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What Keeps Goldman Up At Night About 2017

Between China, credit markets, financial conditions, political uncertainty, the consequences of Brexit, the presidential elections, global trade, the risk of sharp reflation, and the impotence of central banking, here are the top things that keep Goldman Sachs up at night about 2017.

How To Invest In The New World Order

The boom turns to bust as the Eurodollar market breaks. If the cycle gets out of hand, as it did from 2008 onwards, banking solvency is not only limited to local emerging market banks, but to the international banking community at large. This is exactly where we are at now and if history repeats itself, which we believe it will, a new financial crisis is brewing just under the surface as the dollar moves into its second leg.

Goldman Sachs' 2016 Review (Crossword-Style)

The year began with a perfect storm of worries that had become all too familiar already in 2015. Oil prices plunged and fears of faltering growth and a sharp depreciation of China’s currency escalated, driving disruptive sell-offs in credit and other risk assets. Confidence in global growth faltered, particularly after an anemic US GDP report for Q1. But oh, how the world has changed...

Dave Collum's 2016 Year In Review - "And Then Things Got Really Weird..."

"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."

Frontrunning: December 22

  • Fingerprints of Tunisian suspect in Berlin attack found on truck door (Reuters)
  • Germany Ill-Prepared for Terror Fight, Critics Say (WSJ)
  • Monte Paschi Will Need a Huge State Rescue (BBG)
  • Trump denounces attack, vows tough immigration plan (AP)
  • Trump’s New Appointments Shake Up Trade, Regulation (WSJ)

Frontrunning: December 21

  • Futures little changed after Dow, Nasdaq hit records (Reuters); Europe Stocks’ Rally Dims as Banks Drop; Oil Gains (BBG)
  • Monte dei Paschi says could run out of liquidity after four months (Reuters)
  • Spanish Banks Lose EU Case on Mortgage Interest Repayments (BBG)
  • Russia says trust needed for global oil output deal to be success (Reuters)
  • U.S. plays down absence from Moscow talks on Syria, says not 'sidelined' (Reuters)

Open Letter To Bavaria Minister-President Horst Seehofer

"I would like to commend you on your opposition to mass uncontrolled immigration into Europe. One would think that it would be trivial to praise politicians – who are elected to uphold law and order, meaning our culture and values – for doing so, but these are the times we are living in."

2016 Year In Review

We started this year with the economy deteriorating and finished it with the second interest rate increase in ten years. There were a lot of ups and downs along the way, but ultimately 2016 was defined by three key story-lines:  1) Brexit 2) The Presidential Election 3) Fed Policy. The first two events were votes that shocked the world. The stock market’s reaction to each was arguably even more shocking. 

Maduro Halts Cash Ban Amid "International Sabotage" Conspiracy Theory; Blames Obama, US Treasury

Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro suspended the elimination of the nation’s 100 bolivar bill until Jan. 2 after the government’s decision to pull its largest denomination note out of circulation left the country short of cash, sparking violent protests and looting. Maduro said Venezuelans were "victims of international sabotage," exclaiming "US, Obama are to blame for financial attacks, US Treasury ordered new bills halted."

Venezuela Deploys National Guard As Venezuelans Protest Worthless Cash

Protests and looting broke out in parts of Venezuela on Friday as desperate and cashless Venezuelans, angry that the government hasn’t exchanged their voided bank notes, rose up. The riots were quickly put down, however, when National Guard troops were deployed to put down the unrest.

What's Driving Rates?

While the bump in rates has been fastened to the recent election of Donald Trump, due to hopes of a deficit expansion program (read: more debt) and infrastructure spending which should foster economic growth and inflation, it doesn’t explain the global selling of U.S. Treasuries.