Borrowing Costs

It's The Debt, Stupid - Massive Borrowing Binge Producing Fake Recovery

Taken together recent economic data paint a picture of a global economy that’s finally returning to the kind of solid growth and steady, positive inflation that most people consider both normal and good. Unfortunately, the reason for the improvement is emphatically not good: In 2016 the world borrowed a huge amount of money and spent the proceeds. The result is “growth,” but not sustainable growth.

3 Things: Policy Hopes, Consumer-Spending Puppies, & Tax-Cut Rainbows

"Will “Trumponomics” change the course of the U.S. economy? We certainly hope so as any improvement that filters down to the bottom 80% of the country will be beneficial. However, as investors, we must understand the difference between a “narrative-driven” advance and one driven by strengthening fundamentals. The first is short-term and leads to bad outcomes. The other isn’t, and doesn’t. "

As Cash Shortage Leads To Manufacturing Contraction, Economic Shockwaves, Indian Banks Slash Interest Rates

Indian banks announced sharp cuts to their lending rates after a recent surge in deposits, raising hopes that lower borrowing costs will help spark credit growth in Asia's third-largest economy, at the same time as the December PMI survey showed the first contraction in India's manufacturing sector in one year, raising doubts about the world's fastest growing economy.

Global Debt Sales Hit A Record $6.6 Trillion In 2016

Courtesy of record low rates throughout most of 2016, overall debt issuance in the year rose to just over $6.6 trillion, breaking the previous annual record set in 2006. Corporations accounted for more than half of the $6.6 trillion, while the rest included sovereign bonds sold through syndication, US and international agencies, mortgage-backed securities and covered bonds.

Pending Home Sales Tumble As Surging Mortgage Rates Paralyze Housing Market

"The budget of many prospective buyers last month was dealt an abrupt hit by the quick ascension of rates immediately after the election,” NAR chief economist Larry Yun said. "Already faced with climbing home prices and minimal listings in the affordable price range, fewer home shoppers in most of the country were successfully able to sign a contract."

Chinese Interbank Funding Freezes Again As Overnight Repo Hits 33%

While traders around the world slept, China's banking system suffered another mini cardiac arrest when the overnight repo rate traded on Shanghai Stock Exchange soared as much as 30.87% to 33%, the highest since September 29, before closing at 18.55%.

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Futures Unchanged In Thin Pre-Holiday Tape; Italian Bank Bailout Lifts European Shares

European stocks halted two days of declines, with the Stoxx 600 fractionally in the green and Italy’s bonds climbing after Monte Paschi requested a bailout and Italy pledged to provide support for its other ailing lenders. S&P futures were little changed among extremely thin volumes while Chinese stocks dropped amid concerns on higher borrowing costs.