BOE

Futures Flat Ahead Of Yellen As Geopolitical Risks Loom; Fear Barometer Spikes

S&P futures point to a slightly lower open, while Asian and European stocks are likewise modestly in the red. Trading volumes are muted for most markets on Monday with investors spooked by rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the Korean peninsula. It is also a holiday-shortened week in much of the West.

US Futures Rebound Sharply, Erase All Syrian Airstrike Losses

After initially tumbling in the aftermath of the U.S. missile attack on Syria which jolted financial markets, boosting haven assets and temporarily shifting investor focus from today's jobs data , S&P futures have managed to recoup all losses (the Nikkei closed up 0.4% after sliding earlier in the session), with Europe also just fractionally lower and climbing fast.

Are Mexico’s Oil Reserves Almost Depleted?

Mexico’s oil and gas regulator said last week that the country’s proved hydrocarbon reserves will drop by 10.6 percent in 2017. This forecast, coupled with the lower oil production that state company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) reported for yet another year in 2016, is painting a rather bleak picture of Mexico’s reserves.

China Surge, Rising Oil Push Global Stocks Higher; S&P Futures Flat As Fed Minutes Loom

European stocks rebounded after a downbeat start, aided by a return to the post-Euro open momentum ignition in the USDJPY while Asian stocks rose after China shares surged 1.5%, the most since August. For now S&P futures are fractionally in the red, although we expect them to turn progressively higher as US traders get to their desks to frontrun the now traditional "post open" ramp.

Frontrunning: March 31

  • GOP disarray deepens (Reuters)
  • Zuma's Night of Long Knives Risks ANC Split, Credit Rating (BBG)
  • China downplays tensions with U.S. ahead of summit (Reuters)
  • Wall Street’s New Favorite Way to Swap Secrets Is Against the Rules (BBG)
  • EU offers Brexit trade talks, sets tough transition terms (Reuters)

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the consumer confidence report on Tuesday, the third estimate of Q4 GDP on Thursday, and the PCE report as well as Personal Income & Spending data on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week.

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Futures Tumble Below 50DMA As "Trump Trade" Collapses

Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months.

Frontrunning: March 21

  • Gorsuch Strives to Present Himself as Above Political Fray (WSJ)
  • Investigation Could Hurt Trump’s Clout in Congress (WSJ)
  • U.S. to Ban Laptops and Tablets in Cabins of Some Mideast Flights (BBG)
  • Tillerson no-show at NATO renews European disquiet about Trump (Reuters)
  • Don’t Blame Your Social Media Feed for the Growing Political Divide (BBG)
  • High-Frequency Traders Fall on Hard Times (WSJ)

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are the new home sales report on Thursday and the durable goods report on Friday. In addition, there are several scheduled speaking engagements by Fed officials this week, including a speech by Chair Yellen on Thursday.

FX Week Ahead

This week has not been one to savor for USD bulls, with the FOMC rate hike accompanied by a statement which failed to generate the fresh wave of hawkish sentiment markets had positioned for. Fresh US data will therefore be required to drive fresh direction...