"The impotence of monetary policy in boosting growth and staving off deflationary pressures has become painfully apparent, especially when it is acting in isolation and when a large number of countries are resorting to the same limited playbook."
"Australia has benefited from China’s growth over the past decades, but has become a less diversified and commodity dependent economy in the process. It is now exposed to China’s slowdown, and may be unable to re-engineer itself quickly enough to avoid the end of the commodity super-cycle. The worst is yet to come, in our view."
"It is not a problem of liquidity, but of fundamentals"...
The signs of deflation are now flashing all over the globe and the possibility of an associated financial crisis is now dangerously high over the next few months. Our preferred model for how things are going to unfold follows the Ka-Poom! Theory, which states that this epic debt bubble will ultimately burst first by deflation (the "Ka!") before then exploding (the "Poom!") in hyperinflation due to additional massive money printing efforts by frightened global central bankers acting in unison. First an inwards collapse, then an outwards explosion.
In Latest Sign Of EM Chaos, Turkey's FX Reserves Fall Below Key Threshold Ahead Of Pivotal ElectionsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/01/2015 15:45 -0500
If you think it’s bad now, just wait until November. If AKP doesn’t secure an absolute majority there’s no telling how Erdogan will react and if Ankara moves to nullify yet another democratic election by intentionally stirring up the PKK, you can expect outright chaos.
Brazilian Nightmare Worsens On Bad Budget Data, Record Low Confidence, Horrific Government Approval RatingsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 09/30/2015 16:11 -0500
With the fiscal picture looking increasingly precarious and confidence collapsing, we bring you the latest from the frontlines of the EM meltdown. In short, Brazil is falling apart at the seams. Now, who wants tickets to the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio?
- Asia shares rally, but on track for worst quarterly loss in four years (Reuters)
- Global Rally Shows Relief at End of $11 Trillion Stocks Meltdown (BBG)
- Glencore Extends Rebound as Turmoil Shows Signs of Easing (BBG)
- Putin wins parliamentary backing for air strikes in Syria (Reuters)
- China Cuts Minimum Home Down Payment for First-Time Buyers (BBG)
- German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises in Sign of Economic Risks (BBG)
- Japan Industrial Output Slide Hints at Recession (WSJ)
Obama’s speech at The UN made clear that Washington accepts no responsibility for the destruction of the lives and prospects of millions of Muslims. The refugees from Washington’s wars who are overflowing Europe are the fault of Assad, Obama declared. Obama’s claim to represent "international norms" was an assertion of US hegemony, and was recognized as such by the General Assembly. The presidents of Russia, China, and Iran did not accept Washington’s definition of "international norms." The lines are drawn. Unless the American people come to their senses and expel the Washington warmongers, war is our future.
“The king is not in a stable condition and in reality the son of the king [Mohammed bin Salman] is ruling the kingdom,” the prince said. “So four or possibly five of my uncles will meet soon to discuss the letters. They are making a plan with a lot of nephews and that will open the door. A lot of the second generation is very anxious.”
In the wake of the global commodities rout which recently saw prices touch their lowest levels of the 21st century, there’s been no shortage of commentary (here or otherwise) on the pain that’s been inflicted on commodity currencies and by extension, on EM. As it stands, the world’s emerging economies face a kind of perfect storm triggered by a combination of the following factors: falling commodity prices, depressed Chinese demand, and the threat of an imminent Fed hike. With the situation deteriorating virtually by the day, we thought it an opportune time to highlight the spike in EM credit risk...
"It was our Black Monday. The big question is when will they come back, because managers have been really quite reliant on Sama for business in recent years."
- Headline winner: "Read Beyond Massive Job-Cuts Headlines: Labor Market Is Fine" (BBG)
- And speaking of lies: The More Yellen Talks Up Inflation, the Less Traders Believe Her (BBG)
- How Some Investors Get Special Access to Companies (WSJ)
- Victorious Catalan separatists claim mandate to break with Spain (Reuters)
- Russia seizes initiative in Syria (Reuters)
- Former VW boss Winterkorn investigated for fraud (Reuters)
- Investors Pull Back From Junk Bonds (WSJ)
With liquidity in the markets drying up, it's important not only to understand the opportunity but also to understand how to execute on an opportunity!
Over the past few years no institution has had more consequences beholden to their words than the Federal Reserve. So much so one could reasonably argue in response to prevailing circumstances their communiques overshadowed most others; including presidents and other leaders. The problem today is; in their effort to bring more clarity via press-ers, and more as to what might be transpiring behind the doors at the Eccles building, they’ve now communicated more confusion in the last two weeks nullifying all previous efforts. In our eyes it seems to be working exactly the same as its other policy outcomes: adding confusion, uncertainty, and having the exact opposite of intended results.