Keys in the week ahead: equity markets--still look lower; China--volatility likely to continue; Fed--market says no Sept hike
Every day, the world consumes 93 million barrels of oil, which is worth $4.2 billion. Oil is one of the world’s most basic necessities. At least for now, all modern countries rely on oil and its derivatives as the backbone of their economies. However, the price of oil can have significant swings. These changes in price can have profound implications depending on whether an economy is a net importer or net exporter of crude.
Divegence driver of the dollar was never predicated on a particular time frame for the Fed's lift-off. Others are easing. Trajectory is the key. Here is my sense of the near-term dollar outlook, wiht a look at some other asset markets as well.
Dollar recovered from the exaggerated panic at the start of last week. Outlook is still constructive. Here is an overview of the technical condition of currencies, bonds, oil , and S&P 500.
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Steep losses in the dollar, stocks and commodities, for sure, but does it really signal a systemic crisis?
China, Australia, Brazil, Canada, Sweden - it is beyond us how anyone can declare the crisis isn’t spreading. Be prepared – there are going to be lots of opportunities to both make and lose money. But first, you have to recognize what is happening.
Near-term dollar outlook, with some views on oil, Treasuries and S&P 500 thrown in for extra measure.
While making its devaluation announcement, Beijing said that it wanted its currency "to reflect fundamentals" and to no longer simply mirror the movement of the dollar. It acknowledged the fact that its peg to the dollar was problematic and that it wanted a better, more natural mechanism. This is the key to understanding the announcement: The Chinese are preparing for a time in which the financial world does not spin in orbit around the dollar. Such a reality must make us think about the future.
The demise of the dollar has been greatly exaggerated. Here is how I see the near-term outlook.
WTI Crude is back below $45 again this morning - pressing towards 2015 and cycle lows -after Goldman Sachs' Jeffrey Currie warns 'lower for longer' is here to stay, with price risk "substantially skewed to the downside." His reasoning are manifold, as detailed below, but overarching is oversupply (Saudi Arabia has a challenge in Asia as it battles to maintain mkt share, the Russians are coming, andother OPEC members want a bigger slice) and, even more crucially, storage is running out. As Currie concludes, this time it is different. Financial metrics for the oil industry are far worse.
After a lukewarm start by the Chinese "market", which had dropped for the past 6 out of 7 days despite ever escalating measures by Beijing to manipulate stocks higher, finally the Shanghai Composite reacted favorably to Chinese micromanagement of stock prices and closed 3.7% higher as Chinese regulators stepped up their latest measures by adjusting rules on short-selling in order to reduce trading frequency and price volatility, resulting in several large brokerages suspending short sell operations. At this pace only buy orders will soon be legal which just may send the farce of what was once a "market" limit up.
A non-bombastic analysis of the events and data in the week ahead, with insulting anyone or resorting to conspiracy theories.
Regardless of where one thinks the dollar is going in the long-term, here is a discussion of where it will likely go in the short-term.
The dollar's pause may be short-lived. Divergence still the key driver.