- "My 60 years of experience tells me the pound will plummet, along with your living standards. The only winners will be speculators" - George Soros - "All the evidence shows that Brexit would be a disaster" - Jacob Rothschild - "You cannot in the end protect people from the economic shock that leaving the EU would bring about." - George Osborne
Whatever the outcome of the Brexit vote this week investors will still be facing the prospect of negative rates and negative yields on a huge range of bonds, massive corporate leverage with worryingly rising delinquencies and of course expensive equity markets and falling profits. And whilst the market preference for the status quo might be celebrated in the short-term, actually when the fog clears all of the problems will still be there.
Despite the surge in risk assets and bookies' odds, opinion polls show the Leave and Remain campaigns still neck and neck ahead of Thursday’s U.K. referendum on EU membership. Here are some key events that could drive market sentiment in the days and weeks ahead.
Global equities rallied and the pound strengthened the most since 2008, soaring by 300 pips since the Friday close as polls signaled the campaign for the U.K to stay in the European Union was gaining momentum. Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged by the most since February as the MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced with S&P 500 futures. Haven assets including the yen, U.S. Treasuries and gold slumped.
Ahead of Thursday's historic Brexit referendum vote, market jitters are bringing back memories of September 16, 1992, when the UK was forced out of the EU’s exchange-rate mechanism, or ERM, as speculators’ borrowing exhausted the central bank’s resources to keep the pound above its floor.
Central bankers should not be treated as wise oracles whose guidance is desperately needed. Instead, we should throw off the tyranny of the PhD’s and embrace the decentralization of power that is desperately needed to allow civilization to thrive. Brexit would be a great way to start.
While it may very well not last and all of yesterday's gains could evaporate instantly if the Brexit vote is set to take place as scheduled, all 10 industry groups in the MSCI All-Country World Index advanced, with the index rising 0.7% trimming the week’s drop 1.6%. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 1.4%. Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed, after equities Thursday snapped their longest losing streak since February. . Oil rose, paring its biggest weekly decline in more than two months. Bond yields around the globe fell.
So to recap - Fed dismal and no change - warns of Brexit, BoJ disappoints with no change - warns of Brexit, BoE does nothing - warns of Brexit, Brexit polls show "Leave" leading... but an England win in Euro2016 and the death of a British MP was enough to turn the entire day around...
Futures on the S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, as U.S. equities are on track to extend losses for a sixth day. Europe's Stoxx 600 fell to a four-month low, sliding 1% for its sixth decline in seven days, and U.S. crude retreated for a sixth day in the longest losing streak since February. Bond yields sank to records in Germany, Australia after Japan as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said next week’s U.K. vote on European Union membership was a factor in the decision to hold interest rates steady. The Yen surged more than 2% as the Bank of Japan refrained from adding any new stimulus,
How low can bond yields go? Every day seems to provide fresh evidence that we really don’t know. But whatever your answer, between the gravitational pull of central bank debt purchases and a slowing global economy, the reality is: probably lower.
The European Central Bank would publicly pledge to backstop financial markets in tandem with the Bank of England should Britain vote to leave the European Union, officials with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. "there will be a statement to do whatever it takes to maintain adequate market liquidity."
The UK EU referendum is suddenly totally dominant in financial markets. The increased focus comes as the leave campaign has gathered steam as 4 polls yesterday afternoon/evening put the 'leave' campaign ahead. As a result of the continued global scramble for safety, German 10Y bunds finally dropped below 0% for the first time ever, while global risk assets are red around the globe.
This week, the market's attention will be mostly focused on this week's two key central bank meetings, namely the Fed on Wednesday and the BOJ on Thursday, although there is a full calendar of economic events also on deck.