Fed Vice Chair Yellen Says Scope Remains For Further Policy Accommodation Through Additional Balance Sheet ActionSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/06/2012 20:08 -0400
That former San Fran Fed chairman Janet Yellen would demand more easing is no surprise: she used to do it all the time. That Fed Vice Chairman, and Bernanke's second in command, Janet Yellen just hinted that she is "convinced that scope remains for the FOMC to provide further policy accommodation either through its forward guidance or through additional balance-sheet actions", and that "while my modal outlook calls for only a gradual reduction in labor market slack and a stable pace of inflation near the FOMC's longer-run objective of 2 percent, I see substantial risks to this outlook, particularly to the downside" is certainly very notable, and confirms everyone's worst dream (or greatest hope assuming they have a Schwab trading platform or Bloomberg terminal) - more cue-EEE is coming to town.
Thus we have the world’s three most important Central banks as well as the global economy’s “economic miracle” retreating from aggressive monetary intervention.
- Spain Seeks Joint Bank Effort as Pressure Rises on Merkel (Bloomberg)
- Banks Cut Cross-Border Lending Most Since Lehman: BIS (Bloomberg)
- Shirakawa Bows to Yen Bulls as Intervention Fails (Bloomberg)
- Merrill Losses Were Withheld Before Bank of America Deal (NYT)
- Investors Brace for Slowdown (WSJ)
- China's lenders ordered to check bad loans (China Daily)
- Obama Seeks Way Out of Jobs Gloom (WSJ)
- Noda Reshuffles Japan Cabinet in Bid for Support on Sales Tax (Bloomberg)
- China to open the market further (China Daily)
- Australian Industry Must Adapt to High Currency, Hockey Says (Bloomberg)
- Tax-funded projects to be more transparent (China Daily)
"Rather than focusing on lowering already epically low rates, governments that enjoy such low borrowing costs can improve their creditworthiness by borrowing more not less."
Confused by the latest developments, headlines, stories, counterstories, denials, counterdenials and rumors, but mostly prayers out of Europe? Here is your one stop shop of everything that has transpired in the Eurocrisis most recently.
This is the state of affairs in Europe: bankrupt nations trying to bailout bankrupt banks or looking for bailouts from funds that are backed by other bankrupt nations.What could go wrong?
Gene Arensberg of the Got Gold Report says that the COT data “suggests that dips for gold and silver should be exceedingly well bid just ahead. Indeed, the structure of the COT is about as bullish as we have seen it for silver futures.” The supply demand fundamentals remain very sound with gold demand expected to exceed supply again this year, according to the World Gold Council who have said that gold has bottomed or close to bottoming. Gold will extend annual gains for a 12th year as bullion is “near” a bottom and demand will keep exceeding mine output, according to the World Gold Council. Mine production will grow 3% this year from last year’s 2,800 metric tons, while demand may be unchanged or slightly lower from a record 4,400 tons, said Marcus Grubb, managing director of the WGC in an Bloomberg interview in Tokyo. Mine supplies will remain in a deficit “for a foreseeable future,” Grubb said. Bullion is “near to the bottom at current prices, indicating gold will move back up again,” he said. Recycling has risen to make up for the gap between demand and mine output, he said. “Some of the drivers of the increase in demand are structured, central banks for example, the rise of Chinese demand and the wealth increase in Asia, including India and China as well as smaller economies,” he said. Central banks have increased gold purchases on concern about the dollar, the euro and the sovereign debts, Grubb said. The banks’ net purchases last year were the most since 1964. In 2010, they turned to a net buyer for the first time in 15 years.
We know the U.S. is a big and liquid (though not really very transparent) market. We know that the rest of the world — led by Europe’s myriad issues, and China’s bursting housing bubble — is teetering on the edge of a precipice, and without a miracle will fall (perhaps sooner, rather than later). But we also know that America is inextricably interconnected to this mess. If Europe (or China or both) disintegrates, triggering (another) global default cascade, America will be stung by its European banking exposures, its exposures to global energy markets and global trade flows. Simply, there cannot be financial decoupling, not in this hyper-connected, hyper-leveraged world.
All of this suggests a global crash or proto-crash will be followed by a huge global money printing operation, probably spearheaded by the Fed. Don’t let the Europeans fool anyone, either — Germany will not let the Euro crumble for fear of money printing. When push comes to shove they will print and fiscally consolidate to save their pet project (though perhaps demanding gold as collateral, and perhaps kicking out some delinquents). China will spew trillions of stimulus money into more and deeper malinvestment (why have ten ghost cities when you can have fifty? Good news for aggregate demand!).
Update: sure enough "EU says accommodative ECB has little scope for more stimulus"
In a headline that is far less than meets the eye, we read the following:
- EU WILLING TO `ENVISAGE' DIRECT ESM BANK RECAPITALIZATIONS
- EURO ZONE SHOULD MOVE TOWARDS BANKING UNION
As a reminder, this is the EU... not the ECB... and not Germany. The same EU which has for a while now been pushing for Germany to foot the bill. The same EU which without Germany's funding agreement, is a faceless zombie. Recall yesterday's Reuters story that made the rounds: EU proposes cross-border bank rescues. and which as Reuters admitted is "likely to upset some members, particularly Germany." Same here. As expected the record number of EUR shorts send the currency into the sky, but we expect it to come right back down once it is understood that Germany has yet to say anything on this plan.
While most of the early action today was driven by a baseless rumor that the ECB would announce some magical recapitalization plan that would put everything back into its normal (by this we mean somehow sustainable) place, the alleged time when Draghi would make such an announcement came and went... and nothing. Instead, the ECB, using the FT as its mouthpiece, came out late in the day, however not with news that Europhiles wanted to hear. As a reminder, as part of the proposed Bankia nationalization scheme, Spain would inject Spanish debt into the insolvent entity, thereby allowing it to pledge the debt for ECB repo cash. Or so the thinking went. This was, in effect, Spain's bluff. The ECB has just called it.
All you need to read and some more.
- JPMorgan dips into cookie jar to offset "London Whale" losses: firm has sold $25 billion to offset CIO losses (Reuters)
- Storied Law Firm Dewey Files Chapter 11 (WSJ)
- The European "Wire Run" - Southern Europeans wire cash to safer north (Reuters)
- Bankia Tapping Depositors for Bonds Leaves Spain on Bailout Hook (Bloomberg)
- Glitches halt new Goldman trade platform (FT) such as reporting prices and seeing trading spreads collapse?
- Japan, China To Launch Yen-Yuan Direct Trading June 1 (WSJ)
- Another fault line? Italy Quake Kills Nine in North of Country (Bloomberg) shortly following another Italian quake
- RIM Writedown Risked With $1 Billion Inventory (Bloomberg)
- China’s Wage Costs Threaten Foreign Investment, EU Chamber Says (Bloomberg)
- Dollar Scarce as Top-Quality Assets Shrink 42% (Bloomberg)