Brazil

Global Economic Growth Is All About China... Nothing But China

Since 2000, China has been the nearly singular force for growth in global energy consumption and economic activity.  However, this article will make it plain and simple why China is exiting the spotlight and unfortunately, for global economic growth, there is no one else to take center stage.

Frontrunning: February 15

  • World stocks at 21-month highs on Yellen, U.S. outlook (Reuters); Dollar notches longest run of gains in five years before CPI data (Reuters)
  • Nervous About the ACA, GOP Divisions Emerge Over Repeal Effort (BBG)
  • Flynn Probed by FBI Over Calls With Russian Official (WSJ)
  • Russia Questions Mount for Trump White House Reeling From Flynn Fallout (BBG)
  • Trump knew for weeks aide was misleading over Russia (Reuters)

Fitch Warns Trump Administration Could Lead To Global Economic Disaster

"US policy predictability has diminished, with established international communication channels and relationship norms being set aside and raising the prospect of sudden, unanticipated changes in US policies with potential global implications. In Fitch's view, the present balance of risks points toward a less benign global outcome."

US Trade Deficit In 2016 Was The Biggest In Four Years

While the good news is that for December the US trade deficit narrowed modestly to $44.3 billion, better than expected, the bad news is that for all of 2016, the goods and services deficit was $502.3 billion, up $1.9 billion from $500.4 billion in 2015, and the biggest deficit going back to 2012.

India Is Not The Next China

"Intellectuals should engage in some self-reflection on why they have been consistently wrong about India... There is no point in holding out much hope for India. Rather, it is ever easier to conclude that it is on the way to becoming the next banana republic, similar to neighboring countries such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar or Nepal."

As Brazil Unemployment Hits Record High, Rio's Murder Rate Soars

The homicide rate in Rio de Janeiro climbed by 20% in 2016 from the previous year, as violence soared in the Brazilian metropolis amid rising unemployment and sharp cuts in public security budgets. Worse even than Chicago, 5,033 people were murdered in Rio, during the year, up from 4,200 in 2015 and unfortunately it is set to get even worse.

A Time For Caution

"We have argued the current monetary regime is in its evanescence, and that the Fed is trying to raise rates to attract global wealth to dollars and dollar-denominated assets as global leverage, demand and output growth declines. If we are right, then we should not expect other economies to sit by idly... which keep us cautious on equities, bullish on Treasuries and gold, and negative on credit:"

Frontrunning: January 30

  • Trump aides call travel ban success despite broad criticism (Reuters)
  • Trump’s Immigration Ban Promises Constitutional Showdown (BBG)
  • Trump Team Kept Plan for Travel Ban Quiet (WSJ)
  • Trump Era May Mean Fireworks on Fed Days (BBG)
  • Bannon Seizes a Security Role From Generals (NYT)
  • Don't let Trump embarrass our queen, say a million Britons (Reuters)