Black Swans

Visualizing How Billionaire Investors Hedge Against Geopolitical Black Swans

"The world is approaching a major inflection point and the intense amount of global angst we’re experiencing now stems from deep, structural forces that have been building over decades... we are experiencing the perfect storm of '-isms': nationalism, nativism, protectionism, and isolationism."

Critical Threats To 2017's Bull Market - Part 1: Macro View

While the idea that anything could go wrong in global stock markets (especially US markets) is simply incomprehensible to most, here are a few of the more prescient 'known unknowns' that could hamper the meltup for the rest of the year...

Could Market Complexity Trigger The Next Crash?

Just like in an avalanche, where various factors at the top of a mountain (accumulating volumes of snow, weather, temperature, geology, gravity, etc.) make up a complex system that is difficult to predict, markets are similarly complex... and prone to instantaneous collapse.

Norway’s Big Fish Story

The greatest consequences of Nordic socialism are how it instills a lack of courage and imagination when facing global problems. For such a system to work, people must be mostly compliant and amicable. Currently, Norway can manage the economic shift by drawing from The Fund but I would hope that they want to do more than just get by. It is obvious that betting on fish is a bad idea.

"Visions Of Cataclysms": Why Eric Peters Is Starting A Long-Vol Fund

"Rising volatility begets rising volatility. And given the unprecedented volatility-selling in this cycle, I can imagine a historic reversal. And at that point, investor imaginations will run rampant with visions of cataclysms. It is always thus, it is who we are. Confidence in a tomorrow that is indistinguishable from today will vanish, replaced by some new hysteria."

What Trump's Venezuela Sanctions Will Do To Oil Prices: Barclays Explains

"A sharper and longer disruption could raise oil prices at least $5-7/b and flatten the curve structure despite an assumed return of some OPEC supply, a more robust US shale response, and weaker demand. It may be just the opportunity OPEC needs to exit its current strategy." - Barclays