A few weeks ago we pointed out what may be the most troubling (and Marxist) observation in America's labor arena, namely that the labor's share of national income has dropped to the lowest in history as a record number of Americans now focus on wealth creation through assets (i.e. owners of capital) instead of labor. In his just released latest letter (below) Bill Gross piggybacks on this observation in what is one of the most scathing notes blasting the traditional of higher education, and in essence claiming that college, as means of perpetuating a broken employment status quo whcih redirect labor to a now-expiring Wall Street labor model, is now worthless: "The past
several decades have witnessed an erosion of our manufacturing base in
exchange for a reliance on wealth creation via financial assets. Now,
as that road approaches a dead-end cul-de-sac via interest rates that
can go no lower, we are left untrained, underinvested and overindebted
relative to our global competitors. The precipitating
cause of our structural employment break is both internal neglect and
external competition. Blame us. Blame them. There’s plenty of blame to
go around." And why college graduates have only a 6 digit loan to look forward to: "American citizens and its universities have experienced an ivy-laden ivory tower for the past half century. Students, however, can no longer assume that a four year degree will be the golden ticket to a good job in a global economy that cares little for their social networking skills and more about what their labor is worth on the global marketplace." And some very bad news for the communists in the White House and the chimpanzees in the San Francisco Fed who continue to believe that unemployment is anything but structural: "The “golden” days are over, and it’s time our school and jobs “daze” comes to an end to be replaced by programs that do more than mimic failed establishment policies favoring Wall as opposed to Main Street."
Doubling Down On Bailout CDOs: EFSF Guarantees To Be Raised From €440 Bn To €780 Bn As Europe Prepares For Spain FailureSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/20/2011 08:37 -0400
According to flashing headlines, the CDO better known as the European Financial Stability Fund will be increased to guarantee €780 billion in the future, up from €440 billion currently (the same EFSF which currently sees Greece, which has no money left at all, guaranteeing €12.4 billion of European bailouts). This was largely expected previously as many had noted that the EFSF in its current form is insufficient to cover the liabilities of Spain once the country is swept away to the Greek insolvency tsunami. Alas, for the EURUSD which is seeing this as good news, and has surged on the announcement, this development actually means that Europe is taking proactive steps to fund Spain imminently when the house of cards start falling potentially as soon as Tuesday night. This is nothing but a Spain, and then Italy, backstop. However, for Italy to be covered, expect the total covered amount to be €1. 5 trillion. Did the Eurozone just blink?
The "on again, off again, but totally clueless" European bailout whose fate may be cemented with a negative vote of confidence tomorrow in Greece, in what may be the most important offshore government decision in European history, continues to slaughter PIGS as the 10 Year Portuguese-Bund spread just blew out by 35 bps to a new all time high of 914 bps. From Reuters: "The premium investors demand to hold Portuguese 10-year government bonds rather than benchmark German Bunds hit a fresh euro lifetime high on Monday, due to ongoing concerns about Greece's immediate financing situation. Yields on bonds issued by euro zone's lower rated states were broadly higher after ministers delayed granting emergency loans for Greece. "There's general contagion in the periphery ... There's not a huge amount of trading but because the market is so thin prices are being marked wide on the screen," a trader said. "People are putting very defensive prices out there with the bid/offer being a lot wider."" And while risk is broadly off on the screen, this is wonderful news to Ben Bernanke, who as we have been saying for months now, will need crude to drop to at least $85, and the S&P to triple digits, to have a solid case for pushing on with more suicidal Keynesian policies (the cure for record debt is more debtTM). Again from Reuters: "Crude oil prices fell by more than $1 on Monday, extending last week's losses, with risk aversion rising after euro zone finance ministers postponed a final decision on emergency loans to Greece. "The crisis in Greece has resulted in higher risk aversion, which is weighing on oil prices," Commerzbank analysts led by Eugen Weinberg said in a note.
Goldman Sachs summarizes the key events in what promises to be a most exciting week: "The Eurogroup Finance Ministers are meeting Sunday night and Monday (June 19-20), while a G7 conference call on Greece is scheduled for Sunday night as well. Germany has already softened its position regarding private sector participation in a second Greek support package. More headlines with respect to the Greece rescue can be expected in the coming days. The upcoming week will also be marked by the EU summit of Heads of State towards the end of the week. Beyond Greece the two key events are the FOMC meeting and press conference, which will be interesting, given the Fed currently faces a challenging deterioration in the growth-inflation trade-off. Finally, cyclical data disappointed last week, further adding evidence of a "soft patch" with the Philly Fed and the U of Michigan consumer confidence reports printing below consensus. Next week, we will find out whether European survey data and US durable goods orders confirm this trend of cyclical deceleration or whether they point to cyclical divergence across the Atlantic."
Indeed, the next Crisis is coming. And it will make 2008 look like a picnic. Why? Because this time around the Crisis will involve entire countries, rather than just banks (see Greece today). It’s going to be really REALLY bad. And I would argue that 99% of people are completely ignorant of it.
It is Friday night, which means that any bad and self-discrediting news from Goldman Sachs are due any minute. Sure enough, the squid does not disappoint: "Following another dose of disappointing economic data, we have cut
our Q2 growth estimate to 2% (annualized) from 3%. We also have issued a
preliminary forecast for the manufacturing ISM in June of 52.0. At this
point, we still expect a bounceback in Q3 and beyond, but will need to
see significant improvement in the data over the next few weeks to
maintain that view." Zero Hedge's own ISM outlook is for a 48 print. And as we will comment on later, as JPM's Michael Feroli demonstrates, the fate of the economic pick up in Q3 is all up to car sales surging by about 58% on an annualized basis as predicted by IHS. Good luck with that. As we said yesterday, we expect Goldman to lower its H2 outlook to under 2% within a month, most likely following the next ISM miss and the disappointing NFP report due out in 2 weeks.
Despite their many differences, the economies of China and the U.S. share a number of key traits: both are corrupt, rigged, crony-Capitalist, rely on phony statistics and propaganda and operate with two sets of rules: one for the Elites, and another for the masses. Given these similarities, it's no wonder that the wheels are falling off both economies. There are some key differences, of course, which will make the crashing of China's boom all the harder. China's leadership likes to do things in a big way, and so its campaign of "extend and pretend" over the past three years has been unprecedented. This isn't just the consequence of a Command Economy overseen by a Central State; the "extend and pretend" boom was fueled by stupendous borrowing by local governments and private enterprise as well. This flood of money has severely distorted China's economy, yet the imbalances are now normalized. When a system become this precarious and imbalanced, it can best be modeled by stick/slip destabilization: blaming the last grain of sand that destabilizes the entire pile for the collapse is to ignore the real cause: the entire system is unstable. Here are a few factors which are widely misunderstood or discounted by the mainstream financial media.
Does it seem like we’ve been here before? A barrel of Brent Crude (the truest indicator of worldwide oil scarcity) sits at $118, up from $75 per barrel in July 2010 – a 57% increase in eleven months. In the U.S., the average price of gasoline is $3.69 per gallon this week, up 37% in the last year and up 100% in the last 30 months. The pundits and politicians are responding predictably. They blame the Libyan revolution, the dreaded speculators and that old fallback – Big Oil. When the Middle East turmoil began in earnest in January, gas prices had already risen 15% in three months, spurred by increased worldwide demand and by Ben Bernanke’s printing press. Congressmen have reacted in their usual kneejerk politically motivated fashion by demanding that supplies be released from the Strategic Oil Reserve. Congress has a little trouble with the concept of “strategic.” They also have difficulty dealing with a reality that has been staring them in the face for decades. Politicians will always disregard prudent, long-term planning for vote-generating talk and gestures.
Manipulation is the beating heart of Federal Reserve and Central State policies. The centrally planned economy has failed to respond as expected, and so the response is to put more cocaine-laced pellets in the feedbox and encourage the poor starved rat inside the cage to press the bar labeled "debt" to get another pellet of addiction and highly profitable enslavement. Welcome to Manipulation Nation, a.k.a. the unlimited debt experiment. Think rat cage, one bar to press, and unlimited cocaine-laced pellets.
- Fed Officials Discuss Explicit Inflation Target (Bloomberg)
- No Fed Shift Seen at June Gathering (Jon Hilsenrath)
- China Developers’ Outlook Lowered to ‘Negative’ by S&P as Credit Tightens (Bloomberg)
- SEC probes Merrill CDO sale (FT), Is Andrew Ross Sorkin already drafting explanation how Merrill was not, repeat NOT short anything? Or is Bank of America just not a Dealbook sponsor?
- The Economy Is Now Immune to Keynesian Crack (Peter Schiff)
- Rosenberg '99%' sure of U.S. recession (Forbes)
- China Inflation Heading for 6% Shows Danger for Wen Extending Rate Pause (Bloomberg)
- White House wants business to aid in debt cap fight (Reuters)
Contagion Risk Increases – Euro Falls As Moody’s May Cut Rating On 3 Large French Banks Exposed To GreeceSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/15/2011 07:20 -0400
The euro has fallen on international markets as the European sovereign debt crisis is deepening and appears to be reaching a dangerous denouement. European stock markets are also weaker due to serious divisions in Greece and in the EU as to how to resolve the Eurozone debt crisis and prevent contagion. Moody's has placed three large French banks on negative review based on their exposure to Greece. The problem looks increasingly intractable meaning that contagion appears more likely every day. Gold is higher against the euro, pound and Swiss franc and lower against the U.S. dollar, the yen, Kiwi and Aussie dollar. Demand continues to be very strong especially from China and India where the World Gold Council said that there is a “tidal wave” of “gold demand coming”. The dollar is firmer despite yesterday’s stern warning from Bernanke that America’s credit rating is at risk. Bernanke urged policy makers to again increase the debt ceiling – this time to over $14.3 trillion – in the hope that this will prevent a U.S. downgrade.
Bill Gross released a very troubling tweet earlier:
Why is it odd? Because as David Rosenberg predicted two weeks ago when he expected that Operation Twist could be coming back with the Fed "capping" the 10 Year, Bill Gross, who has Larry "Fed Expert Network" Meyer in his ear and thus knows better than most what is coming, is predicting some "Twisting" though not at the 10 Year mark, but at the very short end. This is very disturbing. Because as we suggested at the end of May, QE3 will in reality be Operation Twist 2...
We know our readers are excited to watch a speech headlining the Chairsatan and moderated by Steve Liesman. Which is precisely what will happen at 2:30pm at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget ("bipartisan group of budget experts concerned about this nation's fiscal future."). You can watch the webcast live below. The full chairsatanic speech can be found here.
Bernanke told the Japanese Central Bank what to do eight years ago. It is the same playbook for America today. It didn't work for Japan. It won't work for the USA either.
Today's Economic Data Docket - Less Retail Sales And More Producer Price Increases Lead To Better StagflationSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/14/2011 07:56 -0400
The heavy economic data week begins with Retail Sales, expected to come negative, a drop from April, and PPI, expected to post another solid gain in the past month. In the meantime NFIB small business optimism declined in May, as expected.