Brazil

"The World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund" Has A Terrible March, Goes Even Shorter

"How do you know this is just a short squeeze, and not the beginning of something much more substantial? While equities are trying to send a bullish tune, the 200 day moving average is now trending down for S&P, Dax and the Nikkei. This is not bullish. Furthermore, yield curves in the US, Japan and Europe have flattened. This is not bullish. Yen is rallying. This is not bullish. We have seen substantial covering by the market. This is not bullish."

U.S. Economy 2016: 3 Classic Recession Signals Are Flashing Red

Those that were hoping for an “economic renaissance” in the United States got some more bad news this week.  It turns out that the U.S. economy is in significantly worse shape than the experts were projecting.  Retail sales unexpectedly declined in March, total business sales have fallen again, and the inventory to sales ratio has hit the highest level since the last financial crisis.  When you add these three classic recession signals to the 19 troubling numbers about the U.S. economy that we wrote about last week, it paints a very disturbing picture.

Brazil Stocks Soar After Rousseff Impeachment Vote Passes Critical Threshold

Following Monday's decision by a special committee to commence the impeachment process against president Dilma Rousseff, all attention had been focused on the number of Congressional votes that the pro-impeachment movement would have ahead  Sunday's critical vote. As a reminder, impeachment would require two-thirds support, or 342 of the 513 lower-house lawmakers, to send the case to the Senate. Then, moments ago, Brazil's Folha newspaper reported that this critical 342 threshold had been met.

"If No Agreement, Expect A Sharp Selloff" - All You Need To Know About Doha

Sunday’s producer meeting is all about nothing no matter what agreement might be forged. At best, the agreement will be, as Russia’s energy minister has stated, a gentlemen’s affair, with no binding commitments, no concrete next steps beyond having a review meeting, and no procedure for moving to production cuts.

Frontrunning: April 15

  • Global stocks, dollar and oil cool ahead of Doha meeting (Reuters)
  • Oil Falls Before Doha as Global Markets Brace for Weekend Risk (BBG)
  • China Growth Slows; Revival Policies Appear to Gain Traction (WSJ)
  • White House hopefuls Clinton, Sanders joust in Brooklyn brawl (Reuters)
  • Trump talks up 'New York values' as protesters demonstrate against him (Reuters)
  • Sanders Can’t Clarify Wall Street Plan in Testy Clinton Debate (BBG)

Futures Fade As Chinese "Good News Is Bad News" For Fed, Oil Drops As Doha Concerns Emerge

Good news is still bad news after all. After last night's China 6.7% GDP print which while the lowest since Q1 2009, was in line with expectations, coupled with beats in IP, Fixed Asset Investment and Retail Sales (on the back of $1 trillion in total financing in Q1)  the sentiment this morning is that China has turned the corner (if only for the time being). And that's the problem, because while China was a good excuse for the Fed to interrupt its rate hike cycle as the biggest "global" threat, that is no longer the case if China has indeed resumed growing. As such Yellen no longer has a ready excuse to delay. This is precisely why futures are lower as of this moment, because suddenly the "scapegoat" narrative has evaporated.

Brazil Committee Votes To Begin Rousseff Impeachment Process: What Happens Next

Moments ago, in the first of two closely anticipated and watched votes, a special committee in Brazil's lower house voted 38 to 27 to begin the impeachment process against president Dilma Rousseff. But while the first key step in Rousseff's ouster has been taken, there is a long road ahead for the process and Dilma will not go quietly or without a fight.

Has The Global Earnings Recession Finished, Morgan Stanley Asks And Answers

Globally we calculate that earnings are currently falling in 29 of the largest 30 MSCI ACWI markets, with the sole exception being Switzerland. For DM this is the seventh earnings recession since the early 1970s. If it ends now it will tie for the least severe in percentage decline terms and win for being the shortest in months of duration of the last 45 years. The longest earnings recession was that which ran from August 1989 to June 1993 while the deepest was the 60% decline in earnings during the GFC.

The End Is Near For Brazil's Ultra-Corrupt Government

"We could lose a decade of economic growth in three or four years," one official exclaims, "in other words, a decade of growth would be lost during Dilma’s mandate if she continues on as president." This recession, and concurrent high inflation, has been magnified by the biggest scandal in political memory...“It is considered common sense now that she will be impeached. Only a miracle can save her. All the factors are pushing that way."

"Let Me Tell You About The Very Rich"

As the Panama Papers appear to show, the very wealthy play by an entirely different set of rules than the average person when it comes to paying taxes. The role of global banks has been a prominent feature of early reporting on the Panama files, reinforcing the impression of the entire sector as one big, risky rip-off machine, preying on consumers and governments to maximize profit. The scandal is only the latest in a series of almost countless ones, most of which were settled with fines and no admission of guilt. There is hardly a global financial market that has not been systematically manipulated by major Wall Street firms: interest rates, foreign exchange, metals, electricity — the list goes on.

The 50 Most Murderous Cities In The World

While America managed (for the first time) to get two cities on the world's Top 50 most murderous list, it is Brazil that takes the proverbial cake. Brazil has been in crisis for some time now, but even that does not explain how the venue for the 2016 Olympics is home to a mind-boggling 32 of the 50 most murderous cities in the world.

Disastrous Ticket Sales, Ongoing Political Turmoil Put Brazil Olympics In Jeopardy

With only four month to go until the Brazil summer olympics, only half of the tickets have been sold. Brazil’s new minister of sports Ricardo Leyser suggested that the Brazilian government may purchase tickets that will be distributed to public schools. He said public officials must also work to boost worldwide confidence in Rio's ability to host the games and ensure travelers' safety.

Triffin's Paradox Revisited: Crunch-Time For The U.S. Dollar & The Global Economy

While all eyes on fixated on global stock markets as the measure of "prosperity" and "growth" (or is it hubris?), the larger force at work beneath the dovish cooing of central bankers is foreign exchange. The reality is that we're one panic away from foreign-exchange markets ripping free of central bank manipulation.

Frontrunning: April 5

  • Panama Papers: Biggest Banks Are Top Users of Offshore Services (WSJ)
  • Panama Papers probes opened, China limits access to news on leaks (Reuters)
  • Credit Suisse CEO Distances Bank From ‘Panama Papers’ (WSJ)
  • Fed's Evans says market more pessimistic on U.S. rate hikes (Reuters)
  • IMF's Lagarde Says Risks to Weak Global Recovery Are Increasing (BBG)