a distortion of reality. We sit here in the west looking at the development, the changes and...

Ben Bernanke

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Why The Fed's Dual Mandate Is Doomed (In 2 Simple Charts)





While the Fed's official 'mandate' is do no evil maximize employment with stable prices, it is perhaps better understood (in recent decades) as pump credit, create bubbles, hope for job creation, and hope that inflation does not get out of control. So the following two charts from Citi suggest the Fed, no matter how much Taper or un-Taper they do, face some serious demographic headwinds from rising inflation and plunging stock valuations.

 


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As The Hedge Fund Slaughter Continues, Here Is Who Is Unwinding And What Stocks To Watch





The hedge fund slaughter continued for a second week in a row, and now we know at least one of the parties that was liquidating - curious which hedge fund is unwinding (the first of many)? Here is the answer: "On an investor call Thursday, Mr. Citrone said Discovery had reduced the amount of risk it was taking and that he remained confident that U.S. growth was accelerating." More importantly, for those curious where the pain will continue to be focused as the HF unwind accelerates, here are the most held long hedge fund positions which if indeed the unwind has begun, will be slaughtered in the coming days.

 


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Zillow Study Shows 1 In 3 Homes Are Unaffordable, But Vacation-Home Sales Are Soaring





In a further demonstration of the socially destructive and ever widening gap between the haves and have nots, we see that the affluent are buying second homes at an ever increasing clip (up 30% last year), while first home buyers recede into the abyss as private equity and Chinese buyers make purchasing a home unaffordable for the average American. Specifically, a recent study from Zillow showed that more than half the homes in seven major American cities are unaffordable based on historical standards.

 


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How Much Bad Debt Can China Absorb?





China is coming under close scrutiny these days, as the leadership scurries to find new sources of economic growth and control its debt. Some analysts have reassured China watchers that the Chinese government can simply write off its bad debt, at least within the major banks, and pass it on to the asset management companies that handle that resale of distressed debt (or have it later purchased by the Ministry of Finance). Others have warned that some of the debt is serious, such as that incurred by local government financing vehicles, and are dubious about the sustainability of these entities. To worry or unwind? How much debt can China really absorb?

 


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Guest Post: The Screaming Fundamentals For Owning Gold





The reasons to hold gold (and silver), and we mean physical bullion, are pretty straightforward. So let’s begin with the primary ones:

  1. To protect against monetary recklessness
  2. As insulation against fiscal foolishness
  3. As insurance against the possibility of a major calamity in the banking/financial system
  4. For the embedded 'option value' that will pay out handsomely if gold is re-monetized

The punch line is this: Gold (and silver) is not in bubble territory, and its largest gains remain yet to be realized; especially if current monetary, fiscal, and fundamental supply-and-demand trends remain in play.

 


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Deflating the Deflation Myth





The fear of deflation serves as the theoretical justification of every inflationary action taken by the Federal Reserve and central banks around the world. It is why the Federal Reserve targets a price inflation rate of 2 percent, and not 0 percent. It is in large part why the Federal Reserve has more than quadrupled the money supply since August 2008. And it is, remarkably, a great myth, for there is nothing inherently dangerous or damaging about deflation. Now unmoored from any gold standard constraints and burdened with massive government debt, in any possible scenario pitting the spectre of deflation against the ravages of inflation, the biases and phobias of central bankers will choose the latter. This choice is as inevitable as it will be devastating.

 


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David Stockman: "A Gang Of Unelected PhDs Have Staged An Economics Coup D'Etat"





America is being run by an unelected gang of essentially self-perpetuating PhDs. The notion of an economics coup d’ etat is not so far-fetched.  So the last 35 years have brought the greatest exercise in mission creep ever undertaken by an agency of the state. That explains why the monetary politburo persists in its absurd quest to force more debt into an economy which is already saturated with $59 trillion of the same. To pretend, as does Yellen and most of the monetary politburo that they must plow ahead printing money at lunatic rates because Congress so mandated it, is the height of mendacity. The Fed has seized power and is not about to let go - common sense be damned, and the constitution, too.

 


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$242 Billion: That Is How Much Record "Window Dressing" Banks Got Today Thanks To The Fed





Just over an hour ago the Fed disclosed that as part of its most recent reverse repo operation, it had handed out to 93 dealer banks and other financial intermediaries, both foreign and domestic, some $242 billion in Treasurys in what is now the biggest reverse repo operation in history, a privilege for which the collateral-starved banks paid the Fed the king's ransom of 0.05% in annual interest, i.e., nothing.

 


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Mark Faber: The Old World Order Is Over





"The US reached a peak in prosperity and influence in the world in the 1950s or 1960s," Marc Faber explains to an Australian audience at the recent World War D conference; but since the 70s the superpower has been locked into a cycle of bubbles, busts and growing debt. "There are some people who claim to be economists who will tell you debts do not matter," but the real story is different, he warns. "When you drop dollar bills into the economy... it won't lift all prices and assets equally at the same time," Faber explains, "in the 60s and 70s, extra money flowing through the economy inflated wages; in the early 2000s, money printing inflated commodities;" but, the Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report editor points out, this price and asset growth is never equal, warning that "we live in a new word... where the old world order is largely bypassed."

 


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David Stockman: Why We Are Plagued With Drivel Masquerading As Financial Reporting





One of the evils of massive over-financialization is that it enables Wall Street to scalp vast “rents” from the Main Street economy. These zero sum extractions not only bloat the paper wealth of the 1% but also fund a parasitic bubble finance infrastructure that would largely not exist in a world of free market finance and honest money. The infrastructure of bubble finance can be likened to the illegal drug cartels. In that dystopic world, the immense revenue “surplus” from the 1000-fold elevation of drug prices owing to government enforced scarcity finances a giant but uneconomic apparatus of sourcing, transportation, wholesaling, distribution, corruption, coercion, murder and mayhem that would not even exist in a free market. The latter would only need LTL trucking lines and $900 vending machines. In this context, the sprawling empire known as Bloomberg LP is the Juarez Cartel of bubble finance.

 


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Janet Yellen Is Caught Between A Rock And A Hard Place





"The idea that stimulation, even if only in form but not reality, can be withdrawn without draconian economic results is simply false. Chair Yellen is truly dedicated to full employment and is going to go into shock over the next few short months at the divergence between her economic modeling, the behavioral economic projections and the degree of economic contraction in the US." The US (and world) economy are not growing. Ben Bernanke and his counterparts in other countries pumped like mad to hide the dysfunction. Flooding with liquidity did nothing to heal the distortions and made them worse.

 

 


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The "Massive Gift" That Keeps On Giving: How QE Boosted Inequality To Levels Surpassing The Great Depression





A week ago, the official truth about QE finally emerged when the Fed's Fisher admitted that "QE was a massive gift intended to boost wealth." Fisher did not need to clarify just who the gift was aimed at - it was clear . But just in case there is any confusion, here is a chart confirming that all the events of the past 5 years have done, courtesy of the Fed's manipulation of the stock market to all time artificial highs, is to push the ratio of the average income of the "Top 10%" to the "Bottom 10%" to a previously unseen level, wildly surpassing the previous record inequailty highs that culminated in the Great Depression, and which were subsequently rapidly "equalized" by WWII.

 


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How The BRICs (Thanks To Russia) Just Kicked The G-7 Out Of The G-20





International discord over Ukraine does not bode well for the settlement of differences over the IMF’s future. Though the G7 is excluding Russia from its number, in retaliation for its action in Crimea, this does not amount to isolating Russia. There has been no suggestion that Russia be excluded from the G20. The USA and its allies have suspected that several other G20 members would not stand for it. This suspicion was confirmed yesterday when the BRICS foreign ministers, assembled at the international conference in The Hague, issued a statement condemning ‘the escalation of hostile language, sanctions and counter-sanctions’. They affirmed that the custodianship of the G20 belongs to all member-states equally and no one member-state can unilaterally determine its nature and character. In short, their statement read like a manifesto for a pluralist world in which no one nation, bloc or set of values would predominate.

 


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