BLS

US Futures Dip, European Stocks Slide After EU Court Slams Italian Bank Bailout Plans

After a head-scratching S&P500 rally - which not even Goldman has been able to justify - pushed stocks to new all time highs with seemingly daily record highs regardless of fundamentals or geopolitical troubles, overnight US equity futures dipped modestly, tracking weak European stocks as demand for safe haven assets including U.S. Treasuries and gold rises. Asian stocks outside Japan fall. Crude oil trades near $45 a barrel. 

Empire Fed Unexpectedly Drops As New Orders Tumble, Labor Conditions Deteriorate

While recent regional Fed manufacturing indices had shown a pickup in recent weeks, moments ago the Empire Fed, aka the New York State manfucaturing index, disappointed, declining five points from 6 to 0.55, below the 5.0 expected print. The volatile series has now printed below zero, at zero, above zero, below zero, above zero and at zero over the past 6 months.

David Rosenberg: "This Is The Pain Trade"

"This is the pain trade.... When I look at valuations and I see PE multiples north of 20…I'm not going to say that the markets are in bubble territory but it's just a little too expensive for me right now."

Is The Fed Helping Robots Find Jobs?

When you buy a robot to replace a human employee, what you’re really doing is capitalizing the cost of the employee... So the real cost of a machine goes down when the cost of funds goes down. It’s a capital investment. So, when the cost of capital goes down to zero, a company with access to that cheap – or even free – money can afford to pay almost an infinite amount of money to get rid of its employees... In other words, Zero-interest-rate policy is really a full robot employment program.”

Greater Fools Have Stormed The Casino

Since last Friday’s phony jobs report the casino has become so unhinged that analysis is beside the point. It is not surprising at all that the robo-machines are now gunning for the 2200 point on the S&P 500 charts. That’s what they do. What defies explanation, however, is that the several dozen humans left on Wall Street who apparently talk to Bob Pisani are actually attempting to rationalize this “breakout” of, well, madness.

Labor Market Continues To Deteriorate: Job Openings Tumble, Fewest Hires Since 2014

It wasn't just job opening which disappointed in May: so did the far more important, in our opinion, number of hires. In May, the BLS reported that the number of total hires was only 5.036MM, the third month in a row of declines, and the lowest print since November 2014 as suddenly employers clamped down on new (seasonally-adjusted) hiring.

The Chart That Barack Obama Does Not Want Young, Black Males To See

Perhaps one of the more interesting data points from last week's Employment Report is displayed in the graph above, which shows that the jobless rate for black male teens (aged 16-19 years) increased to 40.1% in June from 28.1% in May. Except for a slightly higher increase of 12.2 percentage points during the aftermath of the Great Recession, the 12 percentage point increase in June was the highest monthly increase in history going back to 1972.

Chasing Fools Gold (aka Central Banker Alchemy)

Remember the story of “The Philosopher’s stone?” In a nut shell it was an alchemical substance capable of turning worthless metals into gold. Today, much like those of yore, central bankers across the globe are engaging in that never-ending quest for the ability to turn the worthless – into the precious. And to the ill-informed it seems they have indeed achieved it. That is, as long as you wrap it in the same cloth as found in “The Emperor’s New Clothes.” For if not – the naked truth becomes appalling clear. And it ain’t pretty.

Fear The No Fear

Don’t put on the “party hats” just yet...

"The World Is Walking From Crisis To Crisis" - Why BofA Sees $1,500 Gold And $30 Silver

The world has been walking from crisis to crisis and we see risks that this may not change. The importance of that dynamic for the precious metals is mirrored by the high correlation between potential US GDP growth and gold quotations. Interest  rates globally are set to remain low, which in turn reduces the opportunity costs of holding a non-yielding asset like gold. We believe gold prices could rise to $1,500/oz near-term. We called a bottom in silver in April on supply and demand dynamics; an overshoot of prices to $30/oz is possible.

Why Deutsche Bank Expects A Collapse In Monthly Job Growth To Under 60,000

The current labor/productivity gap implies that over the next 4 quarters, the cumulative slowdown in labor input growth should be 4.5 percent. This implies that aggregate hours (which most recently have been expanding at a 1.6 percent annual rate) would average just 0.5 percent (1.6 – 4.5 / 4). Expressed in terms of new jobs, this means that unless firms cut back on employee hours, monthly job creation would average close to 60K next year, a substantial drop from the 200K average of the past 12 months.

Stockman Warns Of "Awful Price To Be Paid For One-Way Markets"

The boys and girls on Wall Street are now riding their bikes with no hands and eyes wide shut. That’s the only way to explain Friday’s lunatic buying spree in response to another jobs report that proves exactly nothing about an allegedly resurgent economy.

The Bearish David Rosenberg Reemerges: "What If I Told You Employment Actually Declined 119,000 In June"

"When the Household survey is put on the same comparable footing as the payroll series (the payroll and population-concept adjusted number), employment fell 119,000 in June — again calling into question the veracity of the actual payroll report — and is down 517,000 through this span. The six-month trend has dipped below the zero-line and this has happened but two other times during this seven-year expansion."