Of all the developed countries, Japan is in the worst condition economically. Most others, including the United States, are following the same path to insanity though. Unlike Japan, other countries may have time to implement policy changes that will allow them to avoid Japan’s desperate circumstances.
People are assuming there’s only one way to fight a war today of global proportions. We're not in that camp. We believe it will come monetarily – not military. At least at first. For once it takes place all bets are off as to what happens next.The obvious first mover advantage for China (and all its current allies) would be to use the rhetoric coming out of the current U.S. political arena, along with current, as well as proposed monetary policies via the Fed, ECB, and Japan.
"I'd like to think that logic and reality will prevail; that distaste for being told how great the world is has become sufficiently revolting and obviously false to stir the world’s populace to end the imbalances. But that, again, will take time, perhaps a good deal of time; until then, whenever it hopefully is, central banks continue to operate with impunity even though the risks of their intemperance rise exponentially..."
A good, old-fashioned, pre-1929 depression (like the short-lived, eleven-month depression in 1920-1921, before the days of “modern” central banking and “enlightened” Keynesian intervention “cures”) is the only tonic that can clear out the malinvestment built up since the beginning of the fiat money era.
In a surprising rejection of Ben Bernanke, BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that there will be no helicopter money in Japan, amid increasing speculation over monetary and fiscal policy in the world’s third-largest economy. Given the current institutional setting, there is "no need and no possibility for helicopter money," Kuroda said in a BBC Radio 4 program that was broadcast Thursday. “At this moment, the Bank of Japan has three options with quantitative and qualitative easing with negative interest rates."
As the chart below shows, those who covered their USDJPY shorts lucked out; better yet anyone who went long the USDJPY, just experienced the move of a lifetime because the Yen just had its biggest weekly drop in the 21st century, going all the way back to 1999.
The tremendous rally of the past 4 days that has sent global stocks soaring in recent days has finally been capped and European shares, S&P futures are all modestly lower following a deadly terror attack in Nice, France. Meanwhile Asian stocks rose as Chinese economic data beat estimates, with Q2 GDP rising by 0.1% more than the estimated 6.6% on the back of stronger housing data.
"Adopting helicopter money in the strict sense is impossible as it's prohibited by law," said one of the officials. "If it's about the BOJ buying huge amounts of bonds and the government deploying fiscal stimulus, we're already doing that." Japan shouldn't make its central bank directly underwrite government borrowing, "or it could suffer the kind of runaway spending and inflation that followed a similar move in the 1930s."
Despite Bernanke's insistence to keep his mouth shut about what transpired during his historic meeting, the answer leaked out anyway: Koichi Hamada, a close adviser of the prime minister, said Mr. Bernanke may have discussed helicopter money with Japanese officials he met with during his visit, including BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda and Ministry of Finance policy makers.
What had previously only been hinted by the likes of former US attorney general Eric Holder who infamous said some banks are "too big to prosecute" shortly before resigning, became fact when a US Congressional report found that US officials refused to prosecute HSBC for money laundering in 2012 because of concerns within the DOJ that it would cause a "global financial disaster."
When we first heard this past Thursday that private blogger and Citadel employee Ben Bernanke was going to "secretly" meet with both the BOJ's Haruhiko Kuroda and Japan PM Abe, we warned readers that "something big was coming." Two trading days later, with the USDJPY higher by 200 pips and soaring after something big indeed came overnight from Japan: nothing less than the first "lite" instance of helicopter money .