Bureau of Labor Statistics

President Obama's Premature Victory Lap

Before President Obama takes his final victory lap with claims of creating the most robust employment recovery since the 1990’s, the data clearly suggests otherwise. Of course, if you ask the 37% that are no longer counted as part of the labor force, they will tell you the same thing.

Can The Price Of Oil Hold Above $50 Per Barrel?

"I am doubtful that the price of oil can rise very high, for very long. Our oil price problem is part of a much larger problem. Once we understand the reason for our low-price problem–diminishing returns and the economy’s tie to the use of energy - it is clear that there is no way out of the problem over the longer term."

Recession Now... Or Depression Later

Currently economists and market watchers roughly fall into two camps: Those who believe that the Federal Reserve must begin raising interest rates now so that it will have enough rate cutting firepower to fight the next recession, and those who believe that raising rates now will simply precipitate an immediate recession and force the Fed into battle without the tools it has traditionally used to stimulate growth. Both camps are delusional, but for different reasons.

Sizing Up The Endgame

"The idea is that the winner of the presidential election is sure to be the biggest loser because the global economy is in the process of tanking, Long Emergency style, and the global finance system is going down with it. Whoever presides over this fiasco from the White House is going to be a bigger bag-holder than old Herbert Hoover in 1929... In short, vote for Hillary and let history flush them all out of the system."

What's The Real Unemployment Rate? That's The Wrong Question

The truth is the unemployment rate is a political number, not an economic one. If we want an accurate snapshot of employment, earned income and the state of small business, we have hard data that is already collected quarterly. Common sense suggests we will get more value from hard data than from politicized guesswork.