Here comes stagflation. Turkey's biggest headache, its crashing currency, will soon translate into another major problem. According to two senior economy officials, inflation could reach double digits in the first quarter for the first time in almost five years as a result of the lira's falls, even as the government's budget deficit just hit a record high.
Sterling fell, equities slid, Chinese markets got a helping government intervention hand again, and gold climbed over concerns U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May is prepared to lead Britain out of the European Union’s single market and as the U.S. President-elect suggested other countries could break from the bloc.
Moments ago DBRS announced that, just as warned earlier in the week, the rating agency stripped Italy of its last A-rating, when it downgraded italy from A (low) to BBB (high), in the process raising the cost of borrowing ECB funds for the country's struggling lenders.
If there is any economic assumption that goes unquestioned, it's the notion that profits will remain robust for the foreseeable future. This assumption ignores the tidal forces that are now flowing against profits.
"In our estimation the investment climate for risk assets after the election looks a lot like the environment before the election: risky. And while there are many valid reasons to cheer a change in tax policy, saving the U.S. and global economy from its past excesses is not one of them."
"The news conference was a far cry from the market friendly, pro-growth "presidential" comments that Trump delivered at his acceptance speech," wrote analysts at Westpac, adding it left a "veritable laundry list" of questions unanswered.
Global stocks were fractionally lower in early European trading, closed Asia mixed, while S&P futures were unchanged, as the dollar fell for a second day on concerns ahead of Trump's press conference on Wednesday. Oil rebounded after its Monday plunge, while commodity metals like iron ore rose limit up in Chinese trading.
Taken together recent economic data paint a picture of a global economy that’s finally returning to the kind of solid growth and steady, positive inflation that most people consider both normal and good. Unfortunately, the reason for the improvement is emphatically not good: In 2016 the world borrowed a huge amount of money and spent the proceeds. The result is “growth,” but not sustainable growth.
"Will “Trumponomics” change the course of the U.S. economy? We certainly hope so as any improvement that filters down to the bottom 80% of the country will be beneficial. However, as investors, we must understand the difference between a “narrative-driven” advance and one driven by strengthening fundamentals. The first is short-term and leads to bad outcomes. The other isn’t, and doesn’t. "
According to the Institute for International Finance, total global debt as of Q3 2016 once again rose sharply, increasing by $11 trillion in the first 9 months of the year, hitting a new all time high of $217 trillion. As a result, late in 2016, global debt levels are now roughly 325% of the world's gross domestic product.
Indian banks announced sharp cuts to their lending rates after a recent surge in deposits, raising hopes that lower borrowing costs will help spark credit growth in Asia's third-largest economy, at the same time as the December PMI survey showed the first contraction in India's manufacturing sector in one year, raising doubts about the world's fastest growing economy.