Ben Bernanke

The Unintended & Deadly Societal Consequences Of Quantitative Easing

"As I look back, it now seems that, with all the thought and work and good intentions, which we provided, we achieved absolutely nothing… nothing that I did produced any good effect – or indeed any effect at all except that we collected money from a lot of poor devils and gave it over to the four winds."

Spot The (Yield Curve) Difference

Something to keep in mind as "reflation", "recovery", "stimulus", and whatever else we can put between quotation marks comes up all over again...

After Obama, A New Dawn Or More Of The Same?

Donald Trump will face his moment, like it or not. Barack Obama faced it and decided to kick the can down the road and opt for yet more “stimulus.” How Trump deals with it will determine whether or not the US economy recovers from bad policies, or goes the way of Japan and Europe.

February’s FOMC Meeting: A Powder Keg In Search Of A Match

This “powder keg” may not wait until then. For “then” (March) may be a moment too late. (Just ask Caesar). Circumstances are now showing this “powder keg” could in fact become – self-combusting. All courtesy of The Fed’s own words whether, stated, implied, written, or imagined.

Why Unwinding The Fed's Balance Sheet Could Get Messy

"If markets don’t get the message or a gradual message isn’t gradual enough, traders won’t wait. They will want to get ahead of the curve and that could lead to a surge in yields. Some analysts predict yields will rise 15 to 20 basis points, but a fixed-income trader I spoke with said that may just be the reaction on the first day."

Why Ben Bernanke Thinks The Fed Shouldn't Shrink Its Balance Sheet

"The best approach is to allow a passive runoff of maturing assets, without attempting to vary the pace of rundown for policy purposes. Even with such a cautious approach, the effects of initiating a reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet are uncertain. Accordingly, it would be prudent not to initiate that process until the short-term interest rate is safely away from the effective lower bound."

Howard Marks: "So Much For The Experts"

"The opinions of experts concerning the future are accorded great weight . . . but they’re still just opinions. While I take a dim view of forecasts, and especially of opinions presented as facts, I do believe there are such things as facts.  Unfortunately, however, the concept of 'facts' is among the casualties of the increasingly partisan environment.  Recently we have seen both the elevation in status of 'non-facts', as well as the tearing down of 'real facts'."

The Well-Reasoned Basis Of Populism

The rise of populism isn’t the politics of rejecting experts, it is the rejection of these “experts” – who quite frankly deserve more than voter disdain. Credentials have come to be seen by a very large and growing proportion of the global population to declare incompetence, having nothing at all to do with intellectual capacity apart from objectivity. It isn’t the denial of reasoned argument but rather the logical end of it.