Capital Markets

An Odd Correlation Between Market Crashes And "Socialism"

While we were looking at various other Google trends, we stumbled across the following chart, which may have profound implications for not only U.S. capital markets, and what the media does or does not follow, but ostensibly the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and the overall future of the U.S.

G-20 Needs To "Man Up" Or Risk Sparking Market Chaos, Citi Warns

“Keeping the previous language would be very disappointing and would be viewed as either complacent or reflecting policy paralysis. [They need to] man up and tell member countries that monetary policy should be accompanied by fiscal expansion.”

Copper & Crude Are Soaring On China Hype

Amid hype hope that China will suddenly change course and unleash all new fiscal stimulus - because just what the nation needs is more ghost cities, ghost bridges to nowhere, and ghost infrastructure - has sparked panic-buying in crude and copper this morning...

R.I.P. M&A Boom: Goldman Fails To Get $2 Billion LBO Deal Done Even At Double-Digit Yields

On Thursday, we got still more evidence that the market's appetite for junk is waning when Goldman ran into trouble trying to get the financing done for the Vista/Solera deal. Solera - which is being sold to PE Vista Equity Partners - didn't have any trouble with a $1.9 billion leveraged loan offering last week (it was actually oversubscribed), but when Goldman tried to price $2 billion in bonds intended to help fund the LBO, things got dicey.

"Perma-bears" 2 - BofA Economist 0

"Capital markets seem to be pricing in a 50% or higher probability of a US recession. Our rates team has developed an adjusted yield curve measure that signals a 68% probability of recession."

"What Goes Up Can Also Come Down"

Our governments and central banks have created a financial  environment where traditional savers receive little to no interest on their cash deposits, and an economic environment whereby sophisticated investors are slowly withdrawing investment. This combination is creating deflationary trends around the world, and it is causing the Velocity of Money to plummet. Ironically, this central-bank induced economic combination, is causing central banks and governments to do even more of the same. Insanity at its best.

According To These 2 Charts, A Default Cycle In The US Is Now Inevitable

"Over the past 100 years, when defaults have risen above 4%, they have typically continued to rise close to 10% (i.e. a full default cycle). This is because of the tendency for credit stress to become self-fuelling: a rise in expected defaults pushes up financing costs, which tips some marginal borrowers over the edge, further increasing defaults and so on.

GoldCore's picture

Volatility, loss of confidence and central bank impotence stalk the capital markets. Gold pulls back in an expected retrenchment. Equity markets are still digesting what the world looks like. Absence of a strong Chinese domestic economy. A developing economy losing its easy credit. Oil prices adjusting to demand levels indicative of economic activity and, most tragically, the continuing proxy wars fought in the middle east as warmongers continue to slaughter innocent civilians.