Capital Markets

Marc To Market's picture

Is the Dollar Going on Summer Vacation?

Near-term dollar outlook, with some views on oil, Treasuries and S&P 500 thrown in for extra measure.  

Tyler Durden's picture

One-In-A-Billion "Hiccups" Are Happening All The Time, Citi Warns Something Is Wrong

When things that are supposed to happen once every 3 billion years (statistically speaking) start happening once every three months, or every three weeks, then something is definitively broken.

Tyler Durden's picture

This Alarming Indicator Is Back At A Level Last Seen 10 Days Before The Bear Stearns Collapse

One of the most disturbing and recurring themes highlighted on this site over the past year has been the ever greater disconnect between the worlds of equity and fixed income, whether in terms of implied volatility, or actual underlying risk.  It turns out there is be an even more acute, and far more concering divergence, which was conveniently pointed out overnight by Bank of America and which suggests that a Bear Stearns type event may be just a few days ahead.

Tyler Durden's picture

Did David Tepper Just Call The Market Top... And Is The Appaloosa Billionaire Losing His Touch

How did Tepper do in Q2? In a word: lousy. In another word: the man who recently was on CNBC pitching a 20x P/E multiple as the new normal, may have just called the market top.

Tyler Durden's picture

The Great China Ponzi - An Economic And Financial Trainwreck Which Will Rattle The World

There is an economic and financial trainwreck rumbling through the world economy. Namely, the Great China Ponzi. In all of economic history there has never been anything like it. It is only a matter of time before it ends in a spectacular collapse, leaving the global financial bubble of the last two decades in shambles. The resulting deflationary spiral will suck the global economy into its vortex. And Wall Street will go down for the count because this time the Fed will be utterly powerless to reverse the tide.

Tyler Durden's picture

6 Years And One Witch Hunt Later, Goldman Changes Its Mind On "Secret Sauce" Software

Despite the firm's rather checkered history when it comes to open source software, Goldman is reportedly set to make some of its technology available to clients. This new, enlightened stance comes six years after the bank accused a former employee of stealing code that, if it fell into the "wrong" hands, had the potential to "manipulate markets in unfair ways."

Tyler Durden's picture

8 Capital Markets 'Threats' To The Central Bank Narrative

The week's weakness started with the surprise yuan devaluation, but the moves in everythingfrom crude oil to U.S. government debt signal that investors and traders are telling the Fed to hold off for now. Will U.S. policymakers listen? Make no mistake: the Fed marches to its own data-dependent drum. These indicators will only tell you if the central bank has the right tempo to support markets.

Tyler Durden's picture

Be Afraid: This Is The Fed's Last Remaining Strategy


Tyler Durden's picture

The Cable Industry's Scariest Chart

Recent price volatility in the media sector got us wondering: is “Cord cutting” the home cable box in favor of online entertainment really hitting critical mass?

Tyler Durden's picture

Flushing Cash Into The Casino - The Media Stock Swoon Shows That It Works Until It Doesn't

During the most recent quarter debt issuance by US companies reached an all-time high, raising a question as to why companies still need to borrow so much after selling $7 trillion of U.S. debt securities since 2008. This weeks S&P Media index swoon leaves no doubt as to the answer. Companies have not been borrowing to grow; they have been borrowing in order to flush cash into the casino. Charles Ponzi once had a scheme that was not essentially different. Yes, and it worked until it didn’t.

Tyler Durden's picture

An Ex-Con's Advice To A Libor Rigger

"You wake up one morning and think 'I’m in prison.' And that’s when it hits you, and you suddenly realize that you are no longer in control of your life."

Tyler Durden's picture

What Kind Of Investor Are You? The Market Doesn't Care!

The #1 question we get after we review correlations every month is “Why are they so high relative to long term historical norms?” Our answer is that Federal Reserve policy has been an unusually important factor in asset prices since 2009. The unusually easy monetary policy since that time (and its planning, implementation, and effect on the economy) has been a powerful unifying story in capital markets. Now, as the Federal Reserve moves to return the economy to a more “Normal” policy stance, correlations should drop. That they have not yet moved convincingly lower is a sign that equity markets may want to see the Fed actually pull the trigger.

Tyler Durden's picture

Crude Carnage Continues As Goldman Warns "Storage Is Running Out"

WTI Crude is back below $45 again this morning - pressing towards 2015 and cycle lows -after Goldman Sachs' Jeffrey Currie warns 'lower for longer' is here to stay, with price risk "substantially skewed to the downside." His reasoning are manifold, as detailed below, but overarching is oversupply (Saudi Arabia has a challenge in Asia as it battles to maintain mkt share, the Russians are coming, andother OPEC members want a bigger slice) and, even more crucially, storage is running out. As Currie concludes, this time it is different. Financial metrics for the oil industry are far worse.

Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Stocks Tumble Despite Margin Debt Rises As Virtu Is Unleashed To Provide "Liquidity" After Citadel Ban

No lesser liquidity-providing high-frequency-trading never-a-losing-trade shop than Virtu financial has been 'allowed' to trade Chinese capital markets. Coming just days after Citadel's ban, one can only assume that Chinese regulators made a deal with the devil CEO Doug Cifu to levitate markets at any and every cost in order to pick up pennies in front of de-leveraging, over-margined army of farmers and grandmas now seeking exits. Sure enough for the second day in a row margin debt is on the rise again. The retail-dominated Chinese stock market will be ripe picking for the HFTs, as long as not to many are allowed and a tail-chasing flash-crash ensues... but for now its appears yesterday afternoon's selling pressure continues with CSI-300 down almost 2% at the open.

Tyler Durden's picture

Cash-Strapped Saudi Arabia Hopes To Continue War Against Shale With Fed's Blessing

In an irony of ironies, Saudi Arabia is set to take advantage of the very same forgiving capital markets that have served to keep its US competition in business as persistently low oil prices and two armed conflicts look set to strain the Kingdom's finances.

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