BLS

Payrolls Preview: Unemployment Rate Expected To Drop (But Blame The Weather & Calendar If Not)

A series of stronger than expected data in recent days pushed Goldman Sachs to up their payrolls growth expectation to 200k (above the 180k expectations), but they note that while the unemployment rate is likely to drop (to 4.8%), average hourly earnings may disappoint. Of course, they add, any non-narrative-confirming misses on the data can likely be explained away by "weather effects and residual seasonality."

Labor Market Rolling Over: Hiring Below 2014 Levels, Despite Rising Job Openings

Confrming that the US labor market is indeed rolling over, despite the near record (if modestly declining) number of job openings, the pace of hiring has failed to keep up, and slid once again in September, declining by 187,000 to 5.081 million. It was also lower than the September 2014 number of hires which was 5,092 million.

Diving Into The Medical CPI: Are Your Medical Expenses Up Only 5% From Year Ago?

Obamacare is on the death bed. Costs have soared, huge premium hikes are in the works for 2017, and benefits have been slashed. Meanwhile, the BLS posts preposterous statistics and the Fed seriously underestimates how much consumers are getting clobbered. Rate hikes cannot possible be the cure for this mess.

The October Payrolls Report: What Wall Street Expects

While the October payrolls report, due out at 8:30am on Friday, has taken on a secondary importance in light of the market's near certainty that the Fed will hike rates in December (absent a Trump victory and/or a market crash), analysts and traders will surely be concerned any prominent outlier prints that deviate too far from the consensus estimate of 175K. So, in preview of tomorrow's biggest economic update, here is a snapshot of what Wall Street expects.

Amazon Plunges After Missing Earnings, Guides Below Expectations

After several quarters of smashing expectations, moments ago Amazon tumbled as much as 9% after reporting EPS of $0.52, far below the $0.85 expected, on revenue of $32.7 billion, in line with estimates, and up 29% from a year earlier.  Operating income also missed, printing at $575 million, below the $690.5 million expected.

The Standard Of Living Of The Irredeemables Continues To Plunge As 'Not So Hidden' Inflation Soars

With real wages stagnant below 1.5%, rising energy costs, soaring medical costs due to Obamacare, record high home prices and rent expense due to the Fed, the average new car price at a record $34,000, and food prices rising steadily, the standard of living of the irredeemables continues to plunge. But at least our taxes will be going up if Hillary and the establishment have sufficiently rigged the election to insure her victory. Sit back and enjoy our journey to third world status.

Black Worker Wages Rise The Most On Record

Who says there is no wage growth? Certainly not the Labor Department, at least when it comes to black workers. In a release on Thursday, the DOL reported that seven years after the "end" of the recession, median wages for full-time black workers jumped by 9.8% in the Q3 - the biggest quarterly jump since record began in 2000.

Producer Prices Rise Most Since 2014 After Jump In Gasoline, Investment Advisory Costs

Following the unexpectedly hot Chinese inflation data, where PPI posted its first annual increase since March 2012, moments ago the BLS reported that like in China, US wholesale prices also rose more than the 0.2% expected, up 0.3% in September, following an unchanged print the prior month.  On an annual basis, the final demand index increased 0.7% in September from a year ago, the largest 12-month rise since advancing 0.9% in December 2014.

President Obama's Premature Victory Lap

Before President Obama takes his final victory lap with claims of creating the most robust employment recovery since the 1990’s, the data clearly suggests otherwise. Of course, if you ask the 37% that are no longer counted as part of the labor force, they will tell you the same thing.