Bureau of Labor Statistics
After every non-farm payroll report we provide our own breakdown of what the real unemployment rate is in a country in which the labor force participation rate has not been adjusted to normalize for the Second Great Depression. In the most recent such endeavor we found the "Real Unemployment Rate" to be 11.3%. Today, courtesy of the Post's John Crudele we find that our estimate was spot on not just from anyone, but the former head of the BLS himself: Keith Hall.
The mainstream media is claiming that "The aggregate amount of money in paychecks is increasing about twice as fast as GDP." Rising aggregate household income doesn't tell the real story, which is: 1. Most of the income gains flow to the top 10%; and 2. Thanks to rising taxes, healthcare and other costs, household net income for the bottom 90% is declining. The mainstream media's parroting of aggregate household income increases is used to suggest the economy is improving. But the truth is the economy is only improving for a thin slice of households.
The concept we call gross domestic production (GDP) is highly distortive. It obfuscates intelligent debate in economics as the true underlying force for economic growth, capital accumulation, is seen as detrimental to prosperity
One minute we hear that Quantitative Easing is going completely, then it’s going a bit and withdrawing in side-steps and little paces and then it’s going to carry on. Where do we stand?
As the EU agrees to fund another bailout deal to help Greece rise from the ashes, providing them with another $8.7 billion in financial aid, the question that begs an answer is: will this have any effect on the austerity that is being imposed on the country. Throwing good money after bad?
Benjamin Strong was near the end of a long stint as head of the New York Federal Reserve Bank (he passed away in October 1928), where he enjoyed the same immense power that Ben Bernanke has today. The economy had just begun to recover from a recession in December 1927, and there was much unemployment and spare capacity.... Agriculture was booming during and immediately after World War I, based on thriving exports to Europe. Overinvestment during the boom then gave way to stagnation in the 1920s. Europe was in a bad state in the late 1920s, just as it is now. What’s more, two of the world’s three largest economies are now in Asia, and these economies face similar challenges to those of 1920s Europe. While analogies are never perfect, the parallels with early 1928 are troubling. When the world slipped into depression in the late 1920s and early 1930s, it was on the back of imbalances and debt overhangs that are oddly similar to those that we face today.
When enough of us realize the extent of inflation, bond buyers will likely demand higher coupon rates; the government's cost of debt service could soar.
The Consumer Metrics Institute is generally a pretty subdued bunch, as befits their job interpreting economic statistics for money managers and other economists. But lately they’ve been increasingly vocal about the farce we are witnessing: "From time to time we may quarrel with the quality of the BEA’s deflaters. And frankly we may even find that at face value the lackluster numbers amount to nothing more than a sham “recovery.” But the most shocking part of this report is glaringly obvious from the real per capita disposable income numbers: all of the unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus has left American households materially worse off than they were two years ago."
It should be obvious by now that the old adage– study hard, get good grades, go to a good school, get a great job, and work your way up the ladder– really doesn’t apply anymore. And it’s time to re-invent the model. Based on the eight reasons below, it’s no wonder they call them the “Boomerang Generation”, and that 45% of college grads aged 18-24 in the United States were still living with Mom and Dad...
Few others are better equipped to comprehend both the insider's and outsider's perspective on what the government, the Fed, and the banks are doing in this so-called 'recovery' we are experiencing than David Stockman. Nowhere does he detail this better than Chapter 31 of his new book 'The Great Deformation'. In this first part (of a five-part series), he explains just what happened after the US economy liquidated excess inventory and labor and hit its natural bottom in June 2009. Embarking upon a halting but wholly unnatural "recovery," doing nothing but igniting yet another round of rampant speculation in the risk asset classes. The precarious foundation of the Bernanke Bubble is starkly evident in the internal composition of the jobs numbers.
Whether or not this is a direct result of the Snowden whistleblower affair is unclear, but the following BLS job posting just hit the tape. In brief: suddenly the Bureau of [insert favorite L and S words here] is just a little concerned about the "proper security and unauthorized disclosure" of its data and making sure it is not "vulnerable to purposeful denial-of-access or alteration by unauthorized persons." So we wonder: will the next whistleblower to emerge be from the BLS, and just what tidbits of ARIMA-X-12 "seasonal adjustments" will they unleash upon the world? We are confident at least one of our computer savvy, if temporarily unemployed readers, would be delighted to provide their skillset to the BLS.
If we take out this trendline, stocks could easily go to 1,450. And if things get really ugly we could even see a Crash (though that would likely come later in the Autumn based on historic patterns).
Inflation, housing, unemployment figures, personal spending and utility bills are all improving across the US.
The Nikkei dropped by 7.3% at the end of the day and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dipped by 2.5%. Shanghai maintained a moderate fall at just 1.2% (if you believe that data now!). The Asian markets are down.
Last week (May 11th) there was a peak of 32, 000 new claims being made taking the US to 360, 000 new unemployed claims being filed, which is the biggest increase since March.