BLS

The U.S. Added Only 70,000 Jobs In February Based On Withheld Taxes

Two weeks ago we reported that while for most of 2015, tax withholdings rose at a rate of 5% or more from a year ago, on the back of job growth and gains in wages, commissions and other incentive pay, in recent months there has been a substantial dropoff in this key indicator. Today, TrimTabs put an actual jobs number to this particular decline in tax withholdings: according to the research service, the US added only 55,000 to 85,000 jobs in February, less than half of the official estimate.

Key Events In The Coming "Payrolls" Week

The week was supposed to start off quiet on the macro news front, but the PBOC spoiled that with an unprecedented Monday, Feb 29 RRR cut, its fifth since the start of 2015. In any case, it slowly builds up to the week's biggest event on Friday, when the BLS reports February payrolls and will be hard pressed to find all the seasonal adjustments it needs to cover for not only the lost jobs in the devastated energy sector but, as we reported over the weekend, the sudden dramatic air pocket in Silicon Valley jobs.

The Second Tech Bubble Has Burst: Here Come The Mass Layoffs

"Failure is often just around the corner." In this case failure means much more than just a few billionaires reseting their bubble-level valuation marks back to reality: it means that for millions of ordinary Americans who jumped on the second tech bubble bandwagon, the hangover from the party of the last few years is just around the corner. Said otherwise, the mass layoffs have arrived.

Financial Time Bombs Hiding In Plain Sight

The bear will soon be arriving in earnest, marauding through the canyons of Wall Street while red in tooth and claw. Our monetary central planners, of course, will once again - for the third time this century - be utterly shocked and unprepared. That’s because they have spent the better part of two decades deforming, distorting, denuding and destroying what were once serviceably free financial markets. Yet they remain as clueless as ever about the financial time bombs this inexorably fosters.

The Absurd Notion Of "Transitory" Is Dead

If it looks like a recession from so many different angles, chances are very good that it is. It is so consistent that even the stock market has finally awoken. The problem, the real problem, is as Nordstrom’s struggles suggest with inventory – it is only beginning. The OECD, for one, is right to be suddenly alarmed, though, as usual, it would have been far more helpful and relevant last year instead of further fostering the absurd notion of "transitory." Like Bernanke was in his turn, Yellen will be the last to admit it. Sadly for her, she can’t eat the unemployment rate.

Silver Linings: Keynesian Central Banking Is Heading For A Massive Repudiation

Inflation targeting has been a giant cover story for a monumental power grab. The academics who grabbed the power had no idea what they were doing in the financial markets that they have now saturated with financial time bombs. When these FEDs (financial explosive devices) erupt in the months and years ahead, the central bankers will face a day of reckoning. And they will surely be found wanting. The immense social damage from the imploding bubbles dead ahead will be squarely on them.

An Alarm Goes Off Threatening The "Strong U.S. Jobs" Myth: Withheld Income Taxes Are Stalling

Official Treasury tax-receipt data are at major odds with the much more upbeat numbers reported by the Labor Department. January’s year-over-year payroll increase of 2.665 million, or 1.9%, along with a 2.5% gain in average hourly earnings should yield something in the neighborhood of 4.5% year-over-year growth in tax withholdings — or more than double the actual growth rate in recent weeks. And yet over the past 10 full weeks, starting Dec. 7, tax withholdings have grown just 3.1% from a year ago.

Another Dead Cat Bounce (And They've Already Buried The Cat)

The Fed doesn’t see it coming and would be petrified by the prospect of a Wall Street hissy fit were it actually to express doubts about the sustainability of this so-called recovery. At the same time, Wall Street fails to recognize the obvious truth that the Fed is out of dry powder. If it attempts QE4, it will be a confession of total failure and lack of efficacy. If it actually seeks to launch negative interest rates, it will ignite a political firestorm of untold intensity. So both parties are unprepared for what is coming down the pike, and that makes this time truly different. There will be no massive liquidity injection and quick reflation of risk assets because even the Fed can’t push on a string when it is out of dry powder.

The Double Fallacy Recovery - The Fed's Central Planning Is Destroying Capitalism

Economists keep claiming economic recovery fulfilled, and yet it is found nowhere other than the BLS... and it is certainly not the view of funding and credit markets. In answering why economists and policymakers would throw out the vast and growing volume of especially market-based contradictions to their preferred labor view, we only have to note that this is an existential question for them.

"Billions Lost"

"While buybacks work great during bull market advances, as individuals willfully overlook the fundamentals in hopes of further price gains, the eventual collision of reality with fantasy has been a nasty event..."

Robust Job Growth Doesn't Make Sense And The Numbers Show Why

There is no productivity mystery, only a distinct and illegitimate lack of curiosity on the part of economists to simply take the Establishment Survey as gospel regardless of how little it fit the rest of the world. It also calls into question the legitimacy of the FOMC and monetary policy that was certainly subject to, and predicated upon, the same quackery. No matter how little the payroll reports described the economy as it was, including the relation to GDP, they held on to nothing else to instead deny everything.

Dear BLS, Explain This

Factory orders are collapsing. Inventories are at recession cycle highs. Manufacturing ISM and PMIs are plunging... so Dear BLS, please explain the following chart?