Equity markets were very much in a land of their own relative to broad risk asset classes all day until the FT's Harding "mo' Taper" memo hit and slammed reality back into the herding masses. Still convinced that the Fed will 'only' taper if the data confirms it, we suspect the broad market is missing the signals from broken markets and frothy levels that mean the Fed will use the modest improvements as a crutch upon which to jawbone tapering into our minds. Today's price action was - in the words of the great Bob Pisani, "just silly." A ramp out of the gate following Japan's lead which followed a Hilsenrath-inspired ramp-job from Friday combined with a beat for NAHB (and Empire Fed) sent all the high-beta into overdrive (builders +2.2%) - but nothing else was really moving (FX was relatively flat, bonds went sideways, commodities wriggled in a small range). The Harding hit and we gave back all the post-Hilsenrath gains, 330-ramped to VWAP and held it magically into the close (though the USD ended at its lows of the day, bond yields at their highs, and credit markets at their lows).
In a masterclass of what is 'really' going on in the world (as opposed to what we are told/spoon-fed on a daily basis), Grant Williams (of Things That Make You Go Hhhmm infamy) provides a must-watch presentation. Starting from the premise (unusual in this day and age) that the laws of mathematics are inviolable ("if it makes no sense, it is nonsense"), the Aussie investment manager sets out his own set of philosophical 'problems' that the world of 'markets' seems incapable of grasping. In a chart-filled extravaganza, Williams ranges from "Problem 1: If the global economy is stalling, Europe is in recession, China is slowing and growth is seemingly impossible to generate, what are equity markets doing at all-time highs?" to "Problem 7: The Gold Price and The Price of Gold are mutually exclusive" leaving the participant questioning everything Bob Pisani would have us believe warning in conclusion that gold is critical and "beware suppressed volatility."
Cyprus Now Set To Vote Against Bailout, Ruling Party To Abstain Guaranteeing Failure To Ratify "Bail-In"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 03/19/2013 11:56 -0400
It appears that Cyprus is now ready to escalate, following news now coming fast and furious, that the Parliament will go ahead and vote after all, but not in a good way as even the Cypriot ruling party, formerly the only party willing to vote Yes on the Bail-In, would abstain according to Dow Jones, which means there is no support at all in the Cypriot parliament for the deposit haircut proposal.
We can only pray that Bob Pisani explains what happens next because neither we, nor anyone else, has any idea what comes now.
"Whether its cash, gold, or digital-data bits, we all know that money makes the world go round; but what that money is worth depends on trust." In this fascinating documentary, National Geographic Channel takes you inside the heart of the money machine to places that you're not allowed to bring a camera (unless you're a blind-folded Bob Pisani)... straight into some of the world's largest vaults. America's Money Vault follows 55 million dollars worth of gold as it makes its way down into the most valuable gold vault in the world. Hidden deep under the streets of New York City, hundreds of billion dollars in gold bars - the wealth of nations - are tucked away in a bunker that is anchored to the bedrock of Manhattan Island itself. Following this introduction, tomorrow, we will reveal much more on the world's biggest vault.
While UBS' Art Cashin sees the 'uptrend' in stocks as largely in tact, though warns of the start of what appears to be a stalling formation, there is another 'bigger' potential crash on his mind. Having survived the Mayan apocalypse, and a Papal resignation, our home planet is due for a record setting space encounter on Friday (Feb. 15) of this week... which means it is now too late to even send Bruce Willis (or better yet, Bob Pisani) into space for an Armageddon sequel. We are told to keep calm and carry on - Bernanke-like "there is nothing to worry about", but no known asteroid has traveled this close to earth in recorded history. Let's hope the slide rule guys have it nailed - or the grand central planner.
Over the past few weeks, virtually all of the empty chatterboxes on financial comedy TV have been repeating ad infinitum just how much cheaper the market now is compared to its prior peak in 2007 because, get this, it trades at "only" a 15x multiple compared to the 18x or so reached at its peak in 2007. By doing so these same hollow pundits simply confirm just how painfully clueless their cheerleading is, as the market, or what's left of it in the "new Bernanke centrally-planned abnormal", never trades on current earnings but always future discounted EPS, or in other words, forward P/E, or any other valuation, multiples. And it is when one looks at the future on an apples to apples basis, that the market now is more expensive than it was back in 2007!
Six years ago today, with the S&P 500 around 1460 - having risen 20% without a correction for seven months - a handful of Wall Street's best and brightest joined CNBC's Larry Kudlow and Bob Pisani to discuss the Goldilocks economy, why the bears are wrong, and where the market is going next. Sometimes, we just need a reminder to snap us out of that recency bias... for example, Bob Pisani: "We have got a global rally going on... and the important thing is... there's a floor to the market - every time, for the last seven months, they sell the market down for 2 days, it comes right back... When you are in a global expansion like this, to sell...is foolish."
The S&P 500 P/E ratio is testing 15x - its highest in 19 months. This takes the stock market's valuation back to its highest since the debt-ceiling debacle and USAAA downgrade (as if nothing ever happened). Since that time, expectations for GDP growth in 2013 has plunged from 3.2% to a measly 2.0%. The 'Market of Dreams' economy continues as Bernanke's "If you BTFD, we will recover" is the only mantra left. Was it only August 2007 that Bob Pisani was reminding us all that: "improved policies on the part of those steering the economy are the likely reason we have avoided recessions."
In the chart below, the blue bar is Toys 'R' Us retail sales for 2011. Red is 2012. Hence our confusion: just which is this "blockbuster" retail season CNBC's Bob Pisani keeps referring to - the blue or the red?
Forget Facebook; Bob Pisani would be cock-a-hoop. Imagine the euphoria and excitement from a Fed IPO? What better way for the rich to get even richer than to buy shares in the world's most profitable hedge fund. And for those saying this is preposterous and that central banks should never trade publicly we bring you exhibit A: The Bank of Japan
A well-timed leak of an Obama-Boehner meeting this evening provided enough exuberance to allow algos to lift the markets (futures and ETFs first) from 'about to break the lows' to VWAP (to the tick!). S&P 500 futures picked off VWAP perfectly and slid back. The Dow and the S&P spent the afternoon stuck at unchanged on the week before the rally-monkey saved the day (as did Financials). Treasury yields continue to bleed higher (now up around 10bps on the week). Silver dislocated (worse) from its commodity peers who have recoupled +/-0.3% on the week (even as the USD is -0.6% on the week). Gold and silver (as we noted earlier) really fell out of love from the start of the day-session but silver was starting to recover into the close. AAPL was very close to its lowest close in 10 months (but again was rescued by some rampant white house leak about a totally fruitless rumor) though ended at a critical VWAP support level. By way of record-breakers - today marked the first time that we have seen stocks negative from the day before a QE announcement to the day after (no matter what Bob Pisani tells you). Equities tumbled into the close (after ringing the bell at VWAP) ending near the lows after-hours leaving financials and energy practically unchanged on the week. VIX jumped 0.5 vols to 16.4% and HYG had a very weak day on significant volume. But apart from that...
Eleven states made Forbes' list of danger spots for investors including California, New York, Illinois, and Ohio. They warned (and with the cliff it is even more critical), if you have muni bonds in these states - clean up your portfolio; if your career takes you there - rent, don't buy! Two factors determine their list of 'fiscal hellholes'. The first is whether there are more takers (someone who draws money from the government) than makers (the gainfully employed). The second is a state credit-worthiness score (via Conning) based on large debts, uncompetitive business climates, weak home prices, and bad trends in employment. Conning rates North Dakota the safest state to lend money to, Connecticut the most hazardous. A state qualifies for the Forbes' death spiral list if its taker/maker ratio exceeds 1.0 and it resides in the bottom half of Conning’s ranking. See below for the 11 states to avoid...no matter what Bob Toll, Larry Yun, Bob Pisani, or Alexandra Lebenthal tells you..
If the entire world goes full retard, is any individual instance of full retardedness unique? This is what today's IPO bomb, Ruckus, which despite (or probably due to) much praise and lauding from CNBC's Bob Pisani, bombed 20% on its first day of trading, is hoping for. The company which picked the wrong time and wrong place to go public and thus, to realize first hand that the US stock market has for years not been a market in any normal sense of the word, but merely a HFT-manipulated policy vehicle for the central planners, decided to pull ye olde scapegoating trick, and blamed it on, cerebral hemorrhage spoiler alert, Hurricane Sandy.
Roughly one third of the S&P has reported earnings so far, with another third reporting in the next five days and almighty AAPL on deck Thursday evening, and if there is one word to describe what has happened so far, that word would be "ugly." The same word would be used to describe how Q4 is shaping up to be. And that word will be very a optimistic prediction of what 2013 will bring unless a major catalyst develops that pushes Congress to resolve the fiscal cliff situation. So far that catalyst is missing. But going back to Q3 earnings, here is how Goldman's David Kostin summarizes events to date: "3Q reporting season is roughly one third finished. Two early conclusions: (1) Information Technology results have been startlingly weak with high-profile revenue disappointments by the four horsemen: MSFT, GOOG, IBM, and ORCL. (2) EPS guidance for 4Q has been overwhelmingly negative across all S&P 500 sectors with 18 of 20 firms lowering 4Q earnings guidance by a median of 5%. Analysts have lowered 4Q EPS estimates for stocks already reported by 0.4%. We expect further EPS cuts of 6% loom ahead. Firms reporting next week: AAPL, T, PG, MRK, CMCSA, AMZN, COP, AMGN, OXY, MO, UTX, MMM, CAT, DD, and FCX." Sorry Bob Pisani, better luck spinning earnings favorably next QE.