The stock market is precariously close to slipping into a landslide. If the economy and stock market both continue declining into late October, the presidential election could also turn into a landslide--against the incumbent. There is nothing particularly partisan about this possibility; people who vote tend to vote their pocketbooks, and a re-election campaign that boils down to "hey, it's not as bad as The Great Depression" is unlikely to inspire great loyalty in voters who are already culturally predisposed to tire quickly of presidents, wars and a tanking economy. If the economy and stock markets are both slip-sliding away, the opponent need only be "not the incumbent" to win. Presidents facing re-election in deteriorating economic conditions find their support in the critical non-partisan middle is a mile wide and an inch deep. A recessionary economy acts like a drought on that shallow lake of support, and when it dries up then the incumbent loses, and often loses big.
Dramatic title I realize but look at the charts below and ask yourself if this is purely coincidence or something more telling. Regulars to this site have read posts comparing the current market to that of late 2007. From equities to credit markets to volatility and more the similarities across asset classes has been rather striking. The basis for these comparisons was the belief that at major inflection points markets are more about psychology than they are technicals and or macro data. Since human nature never changes patterns will repeatedly play out as discussed by Jesse Livermore (the following is from a book discussing his trading beliefs). He observed that human emotions collectively had major impacts on the movement of stock prices and Markets in general, ultimately creating patterns that kept repeating.”
Weekly technical profiles of Ashford (AHT), Ares Capital (ARCC), Alleghany (AYE), CF Industries (CF), Cummins (CMI), Complete Production Services (CPX), Estee Lauder (EL), National Bank of Greece (NBG) & QQQQ UltraShort (QID) with explicit trade setups
With an initial bailout of Greece 'out of the way', many market pundits will proudly proclaim the bear market slain. An initial pop monday morning will likely stoke fears of "missing the next leg up." Friday's end-of-day buying surge into the close raises the odds that the market begins the week with strength, but the real test will come when the S&P 500 cash (INX) tests 1,200 and the DJIA (INDU) 11,000. The US Dollar (DXY) plotted a daily FNH (failed new high) this past Thursday at 81.91 before rolling over. Barring a 3-day reversal pattern back up above 81.6, Uncle Buck will likely digest his gains into mid-May after having rallied for four months straight. Ten explicit stock trade setups for GNW, LNC, PFG, RDC, IBB, EMR, HST, AONE, SKYW & APWR.
Last week, one of our 3 bullish candidates, DNR, was the 2nd greatest gainer (+11.2%) across the S&P 500. For this week, our scans say energy complex up, consumer discretionary down. The energy patch, utilities included, appears primed to pump higher. Weekly charts with explicit trade setups ~ DELL, NKE, PCLN, F, BIG, HD, HAS, MAT, UNG, CNX, AES, FE, MFE & QID.
Despite the fact that a high was established for most major markets at precisely 12:48 (EST), the real fireworks didn't occur until 15:28 (3:28 EST), where Volume of NYSE Declining Issues proceeded to more than double its daily tally in the session's final half-hour ... an extremely rare and impressive feat. This intense EOD sell-off tops any form of bearish activity in recent weeks' memory. A technical look under the hood of the NYSE Composite, NYSE VOLD (Up Volume / Down Volume Difference) and 7 Primary US Equity Markets with one of our proprietary Advance/Decline indicators.
The S&P 500, DJIA and NASDAQ Cash Indexes each registered bearish daily candlestick patterns on Thursday's close. Interestingly, the three primary US equity markets registered unique candlestick patterns in the form of a Shooting Star on the S&P 500, a Gravestone Doji on the DJIA and a Bearish Engulfing on the NASDAQ. Charts of the Dow, S&P 500, NASDAQ, VIX, BKX & SKF.
A Detailed Technical Update of the S&P cash, S&P futures, DJIA cash, Gold futures, the VIX and the US Dollar Index ... as well as a look into the "Crown Jewel" of DubaiSubmitted by Fibozachi on 11/30/2009 08:50 -0500
A Detailed Technical Update of the S&P cash, S&P futures, DJIA cash, Gold futures, the VIX and the US Dollar Index ... as well as a look into the "Crown Jewel" of Dubai
An updated snapshot that highlights how the six primary US equity indices have performed relative to each other since their March lows via a percent change chart in addition to a weekly, daily and hourly technical outlook
Comparing the 6 Primary US Equity Markets, VIX Fibonacci Cycles and the US Dollar at a Critical JunctureSubmitted by Fibozachi on 11/10/2009 17:55 -0500
In this piece, we compare the relative performance of the 6 primary domestic equity markets, highlight extraordinary Fibonacci cycles on the VIX, illustrate possible dueling Head & Shoulders patterns between the S&P 500 and the VIX and address the current technical profile of the US Dollar