"Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of enrollees in America’s major public support programs are members of working families; the taxpayers bear a significant portion of the hidden costs of low-wage work in America," a new study finds, suggesting that when it comes to straining the public purse, "bad" jobs may be a bigger problem than "no" jobs.
Unemployment is the one statistic that one would have thought is easy to define: just total up the number of people on unemployment benefit and there's your answer.
“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.” ? George Orwell
“You shall know the truth and the truth shall make you mad.” ? Aldous Huxley
Randolph Duke: Money isn't everything, Mortimer.
Mortimer Duke: Oh, grow up.
Randolph Duke: Mother always said you were greedy.
Mortimer Duke: She meant it as a compliment.
"We find that in previous oil-sector downturns, job growth in non-energy sectors that are closely related to the oil & gas industry has declined by three to four times as much as the decline in oil & gas employment itself," Goldman says, implying we're likely to see a substantial number of cuts in the months ahead.
After the abysmal March payrolls number, there were expectations in the whisper forecast of today's initial claims that there would be a sizable jump in initial unemployment claims, one that may break the streak of 4 consecutive prints under 300K. It did not happen, and in fact the number which was released moments ago by the BLS indicated continued strength in the US labor market, where there was 281K initial claims in the past week, just under the 283K expected and higher than the revised 267K from last week. This is the lowest level for this average since June 3, 2000 when it was 281,500. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 285,500 to 285,250.
At this point 15 years ought to count for something. After all, we have now used up one-seventh of this century. So you can’t say its too early to tell what’s going on or to identify the underlying trends. So, after another Jobs Friday: here is the tally: The number of breadwinner jobs in the US economy is still 2 million below where it was when Bill Clinton still had his hands on matters in the Oval Office.
As the following chart shows, whereas in the past the total number of hires tracked closely the cumulative 1 year change in jobs, this time is has failed to do so, and as the chart below shows, the hires rate has dropped sharply, and at 4.916MM was not only the lowest since August but also represents the biggest two-month drop since Lehman!
The USA set the tone for 21st century magical finance, in which “wealth” was “created” by digital accounting fraud. The effects at home are visible on our landscape of suburban hyperwaste and decrepitating older towns and cities.
Americans Not In The Labor Force Soar To Record 93.2 Million As Participation Rate Drops To February 1978 LevelsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/03/2015 12:32 -0400
So much for yet another "above consensus" recovery, and what's worse it is, well, about to get even worse, because while the Fed keeps baning some illusory drum that slack in the economy is almost non-existent, the reality is that in March the number of people who dropped out of the labor force rose by yet another 277K, up 2.1 million in the past year, and has reached a record 93.175 million. Indicatively, this means that the labor force participation rate dropped once more, from 62.8% to 62.7%, a level seen back in February 1978, even as the BLS reported that the entire labor force actually declined for the second consecutive month, down almost 100K in March to 156,906.
If wage growth for over 80% of America's workers is sliding even as wage growth for all American is flat, that must mean that the wage growth for the tiny 17% of America that is its bosses and supervisors must be soaring. And sure enough, it is. In fact, as the chart below shows, wage growth of "supervisory" workers has never been higher!
America continues to be a country where there are only jobs for old men, those 55 and older, who saw a 329,000 increase in jobs in the past month. Every other age group saw job losses!
We warned yesterday that the "whisper expectation is for a NFP print that will be well below consensus, somewhere in the mid-100,000s if not worse now that the bartender hiring spree is over", and we were right: moments ago the BLS reported that in March a paltry 126K jobs were added, nearly 50% below the 245K expected, and the lowest monthly increase since March 2013.The unemployment rate was unchangned at 5.5%. The January and February data was also revised significantly lower, and subtracted a grand total of 69K jobs.