Black Swan
When 3 Trillion Just Isn't Enough: Analysts Fret Over "Worrying" China Reserve Burn
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/08/2016 15:01 -0500"The burn rate has been worrying. It’s not about how long it gets to zero, its about how long it gets to about 2, which is what they need."
As The Saudi Economy Implodes, A Fascinating Solution Emerges: The Aramco IPO
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/07/2016 15:17 -0500
Earlier today everything changed when Saudi Arabia's unveiled what may be a stunning Hail Mary: one which is great news for the suddenly liquidity challenged Saudi government, and is very bad news for the future price of oil. According to the Economist, Saudi Arabia is contemplating taking Saudi Aramco - arguably the world's most valuable company - public. Here are the implications.
hedgeless_horseman's Revolutionary Call to Arms
Submitted by hedgeless_horseman on 01/06/2016 12:27 -0500Many of us are wishing to be bold, and maybe even revolutionary. But we are far too comfortable, and also too afraid.
Saudi Default, Devaluation Odds Spike As Mid-East Careens Into Chaos
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 11:31 -0500On the heels of a tumultuous weekend that saw Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Iran after the Saudi embassy was torched by protesters angry at the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric, CDS spreads for the kingdom have blown out to six-year wides while the implied odds of the riyal peg finally breaking are hitting new record highs.
Mid-East Melee: Sectarian Showdown Looms As Bahrain Cuts Ties With Iran, UAE Recalls Ambassador
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/04/2016 08:16 -0500What began with the execution of a prominent Shiite cleric in Saudi Arabia has devolved into a full blown sectarian showdown with Bahrain cutting diplomatic ties with Iran, the UAE recalling its ambassador, Sudan expelling the Iranian mission, and Iraqi Shiites attacking Sunni mosques. In short: tinder box meet spark.
Nassim "Black Swan" Taleb On The Real Financial Risks Of 2016
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/03/2016 21:00 -0500Though "another Lehman Brothers" isn't likely to happen with banks, it is very likely to happen with commodity firms and countries that depend directly or indirectly on commodity prices.
Something Just Snapped In Saudi Arabia
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/29/2015 01:53 -0500Following yesterday's budget (deficit) and the 'sacrifice-the-people's-comfort-for-the-death-of-US-Shale' plan that we detailed here, it appears market concerns about Saudi Arabia's forward-looking health are rising. As Bloomberg reports, USDSAR 12-month forwards jumped 250pts (the most since December 2007) to 725bps (the highest level since March 1999) implying expectations of a looming de-pegged, devaluation. Perhaps just as worrying is this is the same pattern that played out in August as Yuan weakness sparked HIBOR stress, leading to SAR forward weakness and then US equity market collapse.
Saudis Boost Gas Prices by 40%, Dismantle Welfare State To Wage War With U.S. Shale
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/28/2015 14:02 -0500In a bid to shore up its finances in the face of self-inflicted oil wounds, Saudi Arabia is shaking up the welfare state by raising prices on everything from domestic fuel to water. Apparently, persisting in the war of attrition against the US shale complex is paramount - even if it means making life harder for everyday Saudis so the monarchy can buy itself some budget breathing room.
Chinese Executive Who Was Once Kidnapped By Angry Investors Disappears
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/22/2015 19:40 -0500Back in August, angry investors captured Shan Jiuliang, the head of Fanya Metals Exchange, in a daring predawn raid on a luxury hotel in Shanghai. The citizen's arrest came after Fanya stopped making payments on WMPs it issued. Now, it appears as though Shan has been captured again - only this time, it's not clear whether he'll be coming back.
2015 Year In Review - Scenic Vistas From Mount Stupid
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/19/2015 20:35 -0500- Alan Greenspan
- Albert Edwards
- Ally Bank
- Apple
- Baltic Dry
- Bank of America
- Bank of America
- Bank of England
- Bank of International Settlements
- Bank of Japan
- Barry Ritholtz
- Bear Market
- Ben Bernanke
- Ben Bernanke
- Bill Gross
- Black Friday
- Black Swan
- Bob Janjuah
- Bond
- Book Value
- Brazil
- Bridgewater
- Capital Expenditures
- Carlyle
- Cato Institute
- Central Banks
- Chicago PMI
- China
- Chris Martenson
- Chrysler
- Citadel
- Cliff Asness
- Counterparties
- CRAP
- Credit Conditions
- Creditors
- Crude
- David Einhorn
- David Rosenberg
- default
- Demographics
- Department of Justice
- Deutsche Bank
- Dumb Money
- Equity Markets
- ETC
- European Central Bank
- Eurozone
- Federal Reserve
- FINRA
- fixed
- France
- Futures market
- GE Capital
- Germany
- Glencore
- Global Economy
- Global Warming
- Gluskin Sheff
- Greece
- Gundlach
- Hayman Capital
- Holiday Cheer
- Hyperinflation
- Illinois
- India
- Iran
- Iraq
- Israel
- Italy
- Janet Yellen
- Japan
- Jeff Gundlach
- Jeremy Grantham
- Jim Cramer
- Jim Reid
- Jim Rickards
- Joe Saluzzi
- John Hussman
- John Maynard Keynes
- Kazakhstan
- Ken Griffin
- KIM
- KKR
- Kyle Bass
- Kyle Bass
- Larry Summers
- LBO
- Lehman
- Mark Spitznagel
- Market Manipulation
- Maynard Keynes
- McKinsey
- Mervyn King
- Mexico
- MF Global
- Michigan
- Middle East
- Milton Friedman
- Monetary Policy
- Money Velocity
- Morgan Stanley
- Natural Gas
- New York Fed
- New York Stock Exchange
- Nikkei
- None
- Norway
- Paul McCulley
- Paul Tudor Jones
- Paul Volcker
- Precious Metals
- Quantitative Easing
- Rahm Emanuel
- Random Walk
- Ray Dalio
- Real estate
- Recession
- recovery
- Rick Santelli
- Robert Shiller
- Rosenberg
- Sovereign Debt
- Sovereigns
- St Louis Fed
- St. Louis Fed
- State Street
- Stephen Roach
- SWIFT
- Swiss National Bank
- Switzerland
- Themis Trading
- Transparency
- Treasury Department
- Unemployment
- University of California
- University Of Michigan
- Value Investing
- Wall Street Journal
- Warren Buffett
- Wholesale Inventories
- Willem Buiter
- Yield Curve
“To the intelligent man or woman, life appears infinitely mysterious, but the stupid have an answer for everything.” ~Edward Abbey
Presenting Saxo Bank's 10 "Outrageous Predictions" For 2016
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/16/2015 17:40 -0500- Australia
- B+
- Black Swan
- Bond
- Brazil
- Bridgewater
- Capital Markets
- China
- Consumer Confidence
- Copper
- Corporate Leverage
- Crude
- Crude Oil
- Donald Trump
- European Central Bank
- Federal Reserve
- Futures market
- Glencore
- High Yield
- India
- Investment Grade
- Iran
- Janet Yellen
- Lehman
- Meltdown
- Monetary Policy
- Nomination
- OPEC
- Ray Dalio
- Reality
- Recession
- recovery
- Risk Premium
- Saxo Bank
- Ukraine
- Unemployment
- Volatility
"The irony in this year’s batch of outrageous predictions is that some of them are “outrageous” merely because they run counter to overwhelming market consensus. In fact, many would not look particularly outrageous at all in more “normal” times – if there even is such a thing!"
A Pessimists' Guide To 2016: When Everything That Can Go Wrong, Does Go Wrong
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/15/2015 18:30 -0500
"2015 Was Like Commuting By Rollercoaster" - Art Cashin Reviews The 2015 Market And Shares His 2016 Outlook
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/10/2015 13:27 -0500"2015 was like commuting by rollercoaster. There were heart-stopping drops, there were nearly vertical ascents, and when it was all over you got off just about where you started and it cost you money."
The Global Economic Reset Has Begun
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/09/2015 22:35 -0500- Alan Greenspan
- Ben Bernanke
- Ben Bernanke
- BIS
- Black Friday
- Black Swan
- Bond
- BRICs
- Central Banks
- Chain Store Sales
- China
- Credit Crisis
- Fail
- Federal Reserve
- General Motors
- Golden Goose
- goldman sachs
- Goldman Sachs
- International Monetary Fund
- Janet Yellen
- Japan
- Main Street
- Market Share
- Quantitative Easing
- Reality
- recovery
- Reserve Currency
- Saudi Arabia
- The Economist
- Too Big To Fail
- Volatility
The U.S. is now experiencing the next stage of the great reset. Two pillars were put in place on top of an already existing pillar by the central banks in order to maintain a semblance of stability after the 2008 crash. This faux stability appears to have been necessary in order to allow time for the conditioning of the masses towards greater acceptance of globalist initiatives, to ensure the debt slavery of future generations through the taxation of government generated long term debts, and to allow for internationalists to safely position their own assets. The three pillars are now being systematically removed by the same central bankers. Why? They are simply ready to carry on with the next stage of the controlled demolition of the American structure as we know it.
This Is Not Your Father's Market
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 12/04/2015 09:52 -0500"We live in a dystopian investment world, whose markets have morphed into an Orwellian backdrop of omnipresent government intervention and manipulation that is increasingly dictated by the quant community -- who worship at the altar of prices and price momentum (and are agnostic on values)."



