The Magic Number Is Revealed: It Costs Central Banks $200 Billion Per Quarter To Avoid A Market CrashSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/21/2014 11:58 -0500
"For over a year now, central banks have quietly being reducing their support. As Figure 7 shows, much of this is down to the Fed, but the contraction in the ECB’s balance sheet has also been significant. Seen from this perspective, a negative reaction in markets was long overdue: very roughly, the charts suggest that zero stimulus would be consistent with 50bp widening in investment grade, or a little over a ten percent quarterly drop in equities. Put differently, it takes around $200bn per quarter just to keep markets from selling off."
And the overnight futures ramp started off so promising.
If the last three days all started with a rout in futures before the US market open only to ramp higher all day, today it may well be the opposite, when shortly after Europe opened it was the ECB's turn to talk stocks higher, when literally within minutes of the European market's open, ECB's Coeure said that:
- COEURE SAYS ECB WILL START WITHIN DAYS TO BUY ASSETS
Which was today's code word for all is clear, and within minutes US futures, which until that moment had languished unchanged, soared by 25 points. So will today be more of the same and whatever early action was directed by the central bankers will be faded into a weekend in which only more bad news can come out of Ebola-land?
It would truly be the crowning achievement of Obama's career if, amazingly, he manages to bankrupt the US shale "miracle" next.
Futures Euphoria Deflated By Latest Batch Of Ugly European News: Germany Can't Exclude "Technical Recession"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/14/2014 05:47 -0500
So far the overnight session has been a mirror image of Monday's, when futures languished at the lows only to ramp higher as soon as Europe started BTFD. Today, on the other hand, we had a rather amusing surge in the AUDJPY as several central banks were getting "liquidity rebates" from the CME to push the global carry-fueled risk complex higher, only to see their efforts crash and burn as Europe's key economic events hit. First, it was the Eurozone Industrial Production, which confirmed that the triple dip is well and here, when it printed -1.8%, below the expected -1.6%, and far below last month's 1.0%. This comes in the month when German IP plunged most since 2009, confirming that this time it's different, and it is Germany that is leading Europe's collapse into the Keynesian abyss not the periphery. And speaking of Germany, at the same time Europe's former growth dynamo released an October ZEW survey of -3.6%, the 10th consecutive decline and well below the 0.0% expected: first negative print since late 2012!
Despite Bank of England's Mark Carney confident overtones that policy-makers must focus on economic developments rather than worry about potential market volatility as they consider exiting stimulus, it appears the esteemed central bank is communicating 'forward guidance' on its money-printing expectations over the next decade... BANK OF ENGLAND SIGNS 10-YEAR BANKNOTE PRINTING CONTRACT WITH DE LA RUE... starting in April 2015 (when US rate hikes might start?)
What if there was some degrees of freedom in the centrally planned capital markets that rational, non-emotional and non-ideologically-laden thinking could shed light on ? Here is such an attempt
Effectively G4 central banks have been "soaking up" government bonds forcing private investors to hold more corporate bonds, and as JPMorgan warns successive QE programs since 2009 have forced private non-bank investors increasingly more overweight credit. From essentially neutral in 2009, non-bank investors are implicitly overweight a record-high 17% which points to more elevated credit spreads than in previous cycles to compensate private non-bank investors from becoming increasingly overweight credit (and accepting the soaring liquidity risks). Is it any wonder Blackrock (and every other corporate bond manager) is freaking out about potential weakness and systemic risk "right under the regulators nose."
Yes the US does not practice laissez faire capitalism. It never did. It manipulates sets intersest rates. The fx market is still understandable and the dollar is moving higher.
Straight forward discussion of the key events next week. Weak on bluster. Strong on analysis. You've been warned.
Look, it's really this simple: Anything that can't go on forever, won't.
There may be one great conspiracy dictating the course of the capital market, but if there is not, what is the near-term outlook for the dollar?
The long awaited moment finally arrived after Scots began voting at 7am BST on whether to break away from the U.K. and end the 307-year union, even as latest opinion polls show the campaign against independence maintaining a narrow lead over those favoring independence. And while the No's are said to have a slim lead into the vote, even if it is really the Undecideds whose vote will determine the final outcome, somewhat surprisingly, the Yes camp got an unexpected boost just hours before the polls opened when 27 year old tennis star, and Scot, Andy Murray declared his support for Scottish independence in an 11th hour intervention on Thursday morning, after years of keeping silent on the issue.
It has been a story of central banks, as overnight Asian stocks reversed nearly two weeks of consecutive declines - the longest stretch since 2001 - and closed higher as the same catalysts that drove US equities higher buoyed the global tide: a combination of Chinese liquidity injection (for the paltry amount of just under $90 billion; "paltry" considering Chinese banks create over $1 trillion in inside money/loans every quarter) and Hilsenrath leaking that despite all the "recovery" rhetoric, the Fed will not be turning hawkish and there will be no change in the Fed language today (perhaps not on the redline but Yellen's news conference at 2:30pm will certainly be interesting), pushed risk higher, if not benefiting US equities much which remains largely unchanged.
If over the weekend we got some terrible economic news out of China, then overnight it was turn for a major disappointment in capital flows, when Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in August crashed by 14%, far below the 0.8% increase expected, attracting just $7.2 billion in FDI, and the lowest in four years. This once again sparked fears of a Chinese hard landing and sent the Shanghai Composite tumbling 1.82%, the biggest drop in six months. In addition to China, there was the German ZEW Survey, which while beating expectations of a 5.0 print, dropped from 8.6 to 6.9 in August, the lowest since 2012. In fact, the gauge has decreased every month since December when it reached a seven-year high. And while there is not much other news today ahead of the blitz assault of data later in the week, including the Fed tomorrow, the TLTRO announcement on Thursday and the Scottish referendum results and the BABA IPO on Friday, we are stunned futures aren't as usual, soaring.