In effect British Citizens will be punished twice for Brexit, now with much higher inflation, and down the line with a substantial recession when they actually start to experience the effects of leaving the European Union.
European shares fell modestly, Asian equities declined for the first day in three, and US equity futures were unchanged before the December U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. China’s offshore yuan fell the most in a year to pare a record weekly rally, while Mexico’s peso climbed after the central bank sold dollars. Oil was trading lower in early trading.
After incorrectly predicting virtually every "surprise" for 2016 one year ago, the bulls better beware because in Byron Wien's list of "ten surprises" for 2017, the 83-year-old Blackstoner has turned decidedly bullish this time, and expects the S&P to surge to 2,500 while the US economy grows at a brisk 3%. With that, he may have just doomed any hope for a non-recession in 2017.
Who needs reality when we can exist in illusions? In Modi’s imagination, if you are not a part of the formal economy - as is the case with the vast majority of desperately poor Indians, perhaps close to a billion people - you don’t count.
"Markets don’t have a purpose any more - they just reflect whatever central planners want them to. Why wouldn’t it lead to the biggest collapse? My strategy doesn’t require that I’m right about the likelihood of that scenario. Logic dictates to me that it’s inevitable..."
1) Peak Liquidity: era of excess liquidity is over; 2) Peak Inequality: more fiscal stimulus to address inequality; 3) Peak Globalization: free movement of trade, labor, capital ending; FX wars starting; 4) Peak Deflation: low point in bond yields now behind us; 5) Trough Volatility: era of “flash volatility” and “pain trades” continues; 6) Peak Passive: active investors to outperform passive; 7) Transforming World: robotics, eCommerce constrain inflation upside
Asian stocks, S&P futures and European shares trade flat as a tightening race for the U.S. presidency spurs demand for haven assets including the yen while weighing on stocks and Mexico’s peso. A turbulent overnight session saw some early risk off following the plunge in Facebook shares and the Fox News report that an FBI probe into the Clinton foundation may lead to a "likely indictment."
"I believe 2017--2021 will represent the end and reversal of that multi-decade trend - as the debt bubble bursts and bond markets begin to crash... Each phase was a desperate battle between centralized, governmental control of currency versus universal, hard-asset based currency. And each phase saw the acceleration and intensification of that battle take hold in the ‘7’ year."
With all eyes on the drop in the British Pound, it is another 'pound' that is utterly collapsing. Despite its official exchange rate is 8.88 per dollar, Egypt’s pound dropped to 16.11 per dollar in the black market, another record that extends declines over the past month to 19% and down over 40% since it devalued in March.