Black Swans

"The Fed Is Holding A Hand Grenade In The USA Bunker"

"Troubles and portents of more trouble are stacking up as we approach the Ides of March zone of financial turmoil. You must surely surmise that a debt ceiling impact, a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, and the election of a Dutch anti-EU leader all scheduled for that one day are a good start on the greater unravel to follow."

The Norwegian Economy In 2017: Black Swans Hovering Overhead

Norwegians are just now starting to grapple with the effects of their “single cylinder” economy, mostly dependent on oil and gas (ca. 60% of exports). Despite optimism about $50-$70/barrel oil, American crude output is surging, on track to be the highest ever, since 1970, while cracks start to form in OPEC’s latest agreement. In addition to the oil tailspin, a flock of “black swans” have taken flight, led by one with a very orange beak.

These Are Barclays' 13 Commodity "Black Swan Threats" For 2017

Beware the commodity "black swans" in 2017, at least according to Barclays. The British bank warns that raw materials markets from oil to metals face the a high likelihood of disruptions, which among, other include a default by Venezuela, riots in Chile, a trade war with China, more terrorism in Turkey, and even a Fukushima-type disaster in China.

Where Are The 'Black Swans' Hiding?

While being capable of imagining a 'black swan' event implies its non-existence; given the level of groupthink consensus agreement that the bond bull is dead, inflation is back, central banks are maxed out, and global fiscal stimulus will save the world, we thought a look at some of the more unsusual, unpredictable expectations for 2017 was worthwhile...

Citi: The FBI's Blockbuster Announcement "Could Have A Meaningful Impact On The Presidential Race"

"We have warned throughout the campaign that Black Swan risks are extraordinarily high, and hence have been less bullish for a Clinton victory than consensus. These developments do constitute an "October Surprise" that could have a meaningful impact on the race. We emphasize the potential for more Black Swan events emerging making things more complicated for forecasters and pollsters" - Citi

Electile Dysfunction: From Landslide To Loser

Despite the polls, the outcome is utterly unpredictable. This was true even before Hillary Clinton's recent health issue. The reality is that polling is incapable of accurately predicting the outcome of elections like this one, where so many voters are angry, resentful, emotional, negative, and frightened.