Capital Expenditures

US Services Economy "Loses Momentum" As Inflationary Pressure Surges

While better than expectations, Markit Services PMI dropped to 3-month lows at 53.9 in December as input prices soared at the fastest rate since July 2015 "which could feed through to reduced consumption." ISM Services was flat at 57.2 in December, holding at 14-month highs from November, with employment declining despite rising new orders.

It's The Dollar, Stupid!

We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.

Will Investors Get 'Hustled' By The Pros In 2017?

If you think you’re hearing a wee bit of a mixed message emanating from households and businesses, you’re not losing your marbles. If the stars don’t align perfectly, if the sequel doesn’t best the original, smaller investors might want to wise up to the fact that they’re being hustled by the equivalent of professional gamblers.

Global Stocks Rise, Dow Flirts With 20,000 As London Reopens; Oil In Longest Winning Streak In 7 Years

Global markets continued their levitation with the UK returning from vacation, pushing the MSCI Asia Pacific Index higher for the first time in seven days, while oil headed for the longest winning streak in almost seven years ahead of the promised OPEC production cut which is set to begin in just days. The USDJPY rose for a second day, pushing US equity futures higher and the DJIA is once again teasing with the 20,000 mark.

US Shale Gas Industry: Countdown To Disaster

The countdown has started as the demise of the great U.S. shale gas industry has begun.  This will have a disastrous impact on the U.S. economy as shale gas production declines in a big way.  Unfortunately, very few Americans understand how sickly the domestic shale gas industry truly is, because they have been brainwashed to believe the United States is heading towards energy independence.

Philly, Empire Feds Smash Expectations On Soaring Optimism Despite Deterioration Labor Conditions, Inflation Spike

There is seemingly no stopping the runaway train that is the economic momentum of the past month, as confirmed by the just released Philly and Empire Fed surveys, which printed at 21.5 and 9.0, smashing expectations of 9.1 and 4 respectively, in fact printing above the highest estimate for both reports, and well above the recent print of 7.6 and 1.5. The one blemish was the sharp drop in labor market conditions at the Empire Fed, which saw a big drop in both employment and hours worked.

Empire Fed Rebounds But Employment Indicators Tumble, Optimism Declines

Manufacturing firms in New York State reported that business activity was essentially flat in November, with the general business conditions index climbed out of negative territory for the first time in four months, rising eight points to 1.5 above the expected -2.5. However, in a troubling sign, both employment indicators declined notably, while inventory levels hit a 4 year low, as optimism about the future posted a modest decline.

Trump Or No Trump - Why The Next 8 Years Will Be The Worst Economic Period In US History

Regardless who was chosen as president for the next two terms, 80% of the population growth in the US will come from 65+yr/olds. This is the inverse from Bill Clinton's presidency which was the benefactor of the strongest demographic and population changes. The Fed has been dropping rates ever since to incentivize the decelerating growth among the young to spend more... but the population growth to consume(r) our way out of this debt bubble is never coming.

Let Crude Crash: US Oil Producers Are Hedging At Levels Not Seen Since 2007

Short positions in WTI futures contracts held by producers or merchants totaled more than 540,000 contracts as of October 2016, the most since 2007. Banks have tightened lending standards as crude oil prices declined, and some banks require producers to hedge against future price risk as a condition for lending. As a result, an oil crash may be just the windfall domestic shale producers need.