BOE

The Globalization Genie's Long Left The Bottle

Empty labels, fake news and oceans of debt keep the systems - somewhat - going for now. But the genie’s long left the bottle. The ‘incumbents’ have failed their people for far too long, most of all economically. And they keep on claiming that everything will be alright, everyone will be better off if only we execute more globalization, and give them all a few pennies more.

"Panicked" Citi Trader "Who Fired Off Repeated Sell Orders" Behind Pound Flash Crash

A probe into October’s sterling "flash crash" has focused on the Japanese trading operations of Citigroup, which fired off repeated sell orders that exacerbated the pound’s fall. One of the US bank’s traders "panicked" and placed multiple sell orders when the currency slumped in unusually fragile market conditions.

RBS Tumbles After Failing BoE's "Toughest Ever Stress Test"

While the term 'stress test' has been applied almost mockingly to European and US banks in an effort to create confidence for investors (because if the government sees risks 'contained' then why worry), this morning's Bank of England stress test results highlighted "capital inadequacies" for three major UK banks. While Barclays and Standard Chartered fell short, it is taxpayer-owned Royal Bank of Scotland that is slumping on a need to cut costs, raise capital, and sell assets.

Frontrunning: November 30

  • Oil soars on OPEC hopes, dollar renews its surge (Reuters)
  • Oil Rallies on OPEC Optimism, Spurring Gains in Energy Producers (BBG)
  • Saudis say to take 'big hit' on oil output for OPEC deal, Iran can freeze (Reuters)
  • Leaner and meaner: U.S. shale greater threat to OPEC after oil price war (Reuters)
  • an the U.S. Become an Energy Superpower in 2017? (BBG)
  • RBS Fails Toughest-Ever BOE Stress Test, Boosts Capital Plan (RBS)

Key Events In The "OPEC Is Optimistic About A Deal" Week

The key economic releases this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the December FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

Global Stocks Slide On Italian Bank Worries; Dollar Dips As Trumpflation Takes A Back Seat

European shares dipped and U.S. equity-index futures (-0.3%) pointed to a lower open as traders questioned the stability of the Italian banking sector ahead of next weekend's referendum as well as the longevity of the Trumpflation rally, pressuring the dollar.  "It's a bit of a pull back in the dollar," said Societe Generale strategist Alvin Tan. "The fall in oil is pushing back U.S. bond yields and that is leading the consolidation in the dollar.. there is more scepticism about an (OPEC) output cut now."

"What If Market Consensus Is Wrong" - A Hedge Fund Ponders The Alternative

"What if consensus is wrong: what if rates are rising due to the end of Quantitative Easing and not because of reflation/escape velocity on growth? Rates then rise without growth, perhaps even without much inflation. Indeed, rates started rising back in August, on momentous shifts in policy by BoJ (forced by capacity constraints and collateral damage). Such scenario is not good for equities, contrary to what currently believed by markets."

ECB Rejects Buying Stocks As Draghi Drops The 'C' Word To EU Parliament

Mario Draghi just dropped the c-word. In his address to the EU Parliament, the ECB President explained that financial-stability risks are "for the time being, contained." Having admitted that Deutsche Bank is correct that negative rates certainly hurt bank profits, Draghi remains "committed to accomodative policy." But it was ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure that spoiled the party by rejecting the narrative of ECB stock buying.

Goldman Reveals Its Top Trade Recommendations For 2017

  • Top Trade #1: Long US$ vs GBP and EUR
  • Top Trade #2: RMB weakening: Long $/CNY
  • Top Trade #3: Long BRL, RUB, INR and ZAR, short KRW and SGD
  • Top Trade #4: Long Brazil, India and Poland, FX un-hedged
  • Top Trade #5: Long 10-year US$ and EUR inflation
  • Top Trade #6: Long EURO STOXX 50 2018 dividends

Global Bonds Plunge As "Trumpflation" Rally Returns, Dollar Jumps

After taking a one day breather, the "Trumpflation Rally" returned with a vengeance as global government bonds tumbled and the dollar rose on renewed speculation the economic outlook is strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to hike in December (odds are now 94%). Asian shares rose, industrial metals and crude oil fell, European shares and US equity futures were pressured.