Less than 24 hours after European stocks tumbled on initial disappointment by Draghi's announcement that rates will not be cut further, mood has changed dramatically and the result has been that after "reassessing" the ECB kitchen sink stimulus, risk has soared overnight with both Asian and European stocks surging. As of this moment European bourses are all broadly higher led by banks, with the DAX and FTSE both up over 2.7%, while the Stoxx 600 is higher by 2.3% as of this writing.
- Global Stocks Drop on Renewed Concerns About China (WSJ)
- Iron Ore's Rally Stalls as Goldman to Citigroup Forecast Retreat (BBG)
- EU and Turkey close to groundbreaking migrant deal (FT)
- Carney's `Brexit' Stance Under Fire as BOE Accused of Bias (BBG)
- Oil edges lower after Kuwait dents hopes for output freeze (Reuters)
China's velocity of money is now the lowest in the entire world, a world in which China provided 40% of the entire credit impulse since 2008: "In the last seven years, China has accounted for around ~40% of entire global incremental debt creation. Such a rapid accumulation of debt in less than a decade, when combined with the capital-intensive nature of the economy and a less sophisticated financial sector, drove China’s velocity of money to one of the lowest levels globally (~0.5x, i.e. below that of Japan)."
While warnings by former central bankers who are more responsible about the current global mess sound as nothing but revisionist bullshit. And yet, it was what King said today at the launch of his new book that left us surprised.As the Telegraph reports today, according to the former head of the Bank of England Europe's economic depression "is the result of "deliberate" policy choices made by EU elites.
"Whatever can be said about the world recovery since the crisis, it has been neither strong, nor sustainable, nor balanced. There seems little political willingness to be bold, and so perhaps we should fear that the size of the ultimate adjustment will just go on getting bigger."
"If central banks do not achieve their medium-term inflation targets through NIRP, they may have to adopt other policy measures: looser fiscal policy and even helicopter money are possible in scenarios beyond QE and negative rates.
“Keeping the previous language would be very disappointing and would be viewed as either complacent or reflecting policy paralysis. [They need to] man up and tell member countries that monetary policy should be accompanied by fiscal expansion.”
Yesterday Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi made it explicitly clear that Saudi Arabia would not cut production, instead saying that it is high-cost producers that would need to either "lower costs, borrow cash or liquidate” adding that there is "no need for cuts as marginal barrel will get out of the market." He was right. Today his wish is slowly coming true after news that North Dakota's largest producer, Whiting Petroleum, would suspend all fracking, and that Continental Resources has effectively done the same after reporting that it no longer has any fracking crews working in the Bakken shale.
On Monday, everyone was giddy that the rally is back on. Less than two days later, the dour fatalism of some HFT algo stop hunting price action and a few comments by the Saudi oil minister, and the markets have remember than nothing has changed and that nothing has been fixed. But at least the biggest shorts squeeze in 5 years is finally over.
The biggest question on all traders' minds will be whether the bear market short squeeze that sent the S&P higher by 130 points in 6 days, is finally over - with most global market rolling over and with US equity futures unable to find their solid early morning footing, it may finally be time to cash out of the bear market rally which so many predicted, and which GSBank yesterday may have top-ticked with perfection.
When there is no more gold left in London to export the gold price is likely to go higher on strong global demand induced by economic headwind.
Negative interest rates act effectively as a hidden tax funneled directly to banks. They are inherently unhealthy. Currently, they could indicate also a measure of unease among two of the four most powerful central banks. If so, that could well escalate.
RANsquawk Weekly Wrap - 5th January 2016: Negative US sentiment lingers in the market while Super Thursday saw the BoE reduce their growth forecast for 2016 and 2017Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 02/05/2016 15:35 -0400
There has been an economic coup d’état in America and most of the world. We are now ruled by about 200 unelected central bankers, monetary apparatchiks and their minions and megaphones on Wall Street and other financial centers. Unlike Senator Joseph McCarthy, we actually do have a list of their names. They need to be exposed, denounced, ridiculed, rebuked and removed.
US futures were largely unchanged overnight, with a modest bounce after the European close driven by a feeble attempt to push oil higher, faded quickly and as of this moment the E-mini was hugging the flatline ahead of today's main event - the January payrolls, expected to print at 190K and 5.0% unemployment, however the whisper number - that required to push stocks higher - is well lower, at 150K (according to DB), as only a bad (in fact very bad) jobs number today will cement the Fed's relent and assure no more rate hikes in 2016 as the market now largely expects.