Pizzaflation is creeping through the nation. Inflation is slow, and subtle, and making our favorite things like Pizza unaffordable. Pizzaflation explains the deterioration of the US Dollar in something we all love; Pizza.
The British Pound is now down almost 14% from pre-Brexit spike highs at 1.5018, crashing to 1.3000 for the first time since June 1985. Goldman Sachs sees this renewed leg of weakness extending down to 1.20 within 3 months...
"Had an interesting chat with a senior pm at brewin dolphin yesterday. Bd manages significant pool of uk pensions / charities / endowment funds. Their mandate is long only, real estate bonds shares. Essentially they selling out all the real estate and piling up in iShares ftse etf. Minimum fees, simple transaction, they get 10% return in one week. Everyone going into Blackrock I Shares FTSE ETF."
In its first official easing act, the Financial Policy Committee lowered the countercyclical-capital buffer rate for UK exposures to zero from .5% of risk-weighted assets in a move that it said would raise the capacity for bank lending to households and businesses by as much as £150 billion. "This action reinforces the FPC’s view that all elements of the substantial capital and liquidity buffers that have been built up by banks are to be drawn on, as necessary" the committee said in a statement.
The festering wound involving Italian banks in general and Italy's third largest bank Monte Paschi, just got worse yet again, as the bank which suddenly everyone is focused on extends yesterday’s 14% drop, and is halted in Milan trading after falling 7%, once again dragging down European bank stocks with it, and this time US equity futures are starting to notice.
In today's US holiday-impacted session, the biggest overnight story was the dramatic surge in precious metals, which saw silver briefly soar above $21 following a Chinese short squeeze sending the metal as much as 7% higher overnight, its biggest one day gain since December 1, 2014. As we reported overnight, silver touched a two-year high and gold rallied for a fourth day after the Brexit vote spurred demand for havens. The catalyst is familiar: speculation central banks in some of the world’s leading economies will step up monetary stimulus in the wake of Britain’s decision to leave the European Union.
"Who of the big boys of central banking can realistically make a difference here is unclear to us. The Fed was caught wrong-footed in all of this, between domestic news (weak non-farms) to international. The ECB and BOJ are tapped-out; as in, their actions at this point are delivering more harm than benefit (underperforming equity and credit markets, lower credit issuance, substantial pressure on bank equities). In China, authorities are already dealing with the consequences of reopening the credit spigot earlier this year that reinforced concerns of a credit bubble popping there."
But the destruction of price discovery in the sovereign debt market is not simply an academic curiosity to be jawed about by the few remaining fiscal scolds in the world. To the contrary, it is already having massive toxic consequences in the arenas of fiscal governance and capital markets alike.
Whether it is due to the conclusion of quarter-end window dressing, or due to a more poor manufacturing data out of China overnight, but the new quarter is starting off poorly for risk with Europe flat and US equities lower, while the scramble for safety means that bond yields across the developed world just hit new all time lows as precious metals are surging once again on ongoing speculation central banks will do anything to keep markets propped up and buy up even more assets.
The European Commission has authorized Italy to use government guarantees to create a precautionary liquidity support program for their banks, a spokeswoman for the European Union’s executive arm said, adding that the program was approved under the bloc’s "extraordinary crisis rules for state aid." Prime Minister Matteo Renzi hoped to use a liquidity backstop to contain investor panic, which could result in a run on deposit and affect banks’ liquidity.
The simple - and only - answer, is of course central banks. But for those who need a more "nuanced" answer to present to their portfolio managers who are watching this market move in stunned silence, here is JPM's Adam Crisafulli with the full breakdown of today's latest 1% move higher.