Bitcoin

The Kreuzberg area of Berlin has the highest density of businesses accepting Bitcoin in the world. The clip below is fascinating as it becomes readily apparent how excited both the merchants and the customers are about using this free market currency.  As the owner of a bar called Room 77, Joerg Platzer, quite interestingly commented: “Every day we do not start using a free currency like Bitcoin, we actually actively vote for the current system to continue.”

The crypto-currency Bitcoin is still merely a speck on the global monetary landscape. It is young, experimental, and for all we know, it may ultimately fail to break into the monetary mainstream. However, on a conceptual level some are willing to call it a work of genius and arguably the most exciting development in the field of money for more than 130 years. The outcome is probably binary: Either Bitcoin ultimately fails and the individual Bitcoins end up worthless. Or Bitcoin takes off and Bitcoins are worth hundreds of thousands of paper dollars, paper yen, paper euros, or paper pounds. Maybe more. Those who buy Bitcoin as a speculative investment should consider it an option on the future success of the crypto-currency. We still consider gold to be the essential self-defense asset in the ongoing paper money crisis. The brand-new crypto-currency Bitcoin has to first earn its stripes as a monetary asset by proving itself as a ‘common’ medium of exchange. That is why we view Bitcoin very differently from gold, although the attraction of both has its origin in the demise of entirely elastic, politicized state fiat money. In the meantime, the debasement of paper money continues.

"You will not see economic growth until you liquidate the debt and liquidate the malinvestment out there," is the hard truth that former Congressman Ron Paul lays on Bloomberg TV in this wide-ranging interview. Paul is concerned at "the erraticness of the dollar... and its devaluation," explaining that, "people think the gold price up and down is a reflection of something wrong with gold; no, I say it is something wrong with the dollar." The topic gravitates to inflation, which Paul explains is far from missing as, "Bond prices go up. Stocks are going up. Housing prices are starting to go back up again. Education costs are going up," adding that, "CPI is not reliable." Paul is buying gold, believes "we are in as much trouble as Greece," and while fascinated by the free market nature of Bitcoin, he notes that while he doesn't fully understand it, "if I can't put it in my pocket, I have some reservations about that."

This is the beginning of War and those on the losing side don't even realize they're in battle. Remember, Merkel has already declared the EU to give up sovereign authority for the greater good, the United Germanic Republic of Europe! This is how she will do it.

After a disastrous few days in early April, bitcoin is back over $100 and up on the month, the year and its short lifetime.  ConvergEx's Nick Colas is intrigued and continues to believe that this phenomenon is the most provocative economic experiment since the invention of the euro and well worth watching.  The next chapter of the story, he believes, will be the entry of a host of "Smart money" venture capitalists looking to build the currency's infrastructure.  Money and currency are exactly the kind of large, scalable and complex opportunity that gets VCs very, very excited.  Yes, it could all still end in tears, either by regulation or mismanagement.  But bitcoin isn’t dead just yet, and it remains one of the most potentially disruptive forces in modern finance. In summary, bitcoin is what he calls a "Beta currency." How it all shakes out, however, will be both instructive to watch and potentially profitable for those on the right side of this very novel trade.

Here is Part 2 of my article “The Argument of Bitcoins v. Gold Laid to Rest, originally released at my blog, www.theundergroundinvestor.com on April 9, 2013. Yes, money that is real and tangible is really better than money that is just a digital valuation backed by air.

There were many casualties following Friday's 4% gold rout, but none were hurt more than one-time hedge fund idol John Paulson, who according to estimates, lost more than $300 million of his own money in one day. Per Bloomberg: "Paulson has roughly $9.5 billion invested across his hedge funds, of which about 85 percent is invested in gold share classes. Gold dropped 4.1 percent today, shaving about $328 million from his net worth on this bet alone." This is merely the latest insult to what has otherwise been a 3 year-long injury for Paulson and his few remaining investors, whose very inappropriately named Advantage Plus is among the bottom 10 hedge funds for the third year in a row. Yet despite being a one-hit wonder thanks to one lucrative idea (long ABX CDS) generated by one of his former employees (Pelegrini), Paulson still has been lucky enough to somehow amass a $10 billion personal fortune which can have a $300 million downswing in one day, even if it is in an asset class which eventually will go only one way - up. Unless, of course, like so many other fly by night billionaires, Paulson too hasn't somehow managed to lever up all his equity into numerous other downstream ventures, and where a $300 million blow up leads to margin calls and other terminal liquidity outcomes.

The stock market is not crashing yet, but there are lots of other market crashes happening in the financial world right now.  Just like we saw back in 2008, it is taking stocks a little bit of extra time to catch up with economic reality.  But almost everywhere else you look, there are signs that a financial avalanche has begun.

Gold prices just entered a bear market. Down 21% from their mid-2011 highs. Today's drop is the largest since 2/29/12 - LTRO2 and takes the price of the barbarous relic back to July 2011 lows. Silver is also seeing its biggest down-day since LTRO2 as it tests 2012 lows. Must. Destroy. All alternative currencies.

Think the 75% plunge in BitCoin values in two days has crushed all former supporters of the virtual currency (which truth be told is only back to levels from a month ago)? Wrong. As the NYT reports, a very unexpected supporting genepool (split into two identical halves) has emerged in the shape of two names previously linked to yet another pre-bubble frenzy name, FaceBook: Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss (collectively, the "Winklevii"). Following stints as Olympic rowers, Simpsons characters, and antagonistic Facebook litigants, the two 31 year-old identical twins are now indirect investors in the latest "currency" craze, whose heyday may well have come and gone, courtesy of owning a whopping 1% stake in all of the entire outstanding supply of BitCoin which at last count was worth $1.3 billion (if maybe a little less now).

For the second day in a row, VIX has gone nowhere as stocks pushed on to new highs. PC-related names were hammered on the dismal shipments data and Transports also suffered once again. The S&P made new all-time highs but with the JPY unable to break 100 (yet), ES lost its partner-in-crime and faded back to VWAP into the close. While the major indices closed green (once again) and in spite of less demand than expected at the 30Y auction today, Treasuries were absolutely not being rotated away from. 10Y was -1bps at around 1.79%. Stocks topped out at the European close (POMO end) which also coincided with the low of the day in the USD. Commodities mirrored the USD today with gold, silver, and copper all rolling back towards unch on the day as EUR and JPY weakened. WTI was the worst performer -1.25% testing down to $93 intraday. Bitcoin was falling early before MtGox decided a 12-hour halt was necessary - we only hope this 'temporary' halt is not as temporary as Cyprus capital controls.

Several months ago we pointed out something not fully grasped by the broader public: the Chinese corporate debt bubble is the largest of any developed and developing country, and at 151% of GDP (and rising rapidly) is the biggest in the world. What is better known is that corporate debt is just one part of the total debt picture, which also includes consumer loans, government debt and other "shadow debt" credit in the case of China. So how does China's true debt picture as a percentage of debt look? As the chart below from Goldman shows, in 2013 the total credit outstanding in China is expected to rise to a whopping 240% of GDP, and continue rising from there at an ever faster pace.

Disparities, bailouts, and a slow-motion blowup.