Brazil

While it is unclear whether it is due to the rare event that no central bank stepped in overnight with a massive liquidity injection or because the USDJPY tracking algo hasn't been activated (moments ago Abe's deathwish for the Japanese economy made some more progress with the USDJPY hitting new mult-year highs just shy of 113.6, on its way to 120 and a completely devastated Japanese economy), but European equities have traded in the red from the get-go, with investor sentiment cautious as a result of a disappointing the Chinese manufacturing report. More specifically, Chinese Manufacturing PMI printed a 5-month low (50.8 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 51.1)), with new orders down to 51.6 from 52.2, new export orders at 49.9 from 50.2 in September. Furthermore, this morning’s batch of Eurozone PMIs have failed to impress with both the Eurozone and German readings falling short of expectations (51.4 vs Exp. 51.8, Last 51.8), with France still residing in contractionary territory (48.5, vs Exp and Last 47.3).

• "Soaring consumer confidence" - How the Economy Is Stoking Voter Anger at Incumbent Governors (WSJ)
• Euro zone deflation worries shield German Bunds from upbeat Fed (Reuters)
• Greece’s Euro Dilemma Is Back as Minister Sees Volatility (BBG)
• Ukraine gas supplies in doubt as Russia seeks EU payment deal (Reuters)
• Sterling Lads Chats Show FX Traders Matching Fix Orders (BBG)
• NATO Tracks Large-Scale Russia Air Activity in Europe (WSJ)
• U.K. SFO Charges Ex-Tullett Prebon Broker in Libor-Rigging Probe (BBG)
• Jerusalem on edge after shooting of rabbi (FT)
• Israeli police kill Palestinian suspected of shooting far-right activist (Reuters)
• Samsung seeks smartphone revamp to arrest profit slide (Reuters)

Based on the lessons of history, all empires collapse eventually; thus, the probability that the US empire will collapse can be set at 100% with a great deal of confidence. The question is, When? (Everyone keeps asking that annoying question.)

The Swiss establishment has been reliant upon the public’s ignorance, but now they are up against a formidable opponent in Egon von Greyerz. Not only that, but they can clearly see that, as elsewhere around the world, the public is fast becoming disenchanted with the status quo; and that is potentially very dangerous for these people. What is important to understand here is that if the initiative passes it will be part of the Swiss constitution IMMEDIATELY - as some are suggesting. This means that the government and parliament cannot touch it. Only another referendum can change it. This is proper democracy for you. The closer we get to the vote on November 30, the bigger this story is going to become, and the bigger it becomes, the higher the chance that the yes vote wins. Should that happen, it will undoubtedly set off alarm bells throughout the gold market, as yet more physical gold will need to be repatriated and another sizeable, price-insensitive buyer will enter the marketplace.

For those living in Cleveland, where home prices rose a tiny 0.8% compared to last year (a number which is sliding every month), the latest dead housing cat bounce is almost over, and with the release of the September, or at the latest, October numbers, expect the first Top 20 US MSA to go back into annual price decline for the first time in two years. Those living in America's other cities are safe, for now. Then again, while still rising at a comfortable upper-single digit pace, all California cities as well as Las Vegas, are about to hit a brick wall, as the Y/Y pace of price increases is now grinding to a halt.

If yesterday's markets closed broadly unchanged following all the excitement from the latest "buy the rumor, sell the news" European stress test coupled with a quadruple whammy of macroeconomic misses across the globe, then today's overnight trading session has been far more muted with no major reports, and if the highlight was Kuroda's broken, and erroneous, record then the catalyst that pushed the Nikkei lower by 0.4% was a Bloomberg article this morning mentioning that lower oil prices could mean the BoJ is forced to "tone down or abandon its outlook for inflation." This comes before the Bank of Japan meeting on Friday where the focus will likely be on whether Kuroda says he is fully committed to keeping current monetary policy open ended and whether or not he outlines a target for the BoJ’s asset balance by the end of 2015; some such as Morgan Stanely even believe the BOJ may announce an expansion of its QE program even if most don't, considering the soaring import cost inflation that is ravaging the nation and is pushing Abe's rating dangerously low. Ironically it was the USDJPY levitation after the Japanese session, which launched just as Europe opened, moving the USDJPY from 107.80 to 108.10, that has managed to push equity futures up 0.5% on the usual: nothing.

Just as we warned last night was indicated by the Japanese market's Brazil ETFs, so the IBOVESPA has opened down over 6% this morning on very heavy volume following the 'disappointing for the bulls' electionvictory of Dilma Rousseff. Despite her associations with Petrobras (which may have suggested it bounced), the favorite Jim Chanos short is being crushed, down 14% at the open. The Real is tumbling too, breaking above 2.54 to its weakest against the USD since Dec 2008.

• White House questions new Ebola rules, nurse plans to sue (Reuters)
• States stand firm on Ebola quarantines despite White House pressure (Reuters)
• Rousseff Naming Brazil Finance Minister Key to Regain Trust (BBG)
• Ukraine leader wins pro-West mandate but wary of Russia (Reuters)
• Single Firm Holds More Than 50% of Copper in LME Warehouses (WSJ)
• Treasury Liquidity Squeeze Seen as Dealer Shut Off Machine (BBG)
• CVS follows Rite-Aid, shuts off Apple Pay (USAToday)
• Oil Speculators Bet Wrong as Rebound Proves Fleeting (BBG)
• Draghi Sets Stimulus Pace as ECB Reveals Covered-Bond Purchases (BBG)
• German Ifo Business Confidence Drops for Sixth Month (BBG)

So far US equity futures are flat to modestly higher on the 'disappointing' news that Rousseff was re-elected in Brazil. USDJPY has given up its hope-based gains and is lower (implying a 4-5 point drop in S&P Futures that is not there yet). Brazilian stocks (trading in Japanese ETFs) are down almost 6% in early trading on heavy volume as the pro-business hope-driven rally has been almost entirely given back.

A person might think that oil prices would be fairly stable. Prices would set themselves at a level that would be high enough for the majority of producers, so that in total producers would provide enough–but not too much–oil for the world economy. The prices would be fairly affordable for consumers. And economies around the world would grow robustly with these oil supplies, plus other energy supplies. Unfortunately, it doesn’t seem to work that way recently. Here are at least a few of the issues involved.

The week ahead, as if it mattered.

Instead of a global recovery, a sudden, broad consumer slowdown – with a plunge in China.

What do an old German bank note, a current $100 bill, and an apple all have in common? The answer, according to ConvergEx's Nick Colas, is that these simple objects can tell us much about the current investment scene, ranging from Europe’s economic challenges to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s attempts to reduce unemployment. Colas takes an “object-ive” approach to analyzing the current investment landscape by describing 10 common items and how they shape our perceptions of reality. The other objects on our list: a hazmat suit, a house in Orlando, a barrel of oil, a Rolex watch, a butterfly, a heating radiator in Berlin, and a smartphone.

It will be the plotline of scary stories parents tell their children for decades to come: in Q1 2014, the US economy was supposed to grow 3%... and then it snowed. This led to a -2% collapse in the world's largest economy. Yes, inconceivably heavy snowfall (in the winter), and frigid temperatures (in the winter), were the reason for a $100+ billion swing in US GDP. Well, as the following chart from DB's Torsten Slok shows, of the roughly $2 trillion in GDP the global economy is expected to grow in 2015, about 90% of that is expected to come from China and the US!