Black Swans

The Norwegian Economy In 2017: Black Swans Hovering Overhead

Norwegians are just now starting to grapple with the effects of their “single cylinder” economy, mostly dependent on oil and gas (ca. 60% of exports). Despite optimism about $50-$70/barrel oil, American crude output is surging, on track to be the highest ever, since 1970, while cracks start to form in OPEC’s latest agreement. In addition to the oil tailspin, a flock of “black swans” have taken flight, led by one with a very orange beak.

These Are Barclays' 13 Commodity "Black Swan Threats" For 2017

Beware the commodity "black swans" in 2017, at least according to Barclays. The British bank warns that raw materials markets from oil to metals face the a high likelihood of disruptions, which among, other include a default by Venezuela, riots in Chile, a trade war with China, more terrorism in Turkey, and even a Fukushima-type disaster in China.

Where Are The 'Black Swans' Hiding?

While being capable of imagining a 'black swan' event implies its non-existence; given the level of groupthink consensus agreement that the bond bull is dead, inflation is back, central banks are maxed out, and global fiscal stimulus will save the world, we thought a look at some of the more unsusual, unpredictable expectations for 2017 was worthwhile...

Citi: The FBI's Blockbuster Announcement "Could Have A Meaningful Impact On The Presidential Race"

"We have warned throughout the campaign that Black Swan risks are extraordinarily high, and hence have been less bullish for a Clinton victory than consensus. These developments do constitute an "October Surprise" that could have a meaningful impact on the race. We emphasize the potential for more Black Swan events emerging making things more complicated for forecasters and pollsters" - Citi

Electile Dysfunction: From Landslide To Loser

Despite the polls, the outcome is utterly unpredictable. This was true even before Hillary Clinton's recent health issue. The reality is that polling is incapable of accurately predicting the outcome of elections like this one, where so many voters are angry, resentful, emotional, negative, and frightened.

The Apotheosis Of Bubble Finance - Folly Of The FANGs, Part 1

"The trouble is, financial prices cannot be falsified indefinitely. At length, they become the subject of a pure confidence game and the risk of shocks and black swans that even the central banks are unable to off-set. Then the day of reckoning arrives in traumatic and violent aspect."

Citi Lays Out The "Black Swans" That Donald Trump Would Unleash If He Becomes President

With less than 90 days left until the presidential election, Citi's Dana Paterson writes that the "election risks clock starts now." Here is how Citi previews the upcoming US election which "may generate extremely high uncertainty that likely will impose a significant drag on economic growth", and Citi's breakdown of Black Swans, mostly associated with a Trump presidency.

Potential Crisis Triggers Continue To Pile Up In 2016

We are a little over half way through 2016 and, at the current rate, it will be a miracle if the year finishes without outright catastrophe in half the nations of the world. Some might call these events “Black Swans,” some might call them completely engineered threats, others might call it all a simple “coincidence” or a tragedy of errors. We stand strictly by the position that most of the dangers we see today have been deliberately escalated, if not strategically implemented. Chaos is NOT the end game, it is only a tool by which the elites gain psychological leverage over the masses so that people willingly give up their rights to self determination and hand more power to the establishment.