With Wall Street hitting peak vacation season, it is a quiet week for news. The key economic release this week is CPI inflation on Tuesday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. Many will be looking for signs of hawkishness Minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday.
European shares advanced, with gains in automakers helping Germany’s benchmark DAX Index turn positive for the year for the first time. Stocks rose around the world, led by emerging-markets, as oil climbed further after its best week since April and traders pushed back bets on higher U.S. interest rates. S&P futures advance and Asian stocks little changed as rising oil prices bolstered investor sentiment.
In the latest confirmation that the Brexit "doom and gloom" scenarios proposed by experts are unlikely to materialize, moments ago in the latest monthly report from the German Bundesbank, the central bank said that the German economy should expand during summer in line with strong underlying economic trend, while saying that the consequences from Brexit will be limited, at least in the short term.
Even as they buy, credit investors know the good times won't last. In fact, in a paradoxical twist, as BofA reports in its August’s survey of IG and HY market participants, as the ECB and BOE intervene and now directly manipulate the credit market, investors have been inclined to pare down risk.
Dealers, the bedrock of the global monetary system, are hoarding collateral and it shows. That, however, doesn’t fit within the recovery narrative, so the media resorts to the easy and absurd to obscure what “should” not be happening...
The problem for individual investors is the “trap” that is currently being laid between the appearance of strong market dynamics against the backdrop of weak economic and market fundamentals. Ignoring the last two to chase the former has historically not worked out well.
One day after all three US indexes hit record highs for the first time since December 31, 1999, US equity index futures, European stocks and Asian equities are little changed after the Nikkei jumped on the back of a Yen weakness, while China reported disappointing economic data and the PBOC suggested that the flood of new debt is slowing which pushed Chinese stocks higher by 1.6% on hopes of more stimulus.
The summer doldrums continue with another listless overnight session, not helpd by Japan markets which are closed for holiday, as Asian stocks fell fractionally, while European stocks rebounded as oil trimmed losses after the the IEA said pent-up demand would absorb record crude output (something they have said every single month). S&P futures have wiped out almost all of yesterday's losses and were up over 0.2% in early trading.
After yesterday the BOE failed to attract enough selling interest to fully cover its long-maturity QE operation, bond traders were sitting on edge for the results of today's latest "POMO" open market operation, which concluded moments ago, to see if it too would have a shortfall in supply. That did not happen, and instead as the BOE revealed moments ago, there was a substantial GBP 5.51 billion in gilts offered for sale to the BOE, resulting in a comfortable, oversubscribed coverage of 4.71x.
As first reported yesterday, in a striking development, the BOE failed to monetize all the longer-maturity gilts it had hoped to purchase on just the second day of its restarted QE operation, as it encountered something striking: an offerless bond market. Today Wall Street responds.
To quell any speculation that it may be easing off in its "inflation boosting" monetization efforts, moments ago the BOJ "leaked" what its September statement would be, and as Reuters reported the BOJ has "already prepared a preliminary outline of a "comprehensive" assessment of its policies due next month that will maintain a pledge to hit its 2 percent inflation target at the earliest date possible, sources familiar with its thinking said." The general tone would suggest that a tapering of the BOJ's massive stimulus program is unlikely.
Following yesterday's muted action which saw the S&P500 close unchanged, it has been more of the same listless trading overnight, with US equity index futures little changed as the Nikkei fell on the back of a stronger Yen, while government bonds rose and European stocks reversed early gains following the BOE failed bond monetization operation. Crude oil dropped for a second day after Saudi Arabia told OPEC that it pumped a record 10.67 million barrels of oil a day,
Thanks to the ongoing drop in the sterling, another fringe "Brexit benefit" has emerged. As Sky News reports, the slump in the pound since the Brexit vote has produced an immediate boost for UK tourism with flight bookings into the country up on last year, according to a new report.