Bitcoin

At first glance, when the CIO of Fortress Investment Group says:

"Put a little money in Bitcoin...Come back in a few years and it’s going to be worth a lot."

One might think, the firm that manages $54.6 billion is advocating the end of the USD as we know it... Or is this more muppetry at work?

Just last week we noted that the cryptocurrency was quietly surging towards record highs once again as the debacle in Washington, China's comments on the USD, and Baidu's acceptance of Bitcoins all interplayed to disrupt what many called he end of Bitcoin following the shuttering of Silk Road. Just yesterday, Bitcoin rose to almost USD235, within touching distance of April's record high... but then this morning, it collapsed to under $175 (as its liquidity reflected NFLX not global FX). The last couple of hours have seen the price bounce back to $210, but if you like high-beta vol, then Bitcoin is the new TSLA...

The last week has seen dramatic upwards price action in the bitcoin markets, driven by a series of macro and micro events across the globe. The fallout from Silk Road’s closure turned out to be but a blip in bitcoin’s price history, with significant gains since then. Turmoil in global financial markets and recent news of leading global websites accepting bitcoin may have bolstered enthusiasm for digital currency, but most interesting may be CNY’s definitive recent price leadership.

Even as Washington stares into a fiscal abyss of its own construction, there is one bright spot: the ongoing global popularity of the $100 bill. The U.S. Treasury/Federal Reserve launched their latest version of the venerable C-Note just this week, printing $350 billion worth over the last 12 months to meet anticipated robust worldwide demand. Given that $100 bills last about 15 years in circulation, ConvergEx's Nick Colas notes that these record amounts seem to indicate very strong worldwide demand for hard currency rather just replacing old stock. In the US, by contrast, the ‘Cashless economy’ is coming hard and fast.

In a follow-up to the recent discussions surrounding the Silk Road website bust, we thought it interesting that the FBI finds itself unable to confiscate the Dread Pirate's stash of bitcoins. In other words, one of bitcoin's main attraction – that it is untraceable like cash and cannot be 'stolen' in the conventional sense by outsiders – remains in perfectly fine fettle. The FBI's inability to seize the Dread Pirate's bitcoin stash is a great PR victory for bitcoin.

Earlier today, one of the most popular websites that use and promote the use of BitCoin, Silk Road, was shut down by the US government. As Reuters reports, U.S. law enforcement authorities raided an Internet site that served as a marketplace for illegal drugs, including heroin and cocaine, and arrested its owner, the Federal Bureau of Investigation said on Wednesday. The FBI arrested Ross William Ulbricht, known as "Dread Pirate Roberts," in San Francisco on Tuesday, according to court filings. Federal prosecutors charged Ulbricht with one count each of narcotics trafficking conspiracy, computer hacking conspiracy and money laundering conspiracy, according to a court filing. Anyone visiting the site would be greeted with the following "game over" screen.

• The new normal name of a broken market: glitches - NYSE, Nasdaq Consider Cooperating to Address Glitches (WSJ)
• Early Thursday Humor: Abe Tells Wall Street Japan’s Economy Is Exceptionally Good (BBG)
• Rising Rates Seen Squeezing Swaps Income at Biggest Banks (BBG)
• JPMorgan Mortgage Talks Said to Discuss $11 Billion Deal (BBG)
• Can't make this up: HFT firm "finds" Fed did not leak data early to benefit HFT firms (FT)
• Hertz Cuts Full-Year Forecast on Weak U.S. Airport Rentals (BBG)
• Greece does not need third bailout, seeks debt 'reprofiling' - deputy PM (Reuters) - right, it needs a fourth and fifth
• Hezbollah gambles all in Syria (Reuters)
• Twitter Adds J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley as Bankers on IPO (WSJ)
• Messi in Court Shows Tax Collectors Set to Pursue Star Athletes (BBG)

Only a few years back, the majority of people were saying that the dollar was as good as gold. Today, even those who insist that fiat currencies are not only safe, but the only means by which commerce can reasonably occur, are admitting that they are getting a bit nervous regarding the assurance that their own currency will not be either somehow confiscated or grossly devaluated. But there is a new currency arising - Bitcoin - and it promises, like banknotes before it, to solve all the problems of currencies. Just as paper gold is proving not to truly exist, except as a promise by financial institutions, and fiat currencies are also teetering on the edge, there is every reason to believe that the latest in “theoretical” currencies may disappear at some point in the future. However, as they have throughout millennia, precious metals will continue to shine in all corners of the globe.

This is The System Of The World. It lays out in logical frankness how the various layers of the facade we call “democracy” and “free markets” interoperate and together create a grotesque caricature of the ideals they purport to serve and keep us all enslaved. Join us on a trip through The System.

The story of the German Finance Ministry stating Bitcoin is essentially “legal tender” has been making the rounds all over the virtual currency and technology world this morning and for good reason. This is a very, very big deal. Not just because some bureaucrat seemingly “legitimizes” the crypto-currency, but because it is the first commonsense approach from a major economy to-date. While the U.S. government runs around like a chicken with its head cut off, issuing subpoenas and launching Senate investigations on Bitcoin, Germany is merely accepting the obvious. A lot of people will state this is merely a veiled move of support in order to make sure the government can install a system of taxation on Bitcoin. While that is no doubt part of it, do not underestimate Mr. Schaeffler quoting Hayek. More than anything else, we believe this represents a psychological and cultural step change toward the realities of the future. A more decentralized and freer world.

Over the last thirty some odd years, the world has seen an unprecedented level of economic growth and prosperity. That much is certain. However, things are not as they appear when the bullish rose-tinted glasses that most view the world through are removed.

And the issue is debt.

Most readers have probably heard of the Silk Road. No, not the historical trade routes that linked Europe to Asia, but rather the online illegal drug marketplace accessible only via anonymity browsing software Tor, and where the only currency accepted is Bitcoin. Those of you who have heard about it, probably know far less about the man that runs it. A character who only goes by the name Dread Pirate Roberts. Irrespective of what you think of the Silk Road specifically, there is no doubt it has led the way in figuring out a way to retain a certain level of anonymity and privacy within the surveillance state due to the nature of its business. We can all learn from, and hopefully improve on their tactics, as we transition from extreme centralization to a more decentralized and freer world. 

• This won't end well: Islamists call Cairo protest march as Egypt death toll mounts (Reuters)
• JPMorgan Said to Expect Multiple Fines for Whale Loss (BBG)
• Ex-bosses at JPMorgan unlikely to face charges in 'Whale' scandal (Reuters)
• China could target oil firms, telecoms, banks in price probes (Reuters)
• For once, it's not the weather's fault: U.K. Retail Sales Increase More Than Forecast on Heatwave (BBG)
• Japanese visits to shrine on war anniversary anger China (Reuters)
• India Fighting Worst Crisis Since ’91 Seeks to Buoy Rupee (BBG)
• Japan Signals Corporate Tax Cut a Long Shot as Deflation Eases (Reuters)
• Indonesia Tackles Graft in Energy Sector (Reuters)
• Merkel Touts Strength of German Economy (WSJ)
• and... British stuntman who parachuted into London Olympics opening ceremony as James Bond dies in fall (AP)

• Vocal billionaire activist IRR - 150x: Icahn bought $1 billion of AAPL stock, seeks $150 billion buyback (BBG)
• BlackBerry Said to Have Sought Buyers Since 2012 (BBG) - for a phone or the entire company?
• IPhone Fingerprint Reader Talk Boosting Biometric Stocks (BBG) - also, the NSA will need to grow its Utah data center
• UPS Jet Crashes in Birmingham, Ala. (WSJ)
• America's Farm-Labor Pool Is Graying (WSJ)
• Hong Kong Lowers Storm Signal as Typhoon Closes on China (BBG)
• Indian submarine explodes in Mumbai port (FT)
• BofA Banker Sued by Regulator Later Joined Fannie Mae (BBG)
• Software that hijacks visits to YouTube uncovered (FT)
• Chinese Billionaire Huang Readies Iceland Bid on Power Shift (BBG)
• China to launch fresh pharmaceutical bribery probe (Reuters)
• Defeat at J.C. Penney Hurts Ackman as Performance Trails (BBG)

Whether or not BitCoin actually wants to be regarded as an accepted currency, and thus subject to US government regulation, remains to be seen. However, one thing is certain: a currency is not a currency, until it gets its own Bloomberg ticker. Just recall the confusion that followed the appearance of XGD, or the GREEK DRACHMA (POST EURO), BBG currency ticker in June 2012 caused a panic tsunami across Europe when everyone started asking what does Bloomberg know that nobody else does.

Enter XBT Curncy <GO>