Bureau of Labor Statistics

A +316,000 NFP Print On Friday? The BLS Seasonal Fudge Factors Make It Very Likely

"As we look to December data (reported this Friday) if the seasonal adjustment multiple returns to anything in the range of historical norms it should provide a huge lift to the reported m/m change. In quantitative terms a return to the 1996–2008 average would create a seasonal lift of 431K to the as-reported m/ m change. In comparison the 1996–2007 actual December m/m change (unadjusted) was 116K. Put differently, if this was an average December for job creation and the adjustment factor returns to a historical average we would see a non-farm payroll print of +316K on Friday." - Stifel Nicolaus

BLS Reports Improvement In State Unemployment Rates

Latest data out of the BLS is in tune with the most recent miraculous reading of national unemployment, a number which as highlighted allows more ways to be gamed than not. In any case, for those who believe BLS data, here are the most improved states (those farmers must sure be hiring ahead of the winter season): Louisiana: from 7.4% to 6.7%, Nebraska: from 4.9% to 4.5%, Kansas: from 6.8% to 6.3%, Connecticut: 8.8% to 8.2%, and Kentucky: 11.2% to 10.6%.

Charting The Government's Chronic And Flawed Overrepresentation Of Household Net Worth: A $2.1 Trillion Downward Revision In One Quarter

After we posted our preliminary thoughts on the Z.1 "Flow of Funds Accounts of the U.S." report earlier, we had the chance to dig deeper through the data in the governmental cash flow report. To our surprise we uncovered some dramatic data revisions whose presence highlights the recent "consumer resurgence" in a very different light. The key finding is that the government has been chronically overrepresenting Household Net Worth in original publications, and subsequently revising the data dramatically in order to hide the fact that consumers' wealth is nowhere near as impressive as originally represented. Putting a number to this statement: a $2.1 trillion downward revision in just one quarter.

Econophile's picture

Christina Romer is one of Obama's chief economic advisors. But she has absolutely no clue what to do about this crisis. Her recent letter defending the Administration's policies is just the usual hack political stuff one would expect from them. She is typical of the problems in Washington. She means well, but she is fabricating the truth in order to justify their actions. Their approach to using government power is one we should all be afraid of. She spells it out quite clearly.

The Truth About The BLS Lies

All the fabrications behind the BLS numbers in one easy to digest cartoon. And for those who wish to know what the December NFP number will be, we suggest FOIAinf Obama's TV tour schedule and juxtaposing it with January BLS releases. After all, someone has to take over Oprah's "feel good" show.

Full Ben Bernanke Speech Before Economic Club of New York

The foreign exchange value of the dollar has moved over a wide range during the past year or so. When financial stresses were most pronounced, a flight to the deepest and most liquid capital markets resulted in a marked increase in the dollar. More recently, as financial market functioning has improved and global economic activity has stabilized, these safe haven flows have abated, and the dollar has accordingly retraced its gains. The Federal Reserve will continue to monitor these developments closely. We are attentive to the implications of changes in the value of the dollar and will continue to formulate policy to guard against risks to our dual mandate to foster both maximum employment and price stability. Our commitment to our dual objectives, together with the underlying strengths of the U.S. economy, will help ensure that the dollar is strong and a source of global financial stability.

No mention of Gold

The Real Memo Out Of The Bureau Of Lies And Statistics

"We're leveling off! We're leveling off!"—so is the hope of TTT, Helicopter Ben, Larry the Wall Street Lackey and the rest of Team Obama. "This recession is leveling off!"

No it's not: The unemployment figures just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics are totally cosmetic: We lost a whole lot more than 531,000 unemployed.

First, the "seasonal adjustment", which is a black box that can tweek me into looking like Dumbo the flying elephant. They're knocking off ±65,000 workers for no clearly discernible reason.

The Housing Trainwreck From Yet Another Angle

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the increase in unemployment in the architecture and engineering occuptions has doubled from 2007 to 2008! This is roughly 4 times the average change in unemployment for all people aged 16 and over, which was 26.1% at the end of 2008. This statistic was relevant when total unemployment was 5.8%. With today's reading of 8.5% unemployment, all bets are off as to what on earth is going on in the U.S. labor market.