News That Matters
While the US bond market, if not equities, is enjoying the day off on a day in which there is no economic data just more Fed speakers including the Fed's Evans who on Friday uttered what may be the dumbest thing a central planner has ever said, the week's macro docket starts in earnest on Tuesday when China releases much anticipated September trade data. Here are the key events for the rest of the week.
Correction continues, but it is only a correction.
As part of a global investigation into how much physical gold central banks have stored at what location and how much is leased out, we submitted the local equivalent of a Freedom Of Information Act (FOIA) request at the central bank of Belgium (NBB) to obtain information about the amount of Belgian official gold reserves, the exact location of all gold bars, the type of gold accounts NBB holds at the Bank Of England (BOE) and how much is leased out and to whom. The outcome of this research was not what we had expected...
Biggest Weekly Stock Rally Since 2012 Continues Driven By Tumbling Dollar, Dovish Fed; Commodities SurgeSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/09/2015 05:53 -0500
The global risk on mood (which is really anything but, and is merely an unprecedented short covering squeeze as we will report momentarily) launched by an abysmal jobs report one week ago and "validated" yesterday by the surprisingly dovish FOMC minutes, which said nothing new but merely confirmed what most knew, namely that a rate hike is almost certain to not occur until mid-2016 if ever, and accelerated by a Fed-driven collapse in the dollar which overnight has led to a historic 3.4% move in the Indonesian Rupiah the most since 2008, has pushed global stocks even higher in their biggest weekly rally since 2012, despite the start of an earnings season where virtually every single company reporting so far has stumbled on earnings reports that were far worse than even gloomy consensus had expected.
News That Matters
Frequent followers of the German public campaign “Repatriate our Gold“ already know how intensively we have been struggling since 2011 (and longer) with Deutsche Bundesbank to finally – after more than 50 years of external storage of Germany’s gold – get credible transparency regarding this matter. Some progress was brought about recently (2012 disclosure of the whereabouts of Germany´s gold by BuBa; 2013 partial repatriation plan announced by BuBa; 2013 and ongoing through 2015 alleged physical repatriation of approximately 200 tons to date – equaling approximately 10% of Germany’s gold abroad). But real proof and transparency is still lacking from Bundesbank’s side!
- Congress probing U.S. spy agencies' possible lapses on Russia (Reuters)
- Defense Ministers From NATO Hit Out at Russian Action in Syria (WSJ)
- U.S. Rules Out Cooperation With Russia as Moscow Launches First Naval Strikes on Syria (WSJ)
- Man Who Called China's Boom and Bust Says Use This Rally to Sell (BBG)
- For Volkswagen, New Questions Arise on U.S. Injury Reporting (BBG)
- Deutsche Bank May Swell $14 Billion Selloff in China Bank Stakes (BBG)
- Emerging market slowdown hits German exports (FT)
It was supposed to be the day China's triumphantly returned to the markets from its Golden Holiday week off, and with global stocks soaring over 5% in the past 7 days, hopes were that the Shanghai Composite would close at least that much higher and then some, especially with the "National Team" cheerleading on the side and arresting any sellers. Sure enough, in early trading Chinese futures did seem willing to go with the script, and then everything fell apart when a weak Shanghai Composite open tried to stage a feeble rebound into mid-session, and then closed near the day lows even as the PBOC injected another CNY120 bn via reverse repo earlier.
The US and world economies are drifting inexorably into the next recession owing to the deflationary collapse of commodities, capital spending and world trade. These are the inevitable “morning after” consequence of the 20-year global credit binge which has now reached its apogee. The apparent global boom during that period was actually a central bank driven excursion into the false economics of household borrowing to inflate consumption in the DM economies; and frenzied, uneconomic investing to inflate GDP in China and the EM. The common denominator was falsification of financial prices. By destroying honest price discovery in the financial markets, the world’s convoy of money-printing central banks led by the Fed elicited a huge excess of financialization relative to economic output.
RANsquawk Video: BoE October rate decision and minutes preview - Rate and vote split exp. to remain at 0.50% and 8-1 respectively, focus will be on whether the BoE adopt a more dovish stanceSubmitted by RANSquawk Video on 10/06/2015 07:13 -0500
RANSQUAWK WEEK AHEAD - 5th October: BoJ, RBA and BoE are all set to announce their latest rate decision this week, while the FOMC will release the minutes from their September meeting, while Alcoa unofficially kick off earning season on Wall St.Submitted by RANSquawk Video on 10/05/2015 06:53 -0500
· BoJ, RBA and BoE are all set to announce their latest rate decision this week, while the FOMC will release the minutes from their September meeting
· Alcoa unofficially kick off earning season on Wall St., with analysts forecasting the first Y/Y EPS decline since 2009
Following Friday's disastrous payrolls report, which confirmed all the pre-recessionary economic data and signaled that instead of approaching "lift-off" and decoupling from the rest of the world, the US economy is following the emerging markets into a slowdown in what may be the first global, synchronized recession since 2008, the market saw its biggest intraday surge since 2011 and the sharpest short covering squeeze in history, we are happy to announce that the "market" is now solidly back in "bad news is good news" mode.
- After Rough Quarter, Investors Buckle Up (WSJ)
- From heroes to bystanders? Central banks' growth challenge (Reuters)
- Russian Airstrike in Syria Targeted CIA-Backed Rebels, U.S. Officials Say (WSJ)
- Kremlin says Syria air strikes target list of groups, not just Islamic State (Reuters)
- That’s information warfare? Russia accused of killing civilians in Syria (RT)
- Euro zone factory growth eases in August despite modest price rises (Reuters)
- How Glencore's Crazy Month Makes Greek Banks Look Tame (BBG)
In yet another indication that manipulation may well be unspoken (or perhaps even spoken) policy at the BOE, new details regarding the UK Serious Fraud Office's investigation into emergency liquidity auctions conducted during the crisis suggest the central bank may have played a direct role in rigging the bids.