Capital Markets

Cudmore: "I’m Failing To See Why Dip-Buyers Aren’t Correct"

"U.S. equities are more likely to melt-up rather than melt-down in the short-term. Too many investors seem obsessed with the fact that U.S. stocks are "expensive" and "overvalued" when compared to historical metrics. I’m not disputing those statements. But when there’s an unprecedented amount of liquidity in global markets, then valuations at unprecedented levels don’t seem completely illogical."

S&P Futs Near All Time High On Strong Euro Data; Oil Drops On Trump's SPR Sale Plans

S&P futures rose alongside European stocks as Asian shares posted modest declines. The euro set a new six-month high and European bourses rose as PMI data from Germany and France signaled that the ECB will have to tighten soon as Europe's recovery remains on track, with the German Ifo business confidence printing at the highest level on record, and hinting at a GDP print in the 5% range.

Lower 48 Production Nears Cycle Highs As Rig Count Rises For 18th Straight Week

While much was made of this week's drop in US crude production, it was driven by an Alaskan supply drop, not the Lower 48 whose production is at Aug 2015 highs. WTI back above $50 on the back of more OPEC jawboning appears to have everyone convinced this time is different, but for the 18th week in a row US oil rig counts rose (by 8 to 720).

Jeff Ubben Steps Down As ValueAct Investment Head

Jeff Ubben, the activist investor who built the iconic ValueAct hedge fund into a $16bn powerhouse, is stepping down from daily oversight of its portfolio and handing the reins to his protégé, Mason Morfit, the FT reports.

 

Morgan Stanley: "Book Your Summer Holidays, But Put These Trades On First"

"Have you booked your summer holidays yet? If not, you probably should... Record-low readings of the VIX suggest that investors have little to worry about at the moment. In our view, the current low level of volatility seems unsustainable though, but the exact timing of a volatility rebound remains uncertain. Hence, it might make sense to put on trades that hedge against unexpected market moves over the summer."

Frontrunning: May 12

  • World stocks ease off record highs, Fed rate hopes boost dollar (Reuters)
  • Trump Escalates FBI Fight With Comey Attack. The FBI Fights Back (BBG)
  • Trump attacks on fired FBI chief meet resistance (Reuters)
  • China Stocks Are Tumbling Again. This Time, the World Doesn’t Care (BBG)
  • Yuan Becomes Oasis of Calm in China’s Volatile Markets (WSJ)