Black Swans

Sornette's Supercomputer Is Betting On A Market Crash

“One can observe the continuation of a trend in the growth of positive bubbles in the fixed income asset class for the second month. The fraction of stocks diagnosed in a positive bubble state increased this month to exceed 36% compared with 32% last month. Mixed bubble signals still occur only in few commodity indices. We also observe renewed bubble activity in currency pairs.”

Stockman: Orange Is The New Black (Swan)

"Black swans are supposedly unexpected, stealthy and come of a sudden. But not this one — it is bright orange, and in your face day and night... I refer to the Donald, of course, and the fact that he is truly the Great Disrupter."

Here Are The Seven "Black Swans" SocGen Believes Could Shock Global Markets

"policy is the main potential source of both upside and downside risk, be it with respect to fiscal expansion, trade policies, wage outcomes, euro area reform or monetary policy. As China tightens policy, what happens next in the US has become critical, we look for modest US tax cuts but believe that, Trumpflation insufficient to offset fading Xiflation." - SocGen

"There's No Evidence, Stupid!"

The upshot of all this will be a political circus for the rest of the year and the abandonment of any real business in government, at a moment in history when some very weighty black swans circle above the clouds waiting to crash land. Enjoy the histrionics if you dare, and pay no attention to collapsing economy as it all plays out.

Chinese Black Swans? No Problem!

With bonds, stocks, and commodities collapsing amid a renewed wave of Chinese monetray conditions tightening, concerns over potential butterfly effects and potential 'black swans' are beginning to appear. However, as The South China Morning Post reports, the people of Shanghai have a solution for that...

What Nassim Taleb Can Teach Us

Nassim Nicholas Taleb does not suffer fools gladly... "we are increasingly ruled by an intellectual, political, economic, and cultural elite that does not bear the consequences of the decisions it makes on our (unwitting) behalf..."