BLS

Fake Jobs Plague The U.S. Economy

The long-term decline in median income, amplified in 2016 by the biggest drop in weekly earnings in history, puts the lie to the pretense of self-sustaining recovery. Average people don’t have enough discretionary income to sustain expanded economic activity.

Weekend Reading: The Fed Loses Control (And What Comes Next)

The BEA has just announced they will trim 2% off of GDP next month. Of course, this explains why many of the numbers just “didn’t add up.” Importantly, the current decline in corporate profits and collapse in return on equity suggest the current economic backdrop is far weaker than currently reported. Next year’s negative revisions to GDP will reveal this to be the case and that a recession will likely have started in the latter half of this year.

Tyranny Of The PhDs

Sad to say, you haven’t seen nothin’ yet. The world is drifting into financial entropy, and it is going to get steadily worse. That’s because the emerging stock market slump isn’t just another cyclical correction; it’s the opening phase of the end-game. That is, the end game of the PhD Tyranny.

The Fed Has Whiffed Again - Massive Monetary Stimulus Has Not Helped Labor, Part 2

In today’s world of flexible just-in-time production, hours-based labor scheduling and gig-based employment patterns, there is really no such standardized labor unit as a “job”. In that context, a simple paint-by-the-numbers exercise demonstrates the foolishness of the Fed’s obsession with hitting a quantitative “full employment” target.

The Fed Has Whiffed Again - Massive Monetary Stimulus Has Not Helped Labor, Part 1

There is a deep irony embedded in the Fed’s savage assault on savers and its delusional doctrine of interest rate repression. While this actually results in monumental windfalls to speculators and the one percent, it’s all justified in the name of boosting the labor market and the wage bill. All this money printing has been for naught. Notwithstanding the 9X eruption of the Fed’s balance sheet from $500 billion at the turn of the century to $4.5 trillion today, growth in the most basic measure of labor input - total hours worked - has come to a grinding halt.

It's Time To Blame Obamacare For Losing So Many Full-Time Jobs

Had a sinking feeling about the economy of late? It may not be your imagination. Economic indicators have flashed yellow for much of 2016, and the latest jobs report shows further depletion of the work force and a dearth of job creation. That trend, says one major bank, may be attributable to President Barack Obama’s signature legislation.

This Employment Trend Is Not Your Friend

Based on the historical correlation and the sharp growth in C&I loan delinquencies recently, it is conceivable employment drops abruptly over the next 6 months.

Peter Schiff Warns "This Is The Point Where The Fed's Real Problems Begin"

There is another cycle here that is much more influential on the current market dynamic and should be much easier to spot. When the Fed talks up the economy and promises rate increases, the dollar usually rallies. When the dollar rallies, U.S. multi-national corporate profits take a hit, and the market falls. When the market falls, economic confidence falls and puts pressure on the Fed to maintain easy policy. This is a loop that the Fed does not have the stomach to break.

The Federal Reserve's Strange Behavior Makes Perfect Sense

If you think the Federal Reserve’s goal is to maintain or repair the U.S. economy, then you will never understand why they do the things they do or why the economy evolves the way that it does. The Fed’s job is not to protect the U.S. economy. The Fed’s job is to DESTROY the U.S. economy to make way for a truly global system.

The Beveridge Confusion: Hiring Tumbles Despite Job Openings Rising To Record High

In a surprising twist, today's JOLTS report revealed that while job openings continued rise, and in fact hit a record high. actual hiring slowed down substantially: at 5.092MM new hires in the month of April, this was the lowest since September of 2015. As the chart below, which correlates the 12 month change in NFPs to hires, the labor market may indeed be rolling over.

China's Real Unemployment Rate Is Three Times Higher Than The Offical Number

Based on a new report by Fathom Consulting, it appears that China is also dramatically misreporting what may be the one most critical for social stability metric, its unemployment rate, which when stripped away of the political propaganda, is more than three times greater than the officially reported rate. According to Fathom, China's underemployment Indicator has tripled to 12.9% since 2012 even while the official jobless rate has hovered near 4% for five years.