A story of sinking moral, economic hazard, ballooning debt debt, runaway inflation and scandals!
So Wall Street, US Big Oil and the proverbial “American interests” win this round at the circus – thanks to the, once again proverbial, vassal/comprador elites. Chevron execs are already salivating with the prospect of laying their hands on the pre-salt oil deposits; that was already promised by a trusted vassal in the Brazilian opposition. The coup goes on. The real hyenas haven’t yet pounced. So it's far from over.
Mind the terminal growth assumption. The warning signs are everywhere that what lies on the other side is not a world of 24.3X valuations.
With feces-infested waterways, Zika-carrying mosquitoes, a collapsing economy, and political corruption that runs from top to bottom, Brazil is in trouble. But just a few short weeks ahead of The Olympics, the people are revolting as Sao Paulo state governor Geraldo Alckmin warns "Rio de Janeiro is close to social collapse" after state payments to retirees have not been made. Of course, none of this matters as long as Ibovespa is soaring and Real is strengthening.
Almost exactly two years ago, in April 2014, Greece issued €2.5 billion in 5 year bond yielding around 5%, which was met with huge investor interest and ended up being 8x oversubscribed. Fast forward to today when another former shutout from global bond markets, Argentina, is in the FT's words, "on the cusp of one of the most anticipated comebacks in recent history, as the Latin American country ends a 15-year exile from the international debt market with a multibillion-dollar sale." This issue is likewise oversubscribed, and according to Reuters there are already $40 billion in roders for the $15 billion offering.
The news of Dilma's impeachment vote kneejerk'd stocks and the real higher overnight as the almost unbelievable gains in the circling-the-economic-drain nation's stock and FX markets extended among the "blood on the streets" dip-buyers. However, things have turned around rather quickly and it appears investors are aggressively selling the news as the collapse of government is suddenly seen as a negative...
Failure to proceed with crude output freeze plan seen as a "serious blow" to oil-market sentiment by Energy Aspects; Barclays expects mounting tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran to boost volatility. Separately, Kuwait oil workers strike viewed as price-supportive. Here, courtesy of Bloomberg, is a summary of what analysts have said so far on meeting’s outcome as well as comments on Kuwait:
Following yesterday's OPEC "production freeze" meeting in Doha which ended in total failure, where in a seemingly last minute change of heart Saudi Arabia and specifically its deputy crown prince bin Salman revised the terms of the agreement demanding Iran participate in the freeze after all knowing well it won't, oil crashed and with it so did the strategy of jawboning for the past 2 months had been exposed for what it was: a desperate attempt to keep oil prices stable and "crush shorts" while global demand slowly picked up. And whether it is central banks, or chronic BTFDers, just 12 hours after oil opened for trading with a loud crash, the commodity has nearly wiped out all losses, and both brent and WTI were down barely 2%, leading to both European stocks and US equity futures virtually unchanged on the session.
Relentless deterioration meets stunning overcapacity.
While the official voting process continues and still about another 40 or so votes are needed before the formal threshold to impeach Dilma Rousseff of 342 is crossed, moments ago the leader of Rousseff's lower house party, Gumaraes, threw in the towel and admitted the vote is lost.
There are many infamous con games that have been foisted upon the public for millennia. As with any con game the perpetrator knows it’s all a con. In other words, “Duh!” Yet, if you listen closely to both past as well as present Fed. members you can’t help but notice by way of their current arguments, as well as, proposals for future monetary policy. The one’s who’ve truly bought into “the con” is: themselves!
"How do you know this is just a short squeeze, and not the beginning of something much more substantial? While equities are trying to send a bullish tune, the 200 day moving average is now trending down for S&P, Dax and the Nikkei. This is not bullish. Furthermore, yield curves in the US, Japan and Europe have flattened. This is not bullish. Yen is rallying. This is not bullish. We have seen substantial covering by the market. This is not bullish."
Those that were hoping for an “economic renaissance” in the United States got some more bad news this week. It turns out that the U.S. economy is in significantly worse shape than the experts were projecting. Retail sales unexpectedly declined in March, total business sales have fallen again, and the inventory to sales ratio has hit the highest level since the last financial crisis. When you add these three classic recession signals to the 19 troubling numbers about the U.S. economy that we wrote about last week, it paints a very disturbing picture.
Following Monday's decision by a special committee to commence the impeachment process against president Dilma Rousseff, all attention had been focused on the number of Congressional votes that the pro-impeachment movement would have ahead Sunday's critical vote. As a reminder, impeachment would require two-thirds support, or 342 of the 513 lower-house lawmakers, to send the case to the Senate. Then, moments ago, Brazil's Folha newspaper reported that this critical 342 threshold had been met.