Black Swans

Could Market Complexity Trigger The Next Crash?

Just like in an avalanche, where various factors at the top of a mountain (accumulating volumes of snow, weather, temperature, geology, gravity, etc.) make up a complex system that is difficult to predict, markets are similarly complex... and prone to instantaneous collapse.

Norway’s Big Fish Story

The greatest consequences of Nordic socialism are how it instills a lack of courage and imagination when facing global problems. For such a system to work, people must be mostly compliant and amicable. Currently, Norway can manage the economic shift by drawing from The Fund but I would hope that they want to do more than just get by. It is obvious that betting on fish is a bad idea.

"Visions Of Cataclysms": Why Eric Peters Is Starting A Long-Vol Fund

"Rising volatility begets rising volatility. And given the unprecedented volatility-selling in this cycle, I can imagine a historic reversal. And at that point, investor imaginations will run rampant with visions of cataclysms. It is always thus, it is who we are. Confidence in a tomorrow that is indistinguishable from today will vanish, replaced by some new hysteria."

What Trump's Venezuela Sanctions Will Do To Oil Prices: Barclays Explains

"A sharper and longer disruption could raise oil prices at least $5-7/b and flatten the curve structure despite an assumed return of some OPEC supply, a more robust US shale response, and weaker demand. It may be just the opportunity OPEC needs to exit its current strategy." - Barclays

Sornette's Supercomputer Is Betting On A Market Crash

“One can observe the continuation of a trend in the growth of positive bubbles in the fixed income asset class for the second month. The fraction of stocks diagnosed in a positive bubble state increased this month to exceed 36% compared with 32% last month. Mixed bubble signals still occur only in few commodity indices. We also observe renewed bubble activity in currency pairs.”

Stockman: Orange Is The New Black (Swan)

"Black swans are supposedly unexpected, stealthy and come of a sudden. But not this one — it is bright orange, and in your face day and night... I refer to the Donald, of course, and the fact that he is truly the Great Disrupter."