Black Swan

"Visions Of Cataclysms": Why Eric Peters Is Starting A Long-Vol Fund

"Rising volatility begets rising volatility. And given the unprecedented volatility-selling in this cycle, I can imagine a historic reversal. And at that point, investor imaginations will run rampant with visions of cataclysms. It is always thus, it is who we are. Confidence in a tomorrow that is indistinguishable from today will vanish, replaced by some new hysteria."

When A "Black Swan" Will No Longer Do: China Warns Beware The "Gray Rhino"

In surprisingly stark commentary, China issued a warning that the economy finds itself in a backdrop of growing enterprise debt, an overheating real estate market, and overcapacity in such sectors as low-end manufacturing, and cautioned investors that a "gray rhino" may be coming.

The Major Wildcard That Could Send Oil To $120

The oil market is rather depressed and subdued at the moment, but could awaken at moment’s notice if large volumes of oil production are disrupted from some unforeseen event.

Abe "Plunges Into Crisis" After LDP Suffers "Historic Defeat" In Tokyo Elections, USDJPY Slides

On Sunday Japanese PM Shinzo Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party suffered what Reuters called a "historic defeat" in the Tokyo assembly election, and "plunged into a crisis" after losing to an upstart outfit in an vote that is seen as a harbinger for Japan's national elections, and signaling trouble ahead for the premier who has suffered from slumping support after a series of political scandals.

One Trader Warns Yellen's Delusional Statement Means "We're In A Lot Of Trouble"

"If you really want to pour cold water on all this optimism, consider the dangerousness of the thought that because of all the great things that have been done, it’s unlikely there will be another global financial crisis in our lifetime. If this is a view that is circulating behind the closed doors of central bank meetings and forums, we’re in a lot of trouble."

Stockman: Orange Is The New Black (Swan)

"Black swans are supposedly unexpected, stealthy and come of a sudden. But not this one — it is bright orange, and in your face day and night... I refer to the Donald, of course, and the fact that he is truly the Great Disrupter."

China's "Bubble Prophet" Sees Unprecedented Surge In Home Prices

"We’re living through a bubble. We’re kicking the can down the road by buying time not to keep things in check, but to blow the bubble into an even bigger one. What’s happened over the past two years has made any new reforms even more difficult to roll out."

Here Are The Seven "Black Swans" SocGen Believes Could Shock Global Markets

"policy is the main potential source of both upside and downside risk, be it with respect to fiscal expansion, trade policies, wage outcomes, euro area reform or monetary policy. As China tightens policy, what happens next in the US has become critical, we look for modest US tax cuts but believe that, Trumpflation insufficient to offset fading Xiflation." - SocGen