Capital Markets

100 Years Ago, Russian Stocks Had A Very Bad Day

Just as stocks had doubled after a trading pause lasting the duration of World War I, and the sky seemed the limit for Russian investors.... something very unpleasant happened.

"Alexa... Should I Buy Stocks?"

Are retail investors buttressing US stocks at current (and elevated) levels? A variety of indicators say "Yes". Our primary concern: fund flows can be quite seasonal, with Q1-to-early Q2 a peak period due to retirement account flows. After mid-April, this diminishes considerably. Then, we will need a reliable stream of positive headlines to keep retail investors in the game.

Why China Unexpectedly Hiked Rates 10 Hours After The Fed

The PBOC stressed that its interbank rate hikes simply followed the market's development, thus are not "true" policy rate hikes. Nevertheless, it also listed four classical rate-hike reasons for the interbank rate changes: the economic recovery, rising inflation (particularly that of housing), strong credit growth and Fed's rate hikes.

"Relief For Europe": Wall Street Analysts React To The Dutch Election

“It’s a big relief for markets, and this will prompt U.S. and U.K. investors to review their forecasts about the French presidential election. It’s positive for European assets, but without euphoria. It’s ‘back to business’ and we can focus on fundamentals and central banks again.”

Paul Brodsky: "Stagflation On The Horizon"

Logic and current trends suggest that declining output growth accompanied by higher prices will begin hitting economies and facing policy makers in the coming years. Markets should begin sniffing out this stagflationary macroeconomic setup this year.

What's A Money-Losing Company Worth?

All the chatter about one recent IPO got us thinking about an underappreciated question: “How exactly should you value a money losing company?”

Risk-Ignorance Reaches 23 Year High As Short Interest Hits Record Low

Investors are willing to pay more for a given level of risk than at any time since 1994 and short interest has collapsed to record lows... "if The Fed follows through on its convictions, look for a flat yield curve and a recession to wipe out 50% of equity prices for the third time in the past seventeen years."

A Critical Week For Markets Begins: Preview Of The Main Events

A pivotal, catalyst-filled week for global markets is now underway as investors brace for the second US interest rate hike in 2 quarter, a Dutch election, the expiration of the US debt ceiling deal, the imminent invoking of Article 50 by Theresa May, the first G20 finance ministers' meeting of the Trump era and perhaps the disclosure of Trump's proposed budget.

Things Just Got Even Weirder

Just when you thought the 8 year bull market for US stocks had shown us everything, something new comes along. 

Mega-Bears Smell Blood As Mall REITs Tumble

"There has been a steady drumbeat of negative reports from anchor retailers in the mall. As a result, when we keep hearing bad news it adds to the impression that there is a problem in the malls.”