Capital Markets

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10 Stats About The Last 10 Years





Think back over the last 10 years - how different was your life in April 2006?  While you may think your daily existence is largely the same (maybe the kids are older or you’re married now, but that about it…), consider what was actually different about your life in the spring of 2006:No iPhone;No Facebook (unless you were in college at the time); No Twitter; No Instagram; No Kim Kardashian; No Uber; No iPad.

 
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Taking The 'Petro' Out Of The Dollar





While the Arab countries floated themselves on oceans of petro-dollars forty years ago, they have little need for them now. So we must now turn our attention to China, which is well positioned to act as white knight to Saudi Arabia. China’s SAFE sovereign wealth fund could easily swallow the Aramco stake, and there are good strategic reasons why it should. A quick deal would help stabilise a desperate financial and political situation on the edges of China’s rapidly growing Asian interests, and keep Saudi Arabia onside as an energy supplier. China has dollars to dispose, and a mutual arrangement would herald a new era of tangible cooperation. The US can only stand and stare as China teases Saudi Arabia away from America’s sphere of influence.

 
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Iconic Hedge Fund Brevan Howard Slammed With $1.4 Billion In Redemption Requests





It has already been a very bad several years for hedge funds with 2016 starting off especially brutally, when moments ago we learned that it is about to get even worse for one of the most iconic names in the macro hedge fund space, Brevan Howard, which according to Bloomberg has been served with $1.4 billion in cash redemption requests.

 
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Fund CIO Explains "The Only Way To Make Money This Year"





"Central banks are mistaken. They think they’re targeting employment and inflation,” he continued. “They’re actually targeting asset prices and leverage.” When asset values rise, inflation and employment gradually increase. When assets fall, inflation collapses; it’s a coincidental variable. “At these levels of asset prices, it takes a lot of leverage to lift them further.” So the second central banks see a little inflation and curb leverage, rates rise and it all unwinds. “The only way to make money this year is to understand this sequence, and trade it.”

 
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Saudi Arabia: Nothing But A Lot Of Sand & Hot Air





Take away Saudi Arabia’s oil and all that’s left are a couple of Islamic shrines and a lot of sand and hot air.

 
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CEOs Are Hopeful But "Looking For A Macro Curveball"





It's not just Halliburton ("What we are experiencing today is far beyond headwinds; it is unsustainable") and Intel (12,000 layoffs amid re-evaluation of programs) that are facing up to a new normal very different from expectations. As Avondale Asset Management notes, having poured over 100s of earnings transcripts, while most CEOs don’t see signs of an imminent downturn, the environment still feels a little fragile. It seems that almost everyone is on high alert for a macro curve-ball...

 
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The SPV Loophole: Draghi Just Unleashed "QE For The Entire World"... And May Have Bailed Out US Shale





"The ECB stands ready to buy bonds from Euro Area issuers even when their parent companies are outside of the bloc. Already we can find a number of US, UK and Swiss headquartered names that issue out of SPVs incorporated in the Euro Area. If this trend to SPV issuance catches on, then the ECB’s policies will likely be very reflationary for all credit markets across the globe, and because of a likely refinancing wave – equity markets too."

 
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Obama Writes Op-Ed To "Blood Brother" Britain: Don't Leave EU (Or Else)





You know the British establishment is in full panic mode when not only do they allow President Obama to visit the nation just a month after he threw Cameron "distracted by other things" and his European neighbors under the bus over the collapse of Libya, but, despite 100 members of Parliament signing a letter telling Obama "not to interfere" with Britain's domestic affairs, The Telegraph prints an Op-Ed in which the lame-duck president lords it over the British citizenry with a veiled threat that should they "his friends" leave Europe, the "special relationship" could be in jeopardy as "now is a time for friends and allies to stick together."

 
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Stocks Soar As Corporations Are Defaulting On Their Debts Like It's 2008 All Over Again





The stock market and the economy are moving in two completely different directions right now. Even as stock prices soar, big corporations are defaulting on their debts at a level that we have not seen since the last financial crisis. In fact, this wave of debt defaults have become so dramatic that even mainstream media is reporting on it...

 
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Hungary Issues Sovereign Bonds Denominated In Yuan: Another Nail In US Reserve Currency Status?





Hungary priced the three-year bond at a yield of 6.25%, raising 1 billion yuan ($154 million), a small size for a sovereign deal. Bankers not involved in the transaction estimate that if Hungary issued debt in U.S. dollars and swapped the proceeds into yuan, it would have paid almost 1% less in annual interest costs. The dim-sum market isn’t an appealing market right now. Issuance of offshore yuan bonds has been falling consistently since Beijing’s decision to devalue its currency by 2% in August last year—the prospect of another yuan devaluation has sapped much of the appeal of such bonds for offshore investors.

 
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The Keynesian House Of Denial





The Eccles Building and its Washington/Wall Street acolytes have become a House of Keynesian Denial because the assumption that capitalism is an 80 pound recessionary weakling without the constant ministrations of the state is dead wrong.

 
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Hedge Funds Slammed: Tudor Hit With $1BN In Redemptions; NYC Pensions To Pull $1.5BN From Key Names





In a world in which the average hedge fund has failed to outperform the stock market for 8 years running, many have asked themselves what is the point of paying 2 and (not so much 20) to consistently underperform a global asset class which is now actively micromanaged by central banks themselves. And while redemptions from hedge funds have been growing in recent months, coupled with the first year since the crisis in which more hedge funds shut down than were created, it all culminated moments ago when Bloomberg reported that clients of none other than hedge fund legend Paul Tudor Jones have asked to pull more than $1 billion after three years of lackluster returns.

 
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