• Marc To Market
    08/29/2015 - 10:18
    Dollar recovered from the exaggerated panic at the start of last week.  Outlook is still constructive.  Here is an overview of the technical condition of currencies, bonds, oil , and S&...

Black Swan

Tyler Durden's picture

Nassim Taleb's Fund Made $1 Billion On Monday; This Is How The Other "Hedge" Funds Did





You can't say Nassim Taleb didn't warn you: the outspoken academic-philosopher, best known for his prediction that six sigma "fat tail", or black swan, events happen much more frequently than they should statistically (perhaps a main reason why there is no longer a market but a centrally-planned cesspool of academic intervention) just had a black swan land smack in the middle of the Universa hedge fund founded by ardent Ron Paul supporter Mark Spitznagel, and affiliated with Nassim Taleb. The result: a $1 billion payday, translating into a 20% YTD return, in a week when the VIX exploded from the teens to over 50, and which most other hedge funds would love to forget.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Angry Chinese Investors Capture Head Of Metals Exchange In Predawn Hotel Raid





"The head of a Chinese exchange that trades minor metals was captured by angry investors in a dawn raid and turned over to Shanghai police, as the investors attempted to force the authorities to investigate why their funds have been frozen."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Another Black Swan? Syriza Outcasts Form New Political Party, Will Push For Grexit





Members of Syriza's Left Coalition, led by Panagiotis Lafazanis who once plotted to storm the Greek mint, seize the country’s reserves, and arrest central bank governor Yannis Stournaras, have broken away and formed their own political party which they say will support Grexit and stand firm in the face of German "blackmail."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The 8 Trillion Black Swan: Is China's Shadow Banking System About To Collapse?





Between micromanaging the economy, equities, the yuan, and public opinion, there's no question that China has its hands full these days. But with everyone's attention now focused sqaurely on Beijing's plunge protection team and the PBoC's "controlled" yuan devaluation, the market may be ignoring the biggest risk of all...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Calm Before The Storm?" Dow's 2015 Range Crashes To Lowest Ever





The Dow's volatility is dead... long live The Dow's volatility.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

One Trader Warns "Market Realities Were Starkly Exposed This Week"





Certain market realities were starkly exposed this week as a result of the China currency moves, Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow writes. As Keynes is supposed to have said, “When the facts change, I change my opinion. What do you do, Sir?” Yet markets have been lulled into relying on the belief that this is no longer the case, and even if it is, any change will be stage managed for the comfort of institutional money managers. Gone are the days when you had to guess at the Fed’s policy by interpreting weekly money-market operations. But that can’t be done in any practical sense.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Austrian Bad Bank "Black Swan" Bail-In Is Unconstitutional, Austria Declares





In a key ruling that may have implications far beyond Austria's borders, the country's constitutional court has struck down a bail-in that would have imposed losses totaling some €800 million on junior Heta bondholders.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Fat Tails & The Invisible Vulnerability Of Markets





"...rising asset prices provide investors confirming evidence that their strategy is good and everything is fine. This induction problem lulls investors into a sense of confidence, and sets the stage for the shock when events turn down. That nonlinearity causes sudden change only adds to the confusion."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Greatest Collapse In The History Of The VIX Index





The ongoing decline in the VIX starting last week (and still going) is the largest supernormal volatility collapse in VIX history. Over the past 2 years, we have been experiencing a quantifiable ‘outlier’ or ‘black swan’ decline in the VIX every 6 months as evaluated against history. We can only point to government intervention as the core reason. We firmly believe that this moral hazard produces a hidden leverage and “shadow market gamma” that at some point will result in a sustained volatility outlier event in the opposite direction.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How Likely Is Hyperinflation In The U.S?





Hyperinflation in the U.S. is coming sometime in the next 20 years or so, and this isn't a cry from a Chicken Little, but a conclusion that the analysis strongly suggests. It is possible hyperinflation could happen during the next few years, but that seems unlikely since it would require a series of major crises and political blunders – events unprecedented in the history of the United States. If this led to a corruption of Constitutional rights in the midst of an exaltation of the Executive Branch that resulted in loss of the rule of law, hyperinflation might result. It is much more probable that hyperinflation will be preceded by a long slow decline that will include a protracted period of high inflation, and that the crash of the dollar and hyperinflation will be the final tumble off a looming, steep cliff.

 
GoldCore's picture

'Black Swan' Taleb Warns “Calm Before The Storm”





Western countries are increasingly displaying symptoms of instability as described by Nassim Taleb, the author of the The Black Swan, ever since the publication of an essay written with Gregory Treverton entitled “The Calm Before the Storm.” The wider public and the press seem unjustifiably complacent at this time. It seems likely that the seemingly unending “recovery” is simply the calm before the storm.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How A "Eurozone Breakdown" Became A True Black Swan Event





Last month the fund managers responding to BofA' fund manager survey said that a "Eurozone breakdown" was was the third biggest "tail risk" to global markets. What is much more notable is that just one month earelier, in May, not a single respondent even mentioned this as a risk.  Fast forward to July when "Eurozone breakdown" is suddenly perceived as the biggest tail risk by all those surveyed.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Bank Of England May Accept Stocks As Collateral





"The Bank has started work to ensure there are no technical obstacles to our ability to accept equities as collateral should the need arise."

 
Capitalist Exploits's picture

NYSE "Glitch"... Really?





Does the next major conflict start with a computer glitch?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

When The Going Gets Tough, The Feds Take Your Money





The time of deflationary confiscation is coming closer for the remaining Greek bank depositors. Those who kept their cash in safe deposit boxes at banks are out of luck too: the government has decreed they may not take it out. This is something one needs to keep in mind – if one wants to keep cash outside the banking system, one cannot leave it in a bank safe deposit box either. The government will confiscate it when push comes to shove and the banks need to be rescued.

 
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