Borrowing Costs

Just 3 Things

Record levels denote the point that previously marked the end of a cycle, not the beginning of a new one. This point is often missed by the mainstream media. Record highs of anything, whether it is economic, fundamental or financial data, are warnings signs of late stage events.

Saudi Arabia Reacts To Sept. 11 Bill Veto Override

While so far there has been nothing but a stony silence from Riyadh, some Saudis have bristled, saying the kingdom should curb business and security ties in response. "What would happen if Saudi Arabia froze its cooperation with the United States with regards to counter-terrorism as a response to JASTA?"

Crude Declines As OPEC Deal Doubts Emerge; Futures Roll Over

After oil soared over 5% yesterday, its biggest jump since April, overnight skepticism and doubts have emerged about the viability and compliance with the deal, coupled with a boost in production by non-OPEC producers, and as a result WTI has dipped back under $47, down 0.5%, suggesting that the OPEC surge may be short-lived, and modestly pressuring US equity futures.

Janet Yellen Testimony Live Feed: Five Key Things To Look For

This morning, Janet Yellen testifies before the House Financial Services Committee on financial regulation topics. While there us unlikely to be much talk of monetary policy, it may come up, although most of the lawmakers’ questions are likely to relate to the Fed’s oversight of banks; other questions may touch on the Fed's recent bank commodity oversight push, the November election, and especially the recent Wells scandal.

Futures Fail To Rebound As Deutsche Bank Tries To Comfort Markets That It Is "Fine"

After yesterday's "Hillary rally" in the US, the overnight's session has seen more risk-on sentiment as European stocks advanced, ignoring weakness in Asia as investors followed every twist of shares of beleaguered lender Deutsche Bank, whose CEO last night assured Bill readers that the bank is not seeking a bailout, which however was contradicted by a Zeit article this morning reporting that Germany may seek as much as s 25% "bailout" stake in a worst case scenario.

Chinese Contagion Risks Surge: Banks' Reliance On Each Other For Funding Hits All Time High

China’s smaller banks have never been more reliant on each other for funding, prompting rating companies to warn of contagion risks in any crisis.  "Contagion risks are definitely rising," according to S&P: "The pace of the development is concerning. If this isn’t stopped in time, the central bank will lose some control and flexibility of its monetary policy."

Global Central Bank-Driven Stock Rally Fizzles; Crude Rebounds On Saudi Oil Production Cut Report

Until minutes ago, this week's rebound in global equities appeared to be running out of steam as oil retreated from a two-week high and a dollar slide ended.  However, as noted just around 6am, Reuters reported, citing as it usually does various "anonymous sources", that in a radical departure from its long-held policy of not cutting production, Saudi Arabia was prepared to cut production on condition that Iran freezes output, which led to an instant spike in crude.

Soothing Fed Sends Global Stocks, US Futures, Commodities Higher

Following the Fed's "hawkish hold" and the BOJ's "confused contradiction", global risk (and non-risk) assets got the green light, and as a result stocks and bonds rallied in Asia and Europe, with US equity futures rising another 0.4%, advancing with oil and industrial metals, as iron surged in Chinese trading.

JPM Downgrades Wells Fargo; Expects More Probes "Following Tough Senate Hearings"

One day after what was a rather disastrous hearing for Wells CEO John Stumpf, which culminated with a Senator telling the embattled chief executive he may want to consider going to prison, the bad news continued overnight when the bank that overtook Wells in the "biggest US bank by market cap" category, JPMorgan, downgraded Wells to Netural, cutting its price target from $53.50 to $48.00 as a result of "tough Senate hearings and mounting public scrutiny following the opening of fraudulent accounts."

Frontrunning: September 21

  • Bank of Japan's policy reset muddies markets' risk mood (Reuters)
  • BOJ overhauls policy focus, sets target for government bond yields (Reuters)
  • BOJ Shifts Policy Framework to Targeting Japan’s Yield Curve (BBG)
  • Fed Focus Turns to Dots as Hike Odds Fade: Decision-Day Guide (BBG)
  • Oil jumps after surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories (Reuters)

Global Stocks, US Futures Rebound As Oil Rises, Dollar Drops

Stocks across the board, and US equity futures are broadly in the green this morning as markets shrug off the terror-related events in the NYC area over the weekend.  There wasn’t a single positive “reason” for the green price action but fears about the bond “tantrum” appear to be fading while a stronger dollar helped push oil and the commodity complex higher.