Washington can’t stop lying. Don’t be convinced by last Thursday’s job report that it is your fault if you don’t have a job. Those 288,000 jobs and 6.1% unemployment rate are more fiction than reality. What you can take away from this is the opposite of what the presstitute media would have you believe. For the most part economists have turned a blind eye. Economists serve the globalists. It pays them well. The corruption in present-day America is total. No one serves truth and liberty. America has left us. We now have the tyranny of the Orwellian state that rules, not by the ballot box and Constitution, but by force and propaganda.
All around Asia, PMIs are tumbling... except for China's government-sponsored Manufacturing PMI. This week saw Aussie Services PMI (linked significantly to China) tumbled to 2014 lows, Japan's PMI drop, and China's own Services PMI disappoint and fade to 2-month lows. So where is all this exuberance coming from in China's manufacturing industry (despite a 8-month in a row drop in employment)? We don't know; but the fact that China coal prices just hit a record low hardly supports the smog-choking industry of China being at 7-month highs... Hard data vs soft surveys? You decide.
Is this the reason for the blowout, on the surface, payroll number?
- Citigroup 190K
- HSBC 200K
- Goldman Sachs 210K
- UBS 215K
- JP Morgan 220K
- Deutsche Bank 225K
- Bank of America 225K
- Barclays 250K
Where Disposable Income Goes To Die: Since 1990 Real Rents Are Up 15% While Median Incomes Are UnchangedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/02/2014 09:48 -0500
To the Fed's Janet Yellen, runaway inflation - at least that which can not be "hedonised" away by the BLS like iPad and LCD TV prices - may be simply "noise", which probably explains why she doesn't rent. But for the record number of Americans who are forced to rent as house prices are too high for the vast majority of the population while mortgage origination has tumbled to record lows (as banks can generate far higher returns on reserve by buying stocks than lending out said money), inflation is going from bad to worse. Case in point: as the WSJ shows, since 1990 asking rents - in real terms i.e., adjusted for inflation - have increased a whopping 15%. The change in median income over the same period? 0%.
Surge In Government Job Creation, Most Since August 2008, Offset By Private Jobs Decline Adds To ADP ConfusionSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 07/02/2014 08:46 -0500
Moments after the outlier ADP private payrolls jobs number, the highest since November 2012, was released Gallup offered its own poll-based take on the US jobs market with the release of its monthly US Jobs Creation Index. To some this useful datapoint may explain the ADP-reported surge in hiring, although a more nuanced read simply add to the confusion.
One would think that with the economy, allegedly, growing at above-trend rates as Goldman has wagered for the second time in 4 years (the first time Hatzius was dead wrong), with jobs being added at what the BLS would have the market believe is a healthy 200K+ monthly clip, and of course with the S&P500 at record all time highs now on a daily basis, that the US business services sector would be humming along nicely, with little to no slack. One would be wrong: according to the WSJ even with all the alleged economic activity and all post-Lehman job losses having now been recovered, "employers have only reoccupied about 52% of the 142 million square feet that went vacant amid the economic downturn."
The Great Depression did not represent the failure of capitalism or some inherent suicidal tendency of the free market to plunge into cyclical depression - absent the constant ministrations of the state through monetary, fiscal, tax and regulatory interventions. Instead, the Great Depression was a unique historical occurrence - the delayed consequence of the monumental folly of the Great War, abetted by the financial deformations spawned by modern central banking. But ironically, the “failure of capitalism” explanation of the Great Depression is exactly what enabled the Warfare State to thrive and dominate the rest of the 20th century because it gave birth to what have become its twin handmaidens - Keynesian economics and monetary central planning. Together, these two doctrines eroded and eventually destroyed the great policy barrier - that is, the old-time religion of balanced budgets - that had kept America a relatively peaceful Republic until 1914. The good Ben (Franklin that is) said,” Sir you have a Republic if you can keep it”. We apparently haven’t.
It's a simple question, yet one which is so difficult to answer (for lack of available data), and which fills most workers (especially those with a chip on their shoulder and/or delusions of grandeur) with dread: "Am I over, or underpaid in my job?" The following handy chart, created by Reddit user Dan Lin, attempts to answer just this question with a breakdown of some 820 jobs listed by the BLS, with percentile data (25th, 50th, 75th, 90th) for the wage of any given occupation, allowing the determination where, relative to the median, one is paid.
This week the BLS released its latest "American Time Use Survey" and unlike last year, this time we were not surprised to learn that not only are Americans far more preoccupied with sleeping and watching TV than working, but they have never slept more and worked less in the past decade. Perhaps in addition to obesity, the ongoing deterioration in the fundamentals of the US economy, already crushed by the Fed's central planning capital misallocation, may have something to do with this latest disturbing trend. Just perhaps. As John P. Robinson, a sociology professor at the University of Maryland, correctly observes, "The data defies popular expectations. People say they're too busy for leisure and don't have time to sleep, but that seems not to be the case."
On the day after Chairman Yellen’s press conference, investors aggressively bid up inflation trades across numerous asset classes. Gold and silver rallied sharply, TIPS implied inflation breakevens widened (despite a new slug of 30-year supply), Treasury yields rose, and the yield curve steepened. Based on investor positioning and market sentiment (CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data show record net short positions exceeding $1.5 trillion in notional rates exposure among speculators in the eurodollar futures markets), there’s decent potential for additional gains in these inflation expressions in the days and weeks ahead.
The Myth Of Wage Inflation Comes Crashing Down: Real Hourly Earnings Slide To Lehman Bankruptcy LevelsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/17/2014 08:46 -0500
As reported moments ago by the BLS, real average hourly earnings just posted their third sequential decline in a row, dropping from $10.33 in February, to $10.32 in March, to $10.30 in April, to $10.28 in May. Furthermore, this was the first year over year decline since October 2012. And to put today's $10.28 real average hourly earnings number in context, this is the same real wage seen last in July 2013, July 2012, March 2011 and then, if one goes further back... the month after Lehman failed!
The Fed is now pre-occupied with an unanswerable and fanciful question, according to Jon Hilsenrath’s pre-meeting missive on the Fed’s current monetary policy “debate”. Figuratively estimating the number of angels which can dance on the head of a pin, Fed officials and economists suppose they can specify the the appropriate money market rate down to the decimal place for virtually all time to come... Of course, every one of these three magic numbers are perfectly arbitrary, academic and silly. Due to the structural failures of the US economy owing to decades of destructive Washington policies, the “unemployment rate” today is not remotely comparable to what was being measured in the 1950s and 1960s when today’s Keynesian theology with respect to the Phillips Curve, Okun’s Law and full-employment policy was being formulated.
After the surge in prices in April, May's Producer Prices fall 0.2% MoM (compoared to a +0.1% expectation). Year-over-year inflation rose 2.0% (down from last month's 2.1% and missing expectations of 2.4% significantly). This is the first MoM drop since Febuary for the headline and core numbers as it appears vehicle rental appeared to see prices implode. PPI Ex Food and Energy (core), saw prices rise at 2.0% - the fastest since May 2012.
Yesterday's market action was perfectly predictable, and as we forecast, it followed the move of the USDJPY almost to a tick, which with the help of a last minute VIX smash (just when will the CFTC finally look at the "banging the close" in the VIX by the NY Fed?) pushed the DJIA to a new record high, courtesy of the overnight USDJPY selling which in turn allowed all day buying of the key carry pair. Fast forward to today when once again we have a replica of the set up: a big overnight dump in USDJPY has sent the dollar-yen to just over 102.000. And since Nomura has a green light by the BOJ to lift every USDJPY offer south of 102.000 we expect the USDJPY to once again rebound and push what right now is a weak equity futures session (-8) well above current levels. Unless, of course, central banks finally are starting to shift their policy, realizing that they may have lost control to the upside since algos no longer care about warnings that "volatility is too low", knowing full well the same Fed will come and bail them out on even the tiniest downtick. Which begs the question: is a big Fed-mandated shakeout coming? Could the coming FOMC announcement be just the right time and place for the Fed to surprise the market out of its "complacency" and whip out an unexpected hawk out of its sleeve?