Misunderstanding The Real Problem: An Updated Version Of The "Peak Oil" Story

The amount of oil (or for that matter, any other resource) isn’t a fixed amount. If the price can be made to rise to a very high level, the quantity that can be extracted will also tend to rise–in fact, by a rather large amount. The “catch” is that wages for the vast majority of workers don’t rise at the same time. As a result, goods made with high-priced oil soon become too expensive for workers to afford, and the economy falls into recession. The result is prices that fall below the cost of production. Thus, the limit on oil supply is not the amount of oil in the ground; instead, it is how high oil prices can rise, without causing serious recession.

America's Dangerous Game Of Intrigue Inside International Organizations

There is a bull in the china shop of international diplomacy and it wears the ugly and discredited attire of Uncle Sam. The Obama administration has decided that the halls, offices, and conference rooms of international organizations are acceptable battlefields to wage propaganda and sanctions wars.

Frontrunning: August 5

  • Expected solid job gains seen as boost to economy (Reuters)
  • Oil prices slip as short-covering rally fizzles (Reuters)
  • Hillary Clinton’s Lead Over Donald Trump Widens to 9 Points, Poll Shows (WSJ)
  • Justice Department Officials Raised Objections on U.S. Cash Payment to Iran (WSJ)
  • Terrorist Suspects in Europe Got Welfare Benefits While Plotting Attacks (WSJ)

Riots In Rio: Police Unleash Tear-Gas, Rubber Bullets As Poor Brazilians Block Olympic Torch Route

Just 24 hours before the opening ceremony of the Rio Olympics, police have been forced to use tear-gas and rubber bullets to clear protesters from the path of the Olympic torch through a poor suburb of Rio de Janeiro. As The Guardian reports, police said anti-government protesters in Duque de Caixas, on Rio’s north side, threw rocks and blocked the torch’s path; and 3 people (including a 10-year-old girl) were injured.

S&P Futures Flat As Europe, Asia Lifted By Banks, Yen; All Eyes On The Bank Of England

In a mostly quiet session, European and Asian stocks rose, pushed higher by financial stocks and the USDJPY which initially dipped on some hawkish comments by BOJ deputy governor Iwata, only to rebound later in the session, lifting the Nikkei 1.1%, while the Stoxx 600 rose 0.4% led higher by the banking sector. S&P futures are unchnaged after yesterday's last hour ramp. The key event is the BOE decision due in half an hour.

What Will Hillary Do? Goldman Ranks Russia 'Best Olympian' Nation Ever (Over #2 USA)

While exceptional USA is heralded as savior of the world and "greatest nation ever in the history of earth," by Hillary Clinton, it appears Goldman Sachs disagrees... when it comes to The Olympics. From an 'efficiency' perspective,  controlling for how populous, rich (income per capita), and 'efficient' they are, Russia is the greatest olympic sporting nation (and ironically Greece is worst)...

Frontrunning: August 3

  • European bank rebound not enough to save world stocks from further losses (Reuters)
  • Republican rift widens as Trump declines to endorse Ryan, McCain (Reuters)
  • New Rough Patch for Trump Campaign Roils Republicans as Defections Grow (WSJ)
  • Obama says Trump unfit to be president (FT)
  • World’s Largest Oil Hedge Set to Make Billions for Mexican State (BBG)

DoD Admits US Global Hegemony Threatened By China, Russia In "Persistently Disordered World"

"Rising powers including for example, China, Russia, India, Iran, or Brazil have increasingly expressed dissatisfaction with their roles, access, and authorities within the current international system... The future world order will see a number of states with the political will, economic capacity, and military capabilities to compel change at the expense of others..."

Exposing Hillbama's Big Lie: The Central Issue In The U.S. Presidential Campaign

Obama’s ‘mono-polar world’ is a fiction, and the sooner that he and his Big Lie can be exposed (by the Western press, to the Western publics), the safer everyone will be. Discomforts on the parts of those who have promulgated and propagandized that lie will be vastly less than the disastrous alternative, which would destroy the world for everyone.

(Con)fidence Game

The financial and economic world in 2016 is, more than anything, a confidence game (pun intended). The year started with confidence severely shaken, so gasoline (as one real economic variable) and hiding intervention (the further hint of desperation) are more likely to have lasting negative effects than effusive but unbacked mainstream praise for the nth year in a row.