Black Swan

These Are Barclays' 13 Commodity "Black Swan Threats" For 2017

Beware the commodity "black swans" in 2017, at least according to Barclays. The British bank warns that raw materials markets from oil to metals face the a high likelihood of disruptions, which among, other include a default by Venezuela, riots in Chile, a trade war with China, more terrorism in Turkey, and even a Fukushima-type disaster in China.

Nassim Taleb Explains "How To Go Bankrupt & Be Loved By The Many"

"The detractors of Donald Trump failed to realize that, by advertising his episode of bankruptcy and his personal losses of close to a billion dollars, they removed the resentment one may have towards him. There is something respectable in losing a billion dollars, provided it is your own money... your 'skin in the game'."

Where Are The 'Black Swans' Hiding?

While being capable of imagining a 'black swan' event implies its non-existence; given the level of groupthink consensus agreement that the bond bull is dead, inflation is back, central banks are maxed out, and global fiscal stimulus will save the world, we thought a look at some of the more unsusual, unpredictable expectations for 2017 was worthwhile...

Brandon Smith Warns The System Is Crashing: "Prepare For Bank Confiscations, Shortages, Insurgency"

"Whatever’s going to happen is going to happen between now and early 2018, because that’s their window of time to create enough chaos and desperation in order to convince people, to rationalize the idea of switching to a global currency system. After that, I would expect there would be a process of acclimating the public to this new system, and I would expect that a lot of countries would be in third world conditions for a while after that."

Head For The Bunkers?

"...unpredictability is the order of the day, and a collective “me first” outlook has taken hold, we should prepare for the possibility that turmoil could go global. In other words, while it is not time to head for the bunkers, it certainly wouldn’t hurt to have one nearby."

Trader Exclaims "Markets Are In An Alternate Universe"

"This has been a momentum-driven market rather than one driven by well-reasoned fundamental analysis... It’s amazing what pseudo-intellectual havoc can be caused by a couple hundred points bounce in the markets..."

Wall Street Analysts Are Slowly Losing It

"I can’t justify any of this. The lesson investors are getting is that everything is a buying opportunity and you need to not miss the boat. Brexit? Bullish. Trump winning the election? Bullish. Italy saying no to the referendum and the Prime Minister handing in his resignation? Bullish. Heck, all we need is the entire Belgian banking system to go kablooey and the S&P 500 will be at 3,000 by Christmas Eve."

Turkeys Were Optimistic On Wednesday – Unicorns May Have Less Than A Week

All the time prior the turkey believes life is grand and will continue forever, and the farmer has nothing but his best interest at heart, caring for him with plenty of food, water, and shelter. To convince him otherwise is a fools-errand. Then – Thursday happens. A similar event may also be on the horizon, but this time – it doesn’t involve turkeys. No, this time it involves a creature once considered so far above and beyond reproach, to even question its business model, metrics, or valuation was seen as blasphemy.

drhousingbubble's picture

With a new administration coming into office in 2017, it might be useful to examine what potential policies will be enacted that may have an impact on housing.  The market responded to the election results as if it were a Black Swan event.  Most of the comments preceding the election almost assumed it was a foregone conclusion that Hillary Clinton was going to be the next President.  Clearly that was not the case.  The bond markets had an immediate sizable reaction.  We still don’t have the full details on how things will change but there are some changes planned that may have an impact on housing.  It is hard to see how rental Armageddon changes because of this.  

The Serfs Have Rebelled - Europe Next?

Hayek’s The Road to Serfdom described how personal freedoms are progressively eroded by the state in the name of the common good. In the main, the serfs are patient and tolerant of their masters, but in a democracy, the establishment behind the state risks being challenged. And that has happened twice this year, first with Brexit and now with Trump in America... but remember the serfs never win, as Hayek recognised.

French PM: "Europe Is In Danger Of Falling Apart"

"Europe is in danger of falling apart," French prime minister Manuel Valls said at an event organized by the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper. "So Germany and France have a huge responsibility."