Brazil
Frontrunning: November 25
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/25/2015 07:34 -0500- Andrew Cuomo
- Black Friday
- Bond
- Brazil
- California Public Employees' Retirement System
- Carlyle
- Central Banks
- China
- Citibank
- Comcast
- Government Stimulus
- Hong Kong
- Housing Market
- Insider Trading
- Mexico
- OPEC
- Private Equity
- Real estate
- Reuters
- Shadow Chancellor
- Ukraine
- Volkswagen
- Wall Street Journal
- Yen
- Yuan
- European stocks up, oil slides as concerns ease over Russia-Turkey tension (Reuters)
- ECB discusses two-tiered bank charges, broader bond buys (Reuters)
- New agonies, alliances as Fed debates post-liftoff plan (Reuters)
- A New Military Power Rises in the Mideast, Courtesy of One Man (BBG)
- Russia's Gazprom says halts gas supplies to Ukraine over payment (Reuters)
- Other central banks set to act, but Swiss policy cupboard bare (Reuters)
"Your Debt Bubble Is Here" - The Updated Leverage Cycle Map
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/24/2015 17:00 -0500Wondering where the world's economies are in the leverage cycle? Well, wonder no more. SocGen is out with its updated "leverage clock" which shows you where the bank thinks everyone falls in terms of ticking debt time bombs. As you'll see, SocGen's assessment is quite generous...
Saudi De-Peg Looms As FX Market Signals Loudest "Black Swan Warning" In 13 Years
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/23/2015 22:00 -0500As we noted recently, BofAML fears "a depeg of the Saudi riyal is the number one black-swan event for the global oil market in 2016," adding that it is "a highly unlikely but highly impactful risk." Given the recent action in Saudi Riyal forwards - the market's best guess at where the oil-ruch nation's currency will trade in the future - the chance of the black swan 'de-peg' is its highest since 2002. Besides this morning's "whatever it takes" moment, which oil markets quickly shrugged off, amid heavy subsidies to keep the people calm and the costs of wars in Yemen (and more in Syria), weak oil revenues leave The Sauds with few options (outside of the load the nation with ever more debt program): It's either stop it with the whole flooding an oversupplied market strategy, or let the peg fall before reserves runs dry.
A Year Of "Pain Trades" And Flash Crashes: 2015 Summarized In 10 Bullet Points
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/23/2015 14:39 -05002015 ends with the market cap of Amazon & Google exceeding that of every single Chinese company in the MSCI China index… the US stock market a mere 107 trading days away from becoming the 2nd longest bull market of all-time, with equity leadership driven by “growth” (longest duration of outperformance ever) & “quality” (at all-time relative high)… and $6trn of negatively-yielding government bonds, $17trn of bonds yielding <1%, and the Fed expected to raise the Fed funds rates for the 1st time since 2006.
Argentina Throws Out The Peronists In "Historic" Presidential Election
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/23/2015 07:53 -0500"Today is a historic day. It’s the changing of an era. We can live in an Argentina without poverty, where we can all aspire to have our own homes with running water and a sewage system."
"The question is whether this is going to be something like the rebirth of Argentina or another failed dream that people get excited about, but then they can’t overcome the challenges.”
It's "Red Or Black" For Those Still Foolish Enough To Play
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/22/2015 16:35 -0500There’s an old adage among veteran stock traders that goes something like his, “If I told you the news before it were made public – it’s still a 50/50 bet you would guess the market’s reaction correctly.” That was when the markets had some resemblance of normalcy. Today, normalcy has been replaced with sheer lunacy as to the speculation and interpretations for where these markets go from here.
Brazil's Disastrous Debt Dynamics Could "Create Contagion" For Emerging Markets, Barclays Warns
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/22/2015 10:00 -0500“Brazil is confronting a toxic combination of a primary budget deficit, high public debt (relative to EM countries), very high real interest rates (the Selic stands at 14.25%), sluggish trend growth, a negative commodity price shock and potential contingent liabilities for the sovereign, which together spell trouble for public debt dynamics.”
Stagflation Ahead: Goldman Is "Unreservedly Disappointed" With Latin America
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/21/2015 20:30 -0500By now, everyone knows Brazil is stuck in a stagflationary nightmare that's made immeasurably worse by the country's seemingly intractable political crisis. But what about the rest of Latin America? Goldman takes a close look at the regional outlook for the next four years and finds a decidedly unfavorable growth-inflation mix.
When Wall Street Gets DeFANGed - Look Out Below!
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/21/2015 11:01 -0500At this week’s close, the FANG stocks were valued at just under $1.2 trillion, meaning they have gained $450 billion of market cap or 60% during the last 11 months - even as their combined earnings for the September LTM period were up by only 13%. In a word, the gamblers are piling on to the last train out of the station. And that means look out below!
Presenting BofA's "Number One Black Swan Event For The Global Oil Market In 2016"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/20/2015 14:31 -0500"Can the government maintain this strategy of flooding the oil market? In our view, it is unlikely that Saudi leaders would want to exacerbate its ongoing reserve drain by pushing prices below $40/bbl. After all, pressure will quickly build on the riyal’s 30 year peg to the USD if Brent crude oil prices keep falling."
Futures Rise, Global Stocks Set For Best Week In Six Unfazed By Terrorism Concerns
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/20/2015 06:37 -0500Futures are modestly higher in early trading having tracked the USDJPY once again almost tick for tick, with the carry trade of choice rising to 123 shortly after Mario Draghi's latest speech pushed the dollar strong initially only to see most gains promptly evaporate against both the Yen and the Euro. European shares are likewise little changed, after gaining earlier, while Asian stocks rise; oil also advanced in early trading only to drop to its lowest overnight level moments ago, a few dimes over $40, with aluminum and copper both posting modest increases.
The Great Fall Of China Started At Least 4 Years Ago
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015 20:35 -0500China’s producers couldn’t get the prices they wanted anymore, as early as 4 years ago, and that’s where deflationary forces came in. No matter how much extra credit/debt was injected into the money supply, the spending side started to stutter. It never recovered.
Inflation, Unemployment Soar As Brazil Remains Trapped In Stagflationary Nightmare
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015 14:48 -0500Just a day after a dismal read on GDP, the latest data out of Brazil shows a spike in both inflation and unemployment, as the country's economic outlook continues to deteriorate at an alarming pace.
The Fed-Induced Farce
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/19/2015 11:01 -0500The Fed has created a dead end street for everyone not in their .1% clientele... We’re all muppets to the banking cabal running this morally and financially bankrupt military empire of debt.
The 1% Is Rolling Over
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/18/2015 20:30 -0500Today’s financial world is a tough place for the average person but paradise for rich guys. As easy money raises asset prices, the owners of those assets make effortless profits. Then they buy expensive toys and trophy properties. Hence the recent boom in fine art, high-end real estate, yachts and private jets. But like all financial trends, this one has a limit, and that limit is now in sight. The 1%, it seems, is rolling over...


