Capital Expenditures

Empire Fed Rebounds But Employment Indicators Tumble, Optimism Declines

Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity was essentially flat in November, with the general business conditions index climbed out of negative territory for the first time in four months, rising eight points to 1.5 above the expected -2.5. However, in a troubling sign, both employment indicators declined notably, while inventory levels hit a 4 year low, as optimism about the future posted a modest decline.

Trump Or No Trump - Why The Next 8 Years Will Be The Worst Economic Period In US History

Regardless who was chosen as president for the next two terms, 80% of the population growth in the US will come from 65+yr/olds. This is the inverse from Bill Clinton's presidency which was the benefactor of the strongest demographic and population changes. The Fed has been dropping rates ever since to incentivize the decelerating growth among the young to spend more... but the population growth to consume(r) our way out of this debt bubble is never coming.

Let Crude Crash: US Oil Producers Are Hedging At Levels Not Seen Since 2007

Short positions in WTI futures contracts held by producers or merchants totaled more than 540,000 contracts as of October 2016, the most since 2007. Banks have tightened lending standards as crude oil prices declined, and some banks require producers to hedge against future price risk as a condition for lending. As a result, an oil crash may be just the windfall domestic shale producers need.

Largest Dow Component 3M Reports In Line Earnings, Cuts Top End Of Guidance

While 3M's current quarter data was good, the largest Dow component confirmed a recurring trend observed among other reporting companies, namely skepticism about the future, when it trimmed the upper end of its full year EPS guidance: "For full-year 2016, 3M updated its forecast for earnings per share to be in the range of $8.15 to $8.20 versus a prior range of $8.15 to $8.30."

Restaurant Industry In Gloom As Number Of Americans Eating Out Tumbles

When it comes to one of America's favorite pastimes, eating out, the "recovery" fiction peddlers have finally won: according to the latest Restaurant sales data, not only has the number of Americans eating in restaurants tumbled, but restaurant operators are the gloomiest they have been about the state of their industry since the financial crisis.

Barclays Warns The Party Is Almost Over As Payouts Exceed Cash Flow By $115 Billion

Corporate buybacks plus dividends will surpass $1 trillion in 2016, for the first time ever, according to Barclays calculations. This means that payouts to shareholders will surpass total S&P500 cash flow by a whopping $115 billion. And with corporate balance sheets increasing encumbered, Barclays believes that the rate of payouts, rising at 20% in recent years, is about to grind to a halt, meaning that for stocks, the "party is almost over."

Small Business Survey Trips Economic Alarms

The problem for the Fed is that once again the window for a “rate hike” has likely closed. Economic uncertainty, deflationary threats, and market volatility will keep them boxed in for now. Unfortunately, the recent spike in LIBOR has likely already done a bigger job of tightening monetary policy than the Fed actually intended to do. This could cause problems in the not too distant future.

Empire Fed Mysteriously Rises Even As All Components Deteriorate

Over the past year we have seen numerous occasions where regional Fed diffusion indexes posted a headline rebound despite all their components deteriorating. Today was one such day, when moments ago the NY Fed released the Empire State Mfg Survey, which "somehow" rose from -4.21 to -1.99 (it still missed expectations of a -1.00 print). We say somehow because thie "rise" happened even as every component in the index declined.