Bitcoin

While the S&P 500 closed at record highs (and VIX near record lows), Marc Faber says the "momentum sell-off has caused serious internal damage to the market," with many of the most-loved and most-levered stocks down 30-50%. Interestingly Faber warns that if bond bears are correct and rates rise to 4% then stock prices "will really tumble." But it is China that worries him the most. Faber warns that Chinese growth figures are a fallacy and that "if one analyzes the data carefully" it is clear that "China is growing at most 4%" and given the "gigantic credit bubble" the outlook is not hopeful as the sharp deceleration in growth is likely to continue. Faber also has strong words for Western nations treatment of the rest of the world and "the US will have to back off.. because China is so important."

Yes, U.S. capital markets have officially gone "Full Seinfeld"; As ConvergEX's Nick Colas notes, Tuesday’s selloff over “Nothing” reversed higher Wednesday throuygh Friday for similarly non-specific reasons. So, today we will go a little further afield and talk about words and what they tell us about shifting societal priorities and norms. Wonder what the most commonly searched word might be on the Merriam-Webster website?  It is “Pragmatic”... which seems incredibly ironic given the total lack of pragmatism that appears to be shown in world markets.

The Bitcoin space is heating up so quickly that not only are hundreds of millions of dollars being funneling into startups, PayPal has introduced a product that actually undercuts Bitcoin payment processors! Uh Oh Visa/Mastercard! Margin compression, here we come!

"I am owed 28,296 Bitcoins. I do not accept United States dollars, as it is the preferred currency of criminal organizations such as the FBI, DOJ, ATF, and Federal Reserve and I do not assist criminal racketeering enterprises."

Bitcoin's competitive environ is already prompting a race towards negative margin, and despite such VCs have dumped nearly $100 million in 3 companies in as many months. Here's what I see coming down the pike...

Underappreciated risks to electronic bitcoin and all forms of investments and savings today, including gold, that are held electronically come in the form of modern warfare - involving as it does cyberwarfare and electromagnetic warfare. No electricity and no computer or internet access and you cannot access your savings, investments and money ...

• Bank of England sees 'no housing bubble' (Independent)
• ‘If the euro falls, Europe falls’ (FT)
• India's pro-business Modi storms to historic election win (Reuters)
• Global Growth Worries Climb (WSJ)
• Bitcoin Foundation hit by resignations over new director (Reuters)
• Blackstone Goes All In After the Flop (WSJ)
• SAC's Steinberg loses bid for insider trading acquittal (Reuters)
• Beats Satan: Republicans Paint Reid as Bogeyman in 2014 Senate Races (BBG)
• Tech Firms, Small Startups Object to Paying for Internet 'Fast Lanes' (WSJ) - but they just provide liquidity
• U.S. Warns Russia of Sanctions as Ukraine Troops Advance (BBG)
• Major U.S. hedge funds sold 'momentum' Internet names in first-quarter (Reuters)

And in Cyprus when it happened, the authorities said it was a once-off, because of all of the hot Russian money that is in Cyprus, and this will not happen anywhere else...but meanwhile they are planning for that scenario in most of our countries. People need to be aware of that and they need to prepare.

How much is the future of Global Finance really worth? I fear we're soon about to find out!

• Omnicom, Publicis call off proposed $35 billion merger (Reuters)
• Apple in talks for $3.2bn Beats deal (FT)
• Alibaba IPO Grew Out of ’80s Chaos and Guy From Goldman (BBG)
• Nigeria's president at WEF pledges to free kidnapped girls (Reuters)
• JPMorgan Joins Wells Fargo in Rolling Out Jumbo Offerings (BBG)
• It's 1999 all over again: Young Bankers Fed Up With 90-Hour Weeks Move to Startups (BBG)
• ECB stimulus talk knocks euro, peripheral yields (Reuters)
• Deutsche Bank Currency Crown Lost to Citigroup on Volatility (BBG)
• London Taxis Plan 10,000-Car Protest Against Uber App Use (BBG)
• Pfizer Holders Could Face Tax Hit in a Deal for AstraZeneca (WSJ)

A division of the U.S. military known as the Combating Terrorism Technical Support Office (CTTSO), which studies threats to national security (i.e., the status quo’s grip on power) has listed Bitcoin amongst a number of potential terrorist threats. Of course, as we and many others have noted repeatedly, anything which threatens the prevailing criminal status quo will be merely labeled a “terrorist threat” in order to neutralize it. Just in case you aren’t yet convinced of how insane the folks at CTTSO are, “also on the CTTSO’s list of terrorism research topics were Android, Motorola, social media and virtual reality.” What has happened to this country...

From 110 slides of Ackman-inspired Fannie Mae bullishness to Tudor-Jones "Central Bank Viagra", and from Jim Grant's "Buy Gazprom because it's the worst-managed company in the world" to Jeff Gundlach's housing recovery bearishness and "never seeing 1.5 million home starts ever again"... there was a little here for every bull, dick, and harry at the Ira Sohn conference. Perhaps noted behavioral psychologist said its best though: "be careful about the quality of advice you get."

This time is different - check; Moral Hazard - check; Easy Money - check; Overblown growth stories - check; No valuation anchor - check; Conspicuous consumption - check; Ponzi finance - check... and, of course, Irrational exuberance: check!

Journalism and investment research have a lot in common, notes ConvergEx's Nick Colas; after all, both essentially ask the customer to freely part with three scarce resources: time, attention and money. It’s been a tough decade or two for both the newsroom and the research department in that effort, but at least one prominent venture capitalist, Marc Andreessen, thinks there is a future for the news business, however, due to a rising middle class in emerging markets and mobile Internet distribution. While this audience may not (yet/ever) be hankering to read Buy-Sell-Hold reports on their smartphones, Andreessen’s recently published 8-fold strategy for journalism has lessons for investment research as well. The big takeaway: sell-side research needs to change a lot – and quickly - to survive as anything more than an advertising vehicle for brokerage firms.

• EU regulators unveil details of bank stress tests (FT)
• Just use NSAfari: U.S., UK advise avoiding Internet Explorer until bug fixed (Reuters)
• China’s Income Inequality Surpasses U.S., Posing Risk for Xi  (BBG)
• US races to refuel infrastructure fund as revenue dries up (FT)
• New Era Dawns at Nokia as Company Appoints CEO, Plans $1.4 Billion Special Dividend, Share-Repurchase Program (WSJ)
• Obama reassures allies, but doubts over 'pivot' to Asia persist (Reuters)
• Dissent at SEC over bank waivers (FT)
• U.S. Banks to Help Authorities with Tax Evasion Probe (WSJ)
• U.S., Europe Impose New Sanctions on Russia (WSJ)
• Why the U.S. Is Targeting the Business Empire of a Putin Ally (BBG)
• Euro-Area April Economic Confidence Unexpectedly Declines (BBG)
• Bitcoin traders settle class actions over failed Mt. Gox exchange (Reut