Black Swans

Citi: The FBI's Blockbuster Announcement "Could Have A Meaningful Impact On The Presidential Race"

"We have warned throughout the campaign that Black Swan risks are extraordinarily high, and hence have been less bullish for a Clinton victory than consensus. These developments do constitute an "October Surprise" that could have a meaningful impact on the race. We emphasize the potential for more Black Swan events emerging making things more complicated for forecasters and pollsters" - Citi

Electile Dysfunction: From Landslide To Loser

Despite the polls, the outcome is utterly unpredictable. This was true even before Hillary Clinton's recent health issue. The reality is that polling is incapable of accurately predicting the outcome of elections like this one, where so many voters are angry, resentful, emotional, negative, and frightened.

The Apotheosis Of Bubble Finance - Folly Of The FANGs, Part 1

"The trouble is, financial prices cannot be falsified indefinitely. At length, they become the subject of a pure confidence game and the risk of shocks and black swans that even the central banks are unable to off-set. Then the day of reckoning arrives in traumatic and violent aspect."

Citi Lays Out The "Black Swans" That Donald Trump Would Unleash If He Becomes President

With less than 90 days left until the presidential election, Citi's Dana Paterson writes that the "election risks clock starts now." Here is how Citi previews the upcoming US election which "may generate extremely high uncertainty that likely will impose a significant drag on economic growth", and Citi's breakdown of Black Swans, mostly associated with a Trump presidency.

Potential Crisis Triggers Continue To Pile Up In 2016

We are a little over half way through 2016 and, at the current rate, it will be a miracle if the year finishes without outright catastrophe in half the nations of the world. Some might call these events “Black Swans,” some might call them completely engineered threats, others might call it all a simple “coincidence” or a tragedy of errors. We stand strictly by the position that most of the dangers we see today have been deliberately escalated, if not strategically implemented. Chaos is NOT the end game, it is only a tool by which the elites gain psychological leverage over the masses so that people willingly give up their rights to self determination and hand more power to the establishment.

Here We Go Again - Stockman Warns Of August 2007 Redux

Nearly everywhere on the planet the giant financial bubbles created by the central banks during the last two decades are fracturing. The latest examples are the crashing bank stocks in Italy and elsewhere in Europe and the sudden trading suspensions by four UK commercial property funds. If this is beginning to sound like August 2007 that’s because it is. And the denials from the casino operators are coming in just as thick and fast.

Meanwhile, Traders Are Getting Angrier With Every Passing Day

"We’re condemned to serial bouts of severe volatility having been trained to dismiss real and knowable risks as just improbable black swans....  Central banks can’t keep giving markets everything they want, or the volatility in the end will be catastrophic"

One Trader Finally Loses It

"A portfolio built to only withstand stress thanks to central bank intervention is one destined to blow-up spectacularly."