Borrowing Costs

GE stock is down almost 13% over the last 7 years, and this is with record shares being taken off the market.  However, Jeff Immelt thinks he has a solution for this problem after 15 years at the helm of GE. 

“In my 30-year career, it’s one of the most unattractive risk-return propositions that I’ve seen,” DoubleLine's Bonnie Baha says. Between abysmally low yields, heightened rate sensitivity heading into a rate hike cycle, and balance sheet re-leveraging on the part of US corporations, it’s a bad time to be betting on corporate credit.

History is on the market’s side, says DoubleLine's Jeff Gundlach, noting the Fed’s forecast for how much benchmark rates will rise is still too high, even after central bankers lowered their estimates last month. BlackRock’s Jeffrey Rosenberg says the bond market’s too complacent and is poised for a correction, claiming The Fed has "a tremendous ability" to send bond yields higher. But as Bloomberg reports, "if the burden of proof is on anybody, it’s on the Fed," and for now, as Gundlach exclaims, The Fed has "been wrong for so long," that their forecasts have been literally of no value, "the market’s pricing has been closer."

• Political Battle Ramps Up Over Iran Nuclear Deal (WSJ)
• Greece moves to quell default fears, pledges to meet 'all obligations' (Reuters)
• Isolated Greece pivots east to Russia, China and Iran. But will it work? (Telegraph)
• Frustrated officials want Greek premier to ditch Syriza far left (FT)
• Greek political unrest and deepening debt crisis fuel talk of snap election (Guardian)
• Rand Paul’s Challenge: Charting His Own Course (WSJ)
• In Greenspan Conundrum Redux, Odds Are on Bond Traders’ Side (BBG)
• Yemen's Aden suffers amid clashes, aid deliveries delayed (Reuters)
• Record Gasoline Output to Curb Biggest U.S. Oil Glut in 85 Years (BBG)

We are at an important juncture as a global society: either we immediately prioritize a new trajectory focused on creating a positive, functional future or -- by continuing the consumptive, extractive, exploitative status quo -- we will default into a nasty nightmare. What will determine which future path we take is our collective narrative. It's the story we tell ourselves -- who we are, what we value.

Not only did Q1 mark a record quarter for issuance, March supply also hit a record at $143 billion, tying the total put up in May of 2008. It should come as no surprise that Q1 was a banner quarter for corporate debt issuance as struggling oil producers tapped HY markets to stay afloat and companies scrambled to max out the stock-buyback-via-balance-sheet re-leveraging play before the Fed hike rates.

According to Citigroup, the revenues from trading fixed income securities has been decreasing since the end of the global financial crisis, but this trend might very well be reverted soon as investors are desperately trying to protect their assets from erosion.

A number of economists have proposed the implementation of what has been dubbed "QE for the people." They seem to prefer to apply the principle "When in trouble, double." Given the massive mistakes which were made by central banks from Weimar to Bernanke and the relentless attempts to use the printing press to finance governments, it probably shouldn't take much to convince people of alternatives, and not more of the same, right?

As JPM notes, soaring equity prices have had the effect of altering investors’ asset allocations, effectively tipping the balance towards equities even as money flows into bond funds. "The more equity prices increase, driven by either hedge funds or investors with low equity allocations, such as Japanese pension funds the higher the incentive by other investors who are already very overweight equities to buy bonds to prevent their bond allocation from falling too low."

We're just a little over two weeks into PSPP and signs are already beginning to show that the ECB is effectively breaking the market. "The soaring cost of borrowing government bonds in secured lending markets highlights the distortions caused by the ECB's asset-purchase scheme, which analysts say could clog up Europe's financial system," Reuters notes.

"There's a liquidity conundrum in fixed income markets facing policy makers and investors: how it’s resolved will have long term investment implications across banks, asset managers and infrastructure players," a new report from Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman notes. The joint effort is an attempt to dig deep into the all important issue of credit market liquidity (or lack thereof) and determine the short term and long term implications.

"...markets can turn from tranquil to turbulent in short order. It is worth noting that in 2006 volatility was low, and companies were generating record pro?t margins, until the business cycle came to an abrupt halt due to events that many people had not anticipated. Although investor appetite for equities may remain robust in the near term, because of positive equity fundamentals and low yields in other asset classes, history shows high valuations carry inherent risk... potential ?nancial stability risks arising from leverage, compressed pricing of risk, interconnectedness, and complexity deserve further attention and analysis."

The hunt for yield is driving investors into riskier debt at just the wrong time. With liquidity in the corporate bond market drying up thanks to new regulations, the rush to the exit is likely to be "very unpleasant," one analyst says.