• Bruce Krasting
    12/18/2014 - 21:42
      The one thing that Jordan can't do in this war is appear to be weak.
  • Marc To Market
    12/20/2014 - 12:21
    When the dollar falls, we are told it is logical.  The empire is crashing and burning.  When the dollar rises, the markets, we are told are manipulated.    Well, the dollar is...

BLS

Tyler Durden's picture

The "Unequivocally 'Not' Good" Reality Of Lower Oil Prices & Jobs





The drop in oil prices is certain to cause some incremental unemployment in the U.S. energy industry; the question is simply how much and what that means for the American economy as a whole.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Consumer Prices Plunge Most Since Dec 2008





Great news: The prices consumers pay dropped 0.3% MoM in November - the biggest deflation since Dec 2008. Of course, The Fed will be in "considerable" panic mode at this data and may choose to crush the hope of so many that rate hikes are coming in mid-2015 as definitive evidence that the US economy is well on the road to recovery. Ex-Food-and-Energy, prices rose 1.7% YoY - slightly missing expectations of +1.8%. Of course, a big driver of this 'transitory' disinflation is a 10.5% YoY drop in Gasoline and 6.6% MoM drop in November. Despite this huge drop, and thge promises of various talking heads, airfares rose 1.36% in November (after also rising 2.39% in October) - so much for the benefits to the consumer.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Should You Believe What They Tell You? Or What You See?





Sometimes I wish I could just passively accept what my government monarchs and their mainstream media mouthpieces feed me on a daily basis. Why do I have to question everything I’m told? Life would be much simpler and I could concentrate on more important things like the size of Kim Kardashian’s ass... The willfully ignorant masses, dumbed down by government education, lured into obesity by corporate toxic packaged sludge disguised as food products, manipulated, controlled and molded by an unseen governing class of rich men, and kept docile through never ending corporate media propaganda, are nothing but pawns to the arrogant sociopathic pricks pulling the wires in this corporate fascist empire of debt.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

US Imports Most Deflation From Japan Since 2010





Two months ago, when looking at the US Import Price Index (by origin), we showed Where The US Is Importing All The "Evil" Deflation From. The answer, courtesy of Abenomics, was simple: Japan. Earlier today we got further evidence that while the Fed is banging its head over how to halt America's deflationary spiral further away from the Fed's 2% target (at least as measured by the BLS), what it should do - if it really cares - is get on the phone with Abe and tell him to end Abenomics and Japan's unprecedented exporting of deflation (and importing of inflation).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Beijing, We Have A Problem





The Chinese stock market hit a four year high today at 3,020. This is up 53% since the middle of 2013 low and up 48% in the last six months. I guess this must mean the Chinese economy is operating on all cylinders. If you think so, you’d be wrong. As Anne Stevenson-Yang - who has lived there since 1985, told Barron's, the entire Chinese economic miracle is a fraud. The reforms are false. The leaders are corrupt and as evil as ever. The entire edifice is built upon a Himalayan mountain of bad debt. This lady is about as blunt as you can get about Chinese fraud, lies, mal-investment, and data manipulation.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

This Time Is The Same: Like The Housing Bubble, The Fed Is Ignoring The Shale Bubble In Plain Sight





We are now far advanced into the third central bank generated bubble of the last two decades, but our monetary politburo has taken no notice whatsoever of its self-evident leading wave. Namely, the massive malinvestments and debt mania in the shale patch.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Something Stinks Inside The BLS Jobs Data





"I find it extremely odd and troubling that starting with January 2013, the Establishment Survey started moving in nearly an exactly straight line (benchmarks are important). That observation is made more curious by a memo that was just sent out by the Census Bureau to its field offices (the BLS crunches the numbers, but contracts out with the Census Bureau to actually conduct the surveys)... In other words, they were told that there would be penalties for cheating on the surveys, which apparently is tied to suggestions of a rash of field workers completing surveys for people never actually surveyed. The reason for doing so, spelled out by the New York Post, is that compensation is tied to a 90% completion rate."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Jobs, Shale, Debt And Minsky





We don’t see a whole lot of comprehension out there, so let’s try and link the obvious: employment to shale to plummeting oil prices to the debt the shale industry was built on (and which is vanishing). We know, people look at the US jobs report yesterday, and at the stock markets (Europe up some 2% across the board), and think salvation has landed on their doorstep, but the true story really is very different. We’ve been saying for weeks that lower oil prices would not be a boon but a scourge for the US economy, for several different reasons, and this is a big one. The losses to investors, the restructurings and bankruptcies, and perhaps even the bailouts, are a very much interconnected and crosslinked other. There’s no resilience – left – in a system like this, it bets all on red, and that makes it terribly brittle.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Obama To Announce Ash Carter As New Defense Chief, Boast About November Jobs: Live Webcast





The ink isn't dry yet on the amazing midterm drubbing of the democrats over what most Americans said were deteriorating economic issues and a recovery that continues to only be there on BLS goalseeked paper, and lo and behold, here is Obama, about to boast about today's whopper of a jobs number, in which the BLS proudly reported the US hired some 321K workers in November, mostly temps, secretaries, retail and leisure workers and teachers. That, and the president is also expected to announce the choice of Ash Carter as the new Secretary of Defense.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Where The Jobs Were: Secretaries, Waiters, Retail, Education, Leisure And Temp-Help





Curious just what the "quality" of jobs that comprised the best jobs report in nearly 3 years? Here is the answer: Retail Trade, Education and Health, and Leisure and Hospitality, as well as Administrative Assistants, cumulatively made up more than half of the jobs gains in the month. All minimum-wage or just above paying jobs. Which is why anyone who believes that wages rose at the rate the BLS would like you to believe, may want to wait until the inevitable downward revision.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Full-Time Jobs Down 150K, Participation Rate Remains At 35 Year Lows, "No Job Market For Young Men"





While the seasonally-adjusted headline Establishment Survey payroll print reported by the BLS moments ago may be indicative of an economy which the Fed will soon have to temper in an attempt to cool down, a closer read of the November payrolls report shows several other things that were not quite as rosy. First, the Household Survey was nowhere close to confirming the Establishment Survey data, suggesting jobs rose only by 4K from 147,283K to 147,287K, and furthermore, the breakdown was skewed fully in favor of Part-Time jobs, which rose by 77K while Full-Time jobs declined by 150K.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

US Adds 321K Jobs In November, Most Since 2012, Unemployment Rate Remains At 5.8%





If the Fed needed a flashing red light that the time for a first rate hike is overdue, it just got it moments ago when the BLS reported that in November some 321K jobs were added, a 4 sigma beat to the 230K expected, and well above the revised 243K in October. In fact, this was the biggest monthly jobs addition since January 2012!

 
Tyler Durden's picture

B-Dud Explains The Fed’s Economic Coup (Or Why Every Asset Price Influencing Monetary Policy Transmission Is Now Manipulated)





The Fed can do only do two concrete things to influence these income and credit sources of spending - both of which are unsustainable, dangerous and an assault on free market capitalism’s capacity to generate growth and wealth. It can induce households to consume a higher fraction of current income by radically suppressing interest rates on liquid savings. And it can inject reserves into the financial system to induce higher levels of credit creation. But the passage of time soon catches up with both of these parlor tricks.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Say Goodbye To Mid-2015 Rate Hikes: Revised "Hourly Compensation" Crashes





But all the clever talking heads (the same ones that to-a-man saw rising rates this year) keep telling us that wage inflation is coming any minute, it has to right, and will create escape velocity and nirvana on American soil. Sorry, nope. Unit labor costs dropped 1.0% in Q3 against a 0.3% preliminary print and expectations of a mere 0.2% drop (the 4th missing quarter of th elast 5 and lowest growth since Q4 2013. What is more problematic is real hourly compensation was revised drastically lower - quite a plunge.

 
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