BLS

The Frogs Are Boiling Again - Why Wall Street Stays In The Pot

Wall Street’s cockeyed faith that another stock market bailout is on the way rests on the idea of a post-election return to fiscal stimulus - since even the casino punters now see that the jig is up on ZIRP, NIRP and QE. Here’s the problem. When General (Paul) Ryan gets together in the oval office with either Hillbama or the Donald next February the budget projections will already be deep in trillion dollar deficits under current policy. Therefore what will get stimulated, if anything, is a colossal political firestorm over who bankrupted the nation. There will not be another fiscal stimulus this go round. This time the frogs of Wall Street will be left to boil.

Job Openings Back To All Time Highs: Yellen's "Favorite Labor Indicator" Says Its Time To Hike

When last Friday's disappointing payrolls report hit, which saw just 160K jobs added in April, stocks initially tumbled only to surge as the case of a June rate hike was quickly taken off the table. Not only that, but according to Fed Fund futures as of this moment, the Fed won't hike until some time in early 2017. However, one look at the latest JOLTS data, admittedly Janet Yellen's favorite jobs indicator, paints a very different picture.

China Trade And The Inevitability Of Systemic Reset

The reset is the answer, not the problem. Delaying the answer only elongates the pain of the problem. Under the direction of orthodox economics (the fusion of Keynes and monetarism) the world’s “stimulus” apparatus is making a bad situation worse by (at best) dragging it out far longer than maybe it would have under more traditional business cycle conditions. Belief in the power of “stimulus” to make it happen prevents awareness of what is, again, really a paradigm shift that will not be altered. What we are analyzing, then, is not what awaits but how long it takes to get there and the huge, growing costs to delay what looks only inevitable.

Trumped! Why It Happened And What Comes Next, Part 3 - The Jobs Deal

Donald Trump’s patented phrase “we aren’t winning anymore” lies beneath the tidal wave of anti-establishment sentiment propelling his campaign and, to some considerable degree, that of Bernie Sanders, too. What’s winning is Washington, Wall Street and the bicoastal elites. But most of America’s vast flyover zone has been left behind. Thus, the bottom 90% of families have no more real net worth today than they had 30 years ago and earn lower real household incomes and wages than they did 25 years ago. Needless to say, the lack of good jobs lies at the bottom of the wealth and income drought on main street, and this week’s April jobs report provided still another reminder.

President Obama Explains What The "Fiction-Peddling" BLS Got Wrong - Live Feed

Grab your popcorn. Having proclaimed his greatest achievement during his presidency as "saving the world from another Great Depression," we wonder what President Obama will have to say today when he discusses the economy. Following the decline in corporate profits, a manufacturing sector in recession, an auto industry which is shuttering production, minimum wage state job losses rising, and an equity market that is unable to make new highs, what cynical, skeptical, "fiction-peddlers" will he blame today's dismal jobs data on?

Where The April Jobs Were

We already know that the quantity of the April jobs was disappointing, but what about the quality? Well, on one hand the BLS reported that based on the Household Survey, in April 253K full time jobs were lost so there's that. But what did the Establishment Survey, which is the far more massaged one and thus the one that algos pay the most attention to, show?

One Chart Says It All

This chart says it all: real income is declining and the bottom 95% are poorer. No wonder people are socking away what they can and tightening their spending: they have no other choice, even as the Federal Reserve strip-mines their savings.

The Cult Of Central Banking Is Dead In The Water

So what is to be done, as Lenin once queried? In a word it is this. Fire the Fed. Attend to supply side policy. Let market capitalism do the rest. The cult of central banking is dead in the water.

Lies, Lies, & OMG More Lies...

"I have certain rules that I live by... My first rule - I don't believe anything the government tells me." - George Carlin

Why The US Output Gap Means The 10 Year Is Going Below 1%

In an asset management context, US Treasury interest rates tend to trend lower when there is an output gap and trend higher when there is an output surplus. This simple, yet overlooked rule has helped to guide us to stay correctly long US Treasuries over the last several years while the Wall Street community came up with any reason why they were a losing asset class. We continue to think that US Treasury interest rates have significant appreciation ahead of them. As we have stated before, we think the 10yr US Treasury yield will fall to 1.00% or below.

Hillary Will Be The Least Of Your Worries - America Has Economic Diarrhea

According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the official recession arbiter, the US economy is currently at its fourth longest expansion in history. By the sheer nature of a capitalistic society with its inherent cyclicality it is a safe bet that a new economic recession will hit in the not too distant future. We have argued since June last year that the next recession is imminent and we now feel increasingly confident that our prediction will come true before November’s Presidential Election. Even mainstream forecasters seem to jump on the increasingly likely recession-bandwagon.