"The World Is Walking From Crisis To Crisis" - Why BofA Sees $1,500 Gold And $30 Silver

The world has been walking from crisis to crisis and we see risks that this may not change. The importance of that dynamic for the precious metals is mirrored by the high correlation between potential US GDP growth and gold quotations. Interest  rates globally are set to remain low, which in turn reduces the opportunity costs of holding a non-yielding asset like gold. We believe gold prices could rise to $1,500/oz near-term. We called a bottom in silver in April on supply and demand dynamics; an overshoot of prices to $30/oz is possible.

Why Deutsche Bank Expects A Collapse In Monthly Job Growth To Under 60,000

The current labor/productivity gap implies that over the next 4 quarters, the cumulative slowdown in labor input growth should be 4.5 percent. This implies that aggregate hours (which most recently have been expanding at a 1.6 percent annual rate) would average just 0.5 percent (1.6 – 4.5 / 4). Expressed in terms of new jobs, this means that unless firms cut back on employee hours, monthly job creation would average close to 60K next year, a substantial drop from the 200K average of the past 12 months.

Stockman Warns Of "Awful Price To Be Paid For One-Way Markets"

The boys and girls on Wall Street are now riding their bikes with no hands and eyes wide shut. That’s the only way to explain Friday’s lunatic buying spree in response to another jobs report that proves exactly nothing about an allegedly resurgent economy.

The Bearish David Rosenberg Reemerges: "What If I Told You Employment Actually Declined 119,000 In June"

"When the Household survey is put on the same comparable footing as the payroll series (the payroll and population-concept adjusted number), employment fell 119,000 in June — again calling into question the veracity of the actual payroll report — and is down 517,000 through this span. The six-month trend has dipped below the zero-line and this has happened but two other times during this seven-year expansion."

June Employment Soars By 287K, Smashing Expectations, Highest Since October

So much for that terrible May jobs report: one month after the BLS reported the worst jobs report since 2010, moments ago the BLS reported that in June jobs increased by a whopping 287K, the highest increase since the 295K reported in October 2015, despite a downward revision to last month's 38K which is now up 11K.

Brexit Proved It's All A Central Bank Funded Mirage

Why can’t the markets proceed any higher than when QE ended in Oct/Nov of 2014? You know, if this is truly: a fundamentally based bull market that is. Or, is it that – its fundamentally full of bull? I believe it’s a big-ole-pile of the latter, and little to none of the former. Put a different way: Explain why does it take more central banker intervention, or the promise thereof, to stop these falls? If it were all “fundamentally” based on market principles, again, why is there a need or call for even more monetary interventionism? (i.e., negative interest rates, “helicopter” styled moves, etc., etc.)

Fake Jobs Plague The U.S. Economy

The long-term decline in median income, amplified in 2016 by the biggest drop in weekly earnings in history, puts the lie to the pretense of self-sustaining recovery. Average people don’t have enough discretionary income to sustain expanded economic activity.

Weekend Reading: The Fed Loses Control (And What Comes Next)

The BEA has just announced they will trim 2% off of GDP next month. Of course, this explains why many of the numbers just “didn’t add up.” Importantly, the current decline in corporate profits and collapse in return on equity suggest the current economic backdrop is far weaker than currently reported. Next year’s negative revisions to GDP will reveal this to be the case and that a recession will likely have started in the latter half of this year.

Tyranny Of The PhDs

Sad to say, you haven’t seen nothin’ yet. The world is drifting into financial entropy, and it is going to get steadily worse. That’s because the emerging stock market slump isn’t just another cyclical correction; it’s the opening phase of the end-game. That is, the end game of the PhD Tyranny.

The Fed Has Whiffed Again - Massive Monetary Stimulus Has Not Helped Labor, Part 2

In today’s world of flexible just-in-time production, hours-based labor scheduling and gig-based employment patterns, there is really no such standardized labor unit as a “job”. In that context, a simple paint-by-the-numbers exercise demonstrates the foolishness of the Fed’s obsession with hitting a quantitative “full employment” target.

The Fed Has Whiffed Again - Massive Monetary Stimulus Has Not Helped Labor, Part 1

There is a deep irony embedded in the Fed’s savage assault on savers and its delusional doctrine of interest rate repression. While this actually results in monumental windfalls to speculators and the one percent, it’s all justified in the name of boosting the labor market and the wage bill. All this money printing has been for naught. Notwithstanding the 9X eruption of the Fed’s balance sheet from $500 billion at the turn of the century to $4.5 trillion today, growth in the most basic measure of labor input - total hours worked - has come to a grinding halt.

It's Time To Blame Obamacare For Losing So Many Full-Time Jobs

Had a sinking feeling about the economy of late? It may not be your imagination. Economic indicators have flashed yellow for much of 2016, and the latest jobs report shows further depletion of the work force and a dearth of job creation. That trend, says one major bank, may be attributable to President Barack Obama’s signature legislation.

This Employment Trend Is Not Your Friend

Based on the historical correlation and the sharp growth in C&I loan delinquencies recently, it is conceivable employment drops abruptly over the next 6 months.