Capital Expenditures

The Echo Chamber Of Elite Economists: Often Wrong, Never In Doubt

Despite what appears to be an inflection point of radical change, most of which remains unknown, the consensus opinion of professional economists and markets, in general, are well-aligned, optimistic and seemingly convinced about how the economy and markets will evolve throughout the year.  The consensus forecast based upon an assessment of economic projections from major financial institutions appears to be the result of a Ph.D. echo chamber, not rigorous independent analysis.

Paul Brodsky: "Stagflation On The Horizon"

Logic and current trends suggest that declining output growth accompanied by higher prices will begin hitting economies and facing policy makers in the coming years. Markets should begin sniffing out this stagflationary macroeconomic setup this year.

U.S. Shale Faces A Workforce Shortage

A problem for the U.S. shale oil and gas industry that analysts and observers have warned about for a long time has materialized: there is a shortage of workers.

Restaurant Sales And Traffic Tumble

Same-store sales fell -3.7% in February, with traffic declining -5.0%  A macro view leaves little room for optimism. Same-store sales averaged -2.7 percent for the last three months. February’s results were among the weakest in the last four years. Consumers are spending, but they are being battered by rising inflation. Spending power has flatlined as wage gains are barely offsetting price increases.

Yellen: "Our Brand Is Crisis"

While rising interest rates may not “initially” impact asset prices, it is a far different story to suggest that they won’t. In fact, there have been absolutely ZERO times in history that the Federal Reserve has begun an interest rate hiking campaign that has not eventually led to a negative outcome.

Policy Makers - Like Generals - Are Busy Fighting The Last War

It's long overdue to acknowledge we face a future absent net growth and likely a future with fewer consumers, fewer homebuyers, fewer taxpayers, fewer employees.  We face a battle where higher productivity leads to ever more being done by ever fewer people... and if we aren't thoughtful, honest, and creative in how we adapt to this new reality... terrible consequences could await us.

US Services Economy "Loses Momentum" As Inflationary Pressure Surges

While better than expectations, Markit Services PMI dropped to 3-month lows at 53.9 in December as input prices soared at the fastest rate since July 2015 "which could feed through to reduced consumption." ISM Services was flat at 57.2 in December, holding at 14-month highs from November, with employment declining despite rising new orders.