In what seems to have surprised FX trader, Bank of Canada has taken an ax to growth forecasts and rates...
*BOC CUTS CANADA 2015 GDP FORECAST TO 1.1% FROM 1.9%
*BANK OF CANADA CUTS 2Q GDP ESTIMATE TO -0.5% FROM 1.8%
*BANK OF CANADA CUTS BENCHMARK INTEREST RATE TO 0.5%
Furthermore, it warns that "consumer debt vulnerabilities are edging higher" and export weakness is "puzzling."
It is only fitting that almost exactly 24 hours after the Greek "pre-deal", which may and will end up crashing and burning in very short notice, another long expected "deal", one which has been about a decade in the making, was reached, when Iran reached a landmark nuclear agreement with the U.S. and five other world powers, a long-sought foreign policy goal of the Obama administration. However, just like with the Greek deal celebrations, these too will likely be short lived as the outcome sets the White House on course for months of political strife with dissenters in Congress and in allied Middle Eastern nations.
Next week's key events and data, if we can look beyond Greece and China.
Non-bombastic look at the price action and speculative positioning, with the hope of anticipating next week's developments.
Initial conditions matter when contemplating impact of Greek referendum
A look at the psycholgoy of traders as reflected in the price action ahead the new week which promises to be eventful.
Trying to make sense of the global capital markets.
No follow through dollar buying against euro, yen and sterling after data showing US economyis recovering from weak Q1. What is happening? What is the outlook?
The bounce in risk we are witnessing today will not last. The underlying moves in the largest markets in the world are equal to those we saw during the 2008 Crash. Stocks are ALWAYS the last to "get it."
Grit your teeth if you have to. Cry if you want to. US labor market is improving and the dollar is strengthening.
Combination of important events/data and large move in last two weeks, the dollar may pullback/consolidate in the days ahead.
With HFT algos now firmly entrenched in FX markets we weren't surprised to learn that volatility is rising, bid-ask spreads are blowing out, and liquidity is vanishing. Expect things like last October's algo-driven, Fed-assisted Treasury flash crash to become par for the course in FX markets as well, with harrowing USD, EUR, JPY, [fill in the blank] ramps and flash crashs becoming the norm and leaving panicked central bankers desperately trying to figure out what happened after the fact.
It looks like US dollar's two-month downside correction ended. Is the bull market resuming?
Dollar downmove still seems corrective in nature. Fed hike in September still seems most likely scenario. Taalk of US recession is over the top when unemployment, broadly measured is falling and weekly initial jobless claims are at new cyclical lows.
A straightforward analysis of the near-term outlook for the dollar, oil, 10-year US and German yields and the S&P 500.