• BullionStar
    05/30/2016 - 21:24
    The US Gold Market is best known as the home of gold futures trading on the COMEX in New York. The COMEX has a literal monopoly on gold futures trading volumes worldwide, but very little physical...

Black Swan

Tyler Durden's picture

Why The Next Black Swan Will Turn Into A Flock





People “are just rolling the dice, thinking nothing could be as bad as 2008.” They think (or believe) if it happens again all they’ll have to do is the same as they did last time e.g. Hunker down, wait for the storm to blow over. Rinse, repeat. This is where the real issue lies for not only the Fed per se, but rather, the entire political as it is currently known. For if a “black swan” does indeed hit once again in the very near future? Once people realize just how systematically they’ve been cut off from those “assumed” resources, especially during a crisis?  All hell is going to break loose in ways the academic class, as well as, the political never envisioned. For when the time comes (and there is no more important “time” than that during a crisis of confidence) where words truly matter, and everyone no longer believes? Everything changes. And I do mean: everything.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Greed & Fear Are Great Teachers" Black Swan Author Tells Graduates "Always Have Skin In The Game"





"Greed and fear are teachers... Do not read the newspapers, or follow the news in any way or form...It doesn’t mean ignore the news; it means that you go from the events to the news, not the other way around... If something is nonsense, you say it and say it loud...One should never do anything without skin in the game."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Saudi Officials Crackdown On FX Market As Currency Peg Starts To Strain





As we warned previously, the devaluation, or breaking of the Saudi Riyal peg to the dollar, could be the black swan event for crude oil and the recent weakness in SAR forwards - while not as violent as Nigeria's Naira - certainly signals a renewed market fear that breaking the peg is imminent. It appears Saudi officials are none too pleased with the free markets speculating on this devaluation and as Bloomberg reports, banks in Saudi Arabia are coming under fresh pressure over products that allow speculators to bet against the kingdom’s currency peg, according to people with knowledge of the matter, which were supposedly banned in January.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Nigeria Currency Devaluation Looms As FX Forwards Crash To Record Lows





Despite US equity investors' exuberance over bouncing crude oil prices, the world's crude producers continue to suffer and while Venezuela is in the headlines every day (having already collapsed into chaos), Nigeria appears the nearest to that abyss next. Having urged investors "don't panic" last year, and seeing dollar reserves drying up rapidly earlier this year, recent "lies" about the nation's statistics have raised fears of a looming devaluation as FX forwards have crashed to 291 Naira to the dollar (current peg is 199).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

'Father Of Modern Finance' Warns "Central Banking Is Like Pornography - Not The Real Thing"





"Everyday we read headlines on what the central banks are doing. But their policies don’t have any effect. They are just like treading water. All the central banks are doing is substituting one form of debt with another form of debt... I think it means the business of central banks is like pornography: It’s not the real thing."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

How A Collapse In South America Could Trigger Martial Law In The U.S.





If an economic system collapses in the woods and no one is paying attention, are there any consequences outside the woods? Well, yes, of course. As with most situations financial and global, however, consequences are not usually taken very seriously until they have spawned a vast bog of sewage we all have to then swim through. The issue is and always will be “interdependency,” and the dissolution of sovereign borders. The European Union dynamic, for example, can only end in one of two ways - the complete dismantling of the supranational body and a return to sovereignty, or, a socio-economic crisis followed by even more centralization and the end of all remnants of sovereignty. Either way, the consequences will not be pretty. The same strategy may also be used in the Western hemisphere; more specifically, the collapse in South America that almost no one in the mainstream seems to be paying much attention to.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why China Is Really Dictating The Oil Supply Glut





Similar to Saudi Arabia, which is a swing producer, China is acting like a swing consumer. However, as China doesn’t report its storage data, it is difficult to estimate how long this trend will continue. Though other factors were involved in encouraging the bulls to buy at lower levels, the increased demand from China also helped in lapping up the excess production. If their imports drop, the world will return to the supply glut and oil prices will retrace back to the lower $30s per barrel.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"A 2015-like Market Crash In Chinese Commodities Is Inevitable"





Is Everyone Wrong On The "Causation" Of The Commodity Bubble? While it appeared 'retail' was responsible for the panic-buying chaotic volume surge in Chinese commodities, Axiom Capital Management's Gordon L Johnson points out that in fact... China Bank Special Interest Vehicles' "Bold" Commodity Speculation Is The Real Budding Black Swan

 
Tyler Durden's picture

One More Casualty Of The 9/11 Farce - The Petrodollar





It’s been about 15 years now since passenger airliners struck the World Trade Center towers on 9/11, and we are still suffering the consequences of that day, though perhaps not in the ways many Americans might believe. The 9/11 attacks were billed by the Bush Administration as a “wake-up call” for the U.S., and neocons called it the new Pearl Harbor. But instead of it being an awaking, the American public was led further into blind ignorance. Clearly, after 15 years of disastrous policy, it is time to admit that the U.S. response to 9/11 has damaged us far more than the actual attacks ever could.

 
SRSrocco's picture

Continued Financial Market Deterioration Impacts Gold Eagle Sales In A Big Way





The financial system is sitting on the edge of a cliff and an increasing number of investors are beginning to realize it.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

One Trader Finally Loses It





"A portfolio built to only withstand stress thanks to central bank intervention is one destined to blow-up spectacularly."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Austria Just Announced A 54% Haircut Of Senior Creditors In First "Bail In" Under New European Rules





Following a decision by the Austrian Banking Regulator, the Finanzmarktaufsicht or Financial Market Authority, Austria officially became the first European country to use a new law under the framework imposed by Bank the European Recovery and Resolution Directive to share losses of a failed bank with senior creditors as it slashed the value of debt owed by Heta Asset Resolution AG.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

China Warns Officials: Allow Social Unrest, Lose Your Job





Following protests by disaffected coal miners in the "gritty" streets of Shuangyashan, Beijing is out with a stark warning for Party officials: suppress demonstrations and social unrest, or lose your job. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Nassim Taleb: "I Prefer Sanders To Trump But Absolutely No Hillary"





It seems for Nassim "Black Swan" Taleb, less is more. After perfectly summarizing the circus that is the American Presidential election camapaign in 17 words last week, he appears to have gone one step further with a two-word summation: "No SHillary."

 
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